Gold suffers slips, logs 3rd straight weekly loss after jobs report

By Myra P. Saefong and Rachel Koning Beals / May 04, 2018 / www.marketwatch.com / Article Link

An earlier version of this column included an incorrect count on the number of weekly losses. Gold futures have now posted declines for three weeks in a row.

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Gold futures settled with a modest gain, following mixed trading on Friday, but tallied a loss for a third week in a row as investors showed a lukewarm reaction to the monthly U.S. jobs report.

The data came in a bit softer than expected in some areas, offering the Federal Reserve little reason to turn more aggressive with interest-rate hikes, but still largely support the Federal Reserve's path toward tightening policy.

The U.S. economy added a fewer-than-expected 164,000 jobs last month while the unemployment rate tipped below 4% for the first time since 2000. Inflation data within the report was also cooler than expected; the average hourly wage paid to American workers rose 4 cents, or 0.1%, to $26.84. The yearly rate of pay increase was unchanged at 2.6% for the third month in a row.

June gold GCM8, +0.25% rose $2, or nearly 0.2%, to settle at $1,314.70 an ounce. Prices, which settled Wednesday at a roughly two-month low, ended around 0.7% lower for the week.

The unemployment rate fell below 4%, but the Fed is "still expected to raise interest rates three more times this year," said Chintan Karnani, chief market analyst at Insignia Consultants.

The European Central Bank and Bank of England may not raise rates, however, he said, attributing part of the gains in the U.S. dollar to the widening interest-rate differential. A firmer dollar usually pushes down gold's price.

Read First-quarter global gold demand drops to lowest in a decade: report

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, +0.14% which measures the buck against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.2% at 92.58. The index this week grazed its highest level since late December. The 10-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.10% edged up to 2.952%. The closely watched yield has struggled to hold above the 3% line it hit late last month. Higher Treasury yields can spell weakness for gold, which, like other commodities, offers no yield.

U.S. stocks traded higher at the time gold futures settled. For the week, the Dow industrials DJIA, +1.39% was trading down 0.2%.

In a speech Friday, New York Fed President William Dudley said he's "happy where we are today" on inflation and would be surprised if recession hits in the next two years. Other Fed officials are scheduled to speak Friday, offering more opportunities to direct market interest-rate expectations.

San Francisco Fed President John Williams was set to appear at a monetary policy conference at the Stanford University's Hoover Institution at 3 p.m. Eastern. A host of Fed officials participate in an evening panel at that conference.

Trade issues also remain in focus as U.S. and Chinese officials were meeting for discussions on tariffs and other issues. Worries about trade hostilities between the top two global economies have roiled financial markets in recent months, underpinning some demand for haven gold.

Read: U.S. seeks $200 billion cut in China trade imbalance

Also see: Billionaire girds for stock-market crash by investing half his net worth in gold

Meanwhile, MarketWatch columnist Mark Hulbert said Friday that calendar behavior indicates this is the wrong time to buy gold.

In other metals trading, July silver SIN8, +0.66% added 0.4% to $16.519 an ounce. It saw a roughly 0.1% weekly rise.

July copper HGN8, +0.00% settled at $3.086 a pound, up nearly 0.2% for the session, ending the week 0.5% higher. July platinum PLN8, +0.85% rose 0.7% to $910.30 an ounce, with prices down around 0.7% for the week, and June palladium PAM8, +0.47% fell nearly 0.2% to $957.25 an ounce, poised for a weekly loss of roughly 0.6%.

In ETF action, the SPDR Gold Shares GLD, +0.21% traded 0.2% higher, but was ready to log a weekly decline of 10.8%. The iShares Silver Trust SLV, +0.52% added 0.3%, while the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners GDX, +0.00% nearly flat, with both ETFs also on track for losses on the week.

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