Cejay Kim July 23, 2015 Category: Research This chart seems to be making its rounds so we decided to update it. Unfortunately, since we last published it, gold has plunged even more and the TSXVentures inches closer to its largest decline ever. The length of this bear market is also staggering, in four months' time it will have encompassed the total days of all the bear markets combined.Read More
Last week BP (NYSE: BP) released its Statistical Review of World Energy 2015. This report contains the most comprehensive global and country-level production and consumption data for all major sources of energy, and is used extensively as an authoritative source for energy statistics.Over the next few weeks I will cover various aspects of the report, but today I just want to provide a broad overvi...Read More
Last week the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015). The report presents updated projections for U.S. energy markets through 2040 based on six cases, defined as follows:Reference - Real gross domestic product (GDP) grows at an average annual rate of 2.4% from 2013 to 2040. North Sea Brent crude oil prices rise to $141/barrel (bbl) (2013 doll...Read More
Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.- Sir Winston Churchill, Nov. 10, 1942Winston Churchill uttered this now famous phrase during a speech after Great Britain began to score some victories in World War II. Given Germany's dominance at that time, Churchill was understandably attempting to manage expectations. He knew that Br...Read More
This year has been a tale of two halves in the energy sector. The Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE) was up 13.2% through July 1, versus a 6.8% gain for the S&P 500. But between July 1 and Dec. 26, the Energy Select Sector SPDR was down 20%, versus a gain of 5.9% in the S&P 500.This underperformance was a product of broad declines in the energy sector. Oil producers, oilfield services providers...Read More
2014 was not your ordinary year. There was a top energy story that stood head and shoulders above all the rest, but no clear runner-up. Here are my choices for the top five energy stories of 2014, followed by about 20 more that could have easily been on the list.1. Crude oil prices collapseOn July 30, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $104.29 per barrel (bbl). The next day it suffered a shar...Read More
When it comes to our supply of energy, there is truly no such thing as a free lunch. But just what is the real price we pay, and how does the cost compare with the value we receive? Today, I provide a rundown of the world's top three sources of energy, looking at some of the pros and cons of each. I will also list some of the major publicly traded companies that provide each energy source. Next we...Read More
Mining stocks have received a lot of attention over recent years, as more and more investors have been turning to this sector in search of attractive returns. But as witnessed last year, mining companies in particular can quickly make a turn for the worse, with rising operational costs and falling commodity prices making big impacts on bottom line returns [for more commodity news and analysis subs...Read More
Over the past two and a half decades, a real dichotomy has emerged in the global coal markets. In the Western world, coal consumption is on the decline. If you live in the West and read news articles about coal in the West, you might think that coal consumption is on the decline globally. But you would be very wrong.In the US, coal consumption has been flat to declining for the past 20 years. Just...Read More
This past week the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued a new regulation that would require states to cut carbon dioxide emissions from existing coal- and gas-fired power plants. States would need to reduce these emissions by an average of 30 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. Many are calling this President Barack Obama's boldest step yet to reduce US carbon dioxide emissions, and an atte...Read More
Blood and Gore RevisitedLast fall former Vice President Al Gore, along with David Blood, a senior partner at Gore's Generation Investment Management, contributed an editorial to The Wall Street Journal called The Coming Carbon Asset Bubble. I covered this in some detail in A Blood-and-Gore Forecast for Carbon, but the gist of the argument follows.The 2009 Copenhagen Accord stipulated that in order...Read More
Tunnel VisionPlease bear with me if I seem to have tunnel vision lately over the developing natural gas inventory situation. I think it's a huge story, and one that investors should watch closely over the next year or two.But over the longer term, there are other factors that will shape demand for natural gas. One of these is the fate of coal-fired power in the US.The Energy Information Administra...Read More
Natural Gas Gains at Coal's ExpenseIn 2003, 68 percent of the US electricity produced came from coal or natural gas. By 2012, that total was still 68 percent, but the mix between coal and natural gas had shifted. Coal had slipped from 50.8 percent of the overall electricity mix in 2003 to 37.4 percent in 2012, while natural gas moved from 16.7 percent to 30.3 percent.Coal's loss was almost exactly...Read More
In January 2013, I made the following five predictions for 2013, all of which have implications for investors in the oil and gas sector: Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices will average less in 2013 than in 2012.The Brent-WTI price differential - which has widened substantially in the past two years - will narrow in 2013.The average annual price of natural gas - as measured by the...Read More
2013 was undoubtedly a rough year for commodities, particularly for precious metals like gold and silver. There were, however, some bright spots in the space, including cocoa, soybean meal, orange juice, gasoline, and brent. For the coming year, analysts remain rather pessimistic on the broad commodity market. Goldman Sachs analysts have noted: "Last year, we pointed to the ongoing shift in our co...Read More
With Alcoa (AA) kicking off earnings season this week, investors will be keeping a close eye on the results of their favorite commodity stocks. On Tuesday, the largest U.S. aluminum producer reported a profit of $24 million in the third quarter - a significant uptick from the $143 million loss reported a year ago. Revenues for the company came in at $5.765 billion, beating analyst estimates of $5....Read More
In the commodity world, trade agreements and regulations can either make or break a particular market. Whether it be new alliances, tariffs, or taxes, each decision made by commodity producing countries can have a significant and material impact on the flow of goods and natural resources. Over recent years, one country has struggled to take a concrete stance on its trade agreements, going back and...Read More
Here in the US, we unsurprisingly tend to think of the energy markets in a US-centric fashion. Ask someone about the coal market, and they may describe coal as a fuel in decline. In fact, if you look at US coal consumption over the past ~50 years, that view would be supported.After growing steadily during the 1970s, 80s, and 90s, coal consumption in the US slowed, and then plunged 24 percent from...Read More
In last week's issue of The Energy Letter, we took a look at the recently released BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013.The focus then was on the production, consumption and reserves data forpetroleum. Now let's turn to the trends for coal, natural gas, nuclearpower and renewables. In this week's issue of The Energy Strategist, Iwill take a deeper dive into some of these areas and discuss th...Read More
When it comes to commodity stocks, there is perhaps no name more prolific than BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP). The Australian-based natural resource giant has operations across the world and has its hands in everything from iron ore and natural gas to aluminum and diamond mining. And while the company's over 150-year history is certainly a testament to its success, BHP Billiton has recently fallen out of...Read More