Metal Bulletin Research Steel forecasts

By Alistair Ramsay / September 08, 2017 / / Article Link

Not for the first time, almost any forecaster you ask will be busily upwardly revising their steel demand predictions for the Chinese market; again!

After partially recovering last year against all expectations, most forecasters seemed to figure it was a "blip" and that the downturn since steel demand peaked in 2013 would resume its inevitable course. The structural argument about industrial identity in China, away from heavy construction products to so-called "tertiary" (high-end manufacturing) goods may still be a good one, but it's clearly not damaging steel or base metals demand today.

It's easy in hindsight to unravel the bearish arguments of the consensus, lead even by the steel producers themselves such as CISA and the WSA, but for whatever reason, Chinese apparent steel consumption has been rising by roughly 5-15% so far this year, accelerating from the 2%...

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