* reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=GBGDPQP economic poll data
* reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/cb-polls?RIC=GBBASEQP BoE poll dataBy Jonathan CableLONDON, Sept 4 (Reuters) - There is a one chance in fourthat Britain will leave the European Union in March without adeal, a Reuters poll found, while the Bank of England will waituntil after Brexit before raising borrowing costs again.Reuters Aug. 29-Sept. 3 poll was conducted as pressuremounts on British Prime Minister Theresa May, who is strugglingto sell what she calls her business-friendly Brexit to her ownparty and across a divided country.With less than two months before Britain and the EU want toagree on the terms of Britain's leaving the bloc, the two sidesare still sparring.When asked the probability of a disorderly Brexit, wherebyno agreement is reached by the end of March 2019, the medianforecast in the poll was 25 percent - unchanged from an Augustestimate.However, nine of 34 common contributors in this poll and thelast raised their numbers and the highest prediction was 60percent. Four reduced their odds and 21 left them unchanged."The chances of the UK leaving the EU has undoubtedly risenrecently, and we have become less confident of an orderly exit,"said Howard Archer at EY ITEM Club."Nevertheless, we still think it is more likely than notthat the UK and EU will come to a deal, although it could verywell be uncomfortably late for ratification by March 2019."With a deal considered likely, the chance of a recessionremains remote. Medians gave the likelihood of one in the comingyear as 15 percent, down from 20 percent given in July, andwithin two years at 25 percent.But as there is still little clarity on how Britain willtrade from April, and as a global trade war escalates, medianforecasts for post-Brexit economic growth were revised down fromAugust projections.Expansion is now put at 1.4 percent next year, down from 1.5percent given last month, and an unchanged 1.6 percent in 2020.British manufacturers had their weakest month in over twoyears and export orders suffered a rare decline in August, awarning that a world economic slowdown, as well as the approachof Brexit, is weighing on the country's factories. But that won't deter the Bank of England from raising BankRate soon after March, adding 25 basis points to take it to 1.0percent. It will stay there until another 25 basis points isadded in 2020, the poll found.Inflation jumped after the Brexit vote - in large partdriven by a fall in sterling - and is not expected to fall backto the central bank's 2 percent target until the end of nextyear.Asked when Bank Rate would reach 1.5 percent, the earliestdate given was 2020."It is likely to be a slow haul on rates with the BoEproceeding cautiously in the face of Brexit-relateduncertainty," said Peter Dixon at Commerzbank."Getting to 1.5 percent as quickly as possible may makesense on the basis that it gives the BoE more policyflexibility."
(Other stories from the Reuters long-term economic outlookpolls: )
(Polling by Nagamani Lingappa and Sarmista Sen, editing byLarry King)