PREVIEW-Brazil inflation seen grinding to a halt in August

By Kitco News / September 03, 2018 / www.kitco.com / Article Link


* reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=BRCPI%3DECI reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=****%3DECI poll dataBy Bruno FederowskiBRASILIA, Sept 3 (Reuters) - Consumer prices in Brazillikely stagnated in August as a slow economic recovery continuedto weigh on employment, a Reuters poll showed, suggesting thecentral bank should be in no rush to raise interest ratesdespite a currency sell-off.The benchmark IPCA price index probably held flat comparedwith July, according to the median of 19 forecasts. It would be the weakest reading since mid-July 2017,highlighting how price pressures remain muted after productshortages stemming from a late-May truckers' strike normalized.Five economists, in fact, expected an outright decline, withestimates ranging from -0.04 percent to -0.19 percent."The effect of the truckers' strike on food, fuel and energyprices appears to have faded," economists at BNP Paribas wrotein a report.That would keep the annual inflation rate, scheduled forrelease on Thursday at 9:00 a.m. (local time) at 4.30 percent,the survey showed, the same rate as in mid-August and below the4.48 percent reading at the end of July. The reading underscores the central bank's struggles toreignite price hikes in a weak economy, with the unemploymentrate hovering in double digits for months and companiesgrappling with idle capacity.Growth picked up slightly in the second quarter despite thetruckers' strike, but downward revisions to previous readingstriggered a string of forecast cuts for the year-end figure. Even the annual inflation forecast in the poll is likely tooverstate underlying inflation pressures as scarce rains droveregulators to keep power rates high. When stripped of volatileitems such as energy costs, so-called core inflation probablyremained at around 3.5 percent, UBS economists estimated.That is likely to keep the central bank from lifting ratesfrom an all-time low for the time being, even as uneasinessabout this year's presidential election added to an emergingmarket rout and pushed the Brazilian real to a 2-1/2 yearlow.Still, UBS expected core inflation to accelerate graduallyas the effect of a weaker currency spreads, driving year-endinflation to reach the midpoint of the official 2018 targetrange, 4.5 percent.Central bankers have repeatedly stressed that currency moveswill only drive monetary policy insofar as they affect otherprices or inflation expectations. According to a weekly centralbank survey, economists expect inflation to reach 4.16 percentby year-end. (Reporting by Bruno Federowski; Editing by Dan Grebler)

+55 11 5644 7768; Reuters Messaging:bruno.federowski.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)) Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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