Tech Talk for Monday August 21st 2023

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 21 points in pre-opening trade.

Palo Alto gained $25.34 to $235.02 after reporting higher than consensus quarterly results.

Hecla Mining dropped $0.14 to $4.44 following a mine shaft collapse at its Lucky Friday mine in Idaho.

XPeng advanced $0.78 to $15.76 after Bank of America upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy.

EquityClock's Daily Comment

Headline reads "The recent divergence of the path of corporate bonds versus the S&P 500 Index provides a rather concerning view of the potential trajectory of risk assets moving forward".

https://equityclock.com/2023/08/19/stock-market-outlook-for-august-21-2023/

The Bottom Line

Intermediate swing traders looking for continuation of an upward trend by North American equity markets were rewarded for their patience last week. The S&P 500 Index at 4,369 moved closer to technical support near 4,200. The TSX Composite Index at 19,818 moved closer to technical support near 19,400.

Economic focus this week is on the Jackson Hole Symposium from August 24th to August 26th. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech is the highlight. Recent price drops by long term Government Treasuries and related ETFs (e.g. TLT and IEF) hint that the FOMC is leaning toward a higher Fed Fund Rate that will remain elevated until at least late this year.

Economic News This Week

Source: www.investing.com

July U.S. Existing Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to slip to 4.15 million units from 4.16 million units in June.

Canadian June Retail Sales are released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday

July U.S. New Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to increase to 701,000 from 697,000 in June.

July Durable Goods Orders released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to drop 4.0% versus a gain of 4.7% in June.

Discussions on U.S. interest rates are held at the Jackson Hold Symposium from Thursday to Saturday.

August Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to slip to 71.2 from 71.6 in July

Selected Earnings News This Week

Source: www.investing.com

Focuses this week are on U.S. retailers and Canadian banks.

Trader's Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 18th 2023

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 17th 2023

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 18th 2023

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Technical Scores

Calculated as follows:

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2

          (Higher highs and higher lows)

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0

          (Not up or down)

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2

          (Lower highs and lower lows)

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score -2

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0

Below 20 day moving average: -1

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1

Mixed momentum indicators: 0

Down trending momentum indicators: -1

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower

Changes Last Week

Links offered by valued providers

Michael Campbell's Money Talks for August 19th

Michael Campbell's MoneyTalks - Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)

A Red Bar on the Homebuilders ETF AUGUST 18, 2023 AT 09:00 AM Greg Schnell

https://stockcharts.com/articles/canada/2023/08/a-red-bar-on-the-homebuilders-401.html

Heads Up! 10-Year Treasury Yield Could Go All the Way To FIVE Percent?! | The Final Bar (08.17.23 (Features comments by Tony Dwyer from Canaccord Genuity

Heads Up! 10-Year Treasury Yield Could Go All the Way To FIVE Percent?! | The Final Bar (08.17.23) - YouTube

We are close to bottoming from recent market decline, says Fundstrat’s Mark Newton

We are close to bottoming from recent market decline, says Fundstrat’s Mark Newton - YouTube

Is NOW the Right Time to be Buying These Commodities? | Your Daily Five (08.18.23)

Is NOW the Right Time to be Buying These Commodities? | Your Daily Five (08.18.23) - YouTube

The August volatility reflects seasonal profit-taking, says BMO’s Brian Belski

The August volatility reflects seasonal profit-taking, says BMO’s Brian Belski - YouTube

El-Erian on Markets, Economy and Powell at Jackson Hole

El-Erian on Markets, Economy and Powell at Jackson Hole - YouTube

August 18, 2023 | More Signs of China's Crumbling Economy: Bob Hoye

More Signs of China's Crumbling Economy - HoweStreet

August 17, 2023 | What are the Odds Fed Will Hike Rates? Mark Leibovit

What are the Odds Fed Will Hike Rates? - HoweStreet

August 17, 2023 | China's Economic Woes Slowing Demand for Oil: Josef Schachter

China's Economic Woes Slowing Demand for Oil - HoweStreet

Trading Desk Notes For August 19, 2023: Victor Adair

Trading Desk Notes For August 19, 2023 - HoweStreet

Burry, famous for ‘Big Short,’ bought bearish options against S&P, Nasdaq 100

Burry, famous for ‘Big Short,’ bought bearish options against S&P, Nasdaq 100 (yahoo.com)

Links from Mark Bunting and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com

These Stocks Could Rise Three-to-Five Times. – Uncommon Sense Investor

Have Programmed Trading & Investor Behaviour Irrevocably Changed the Investing Game? – Uncommon Sense Investor

Technical Notes for Friday

Base Metals ETF XBM.TO moved below intermediate support at $Cdn$18.81.

Israel iShares $EIS moved below $54.01 setting an intermediate downtrend.

Lithium ETF $LIT moved below $57.36 extending an intermediate downtrend.

Colgate $CL an S&P 100 stock moved below $73.75 extending an intermediate downtrend.

Constellation Software $CSU.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$2,634.66 and $2,592.00 setting an intermediate downtrend.

Thomson Reuters $TRI.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below intermediate support at Cdn$170.56.

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer added 1.00 on Friday, but plunged 20.00 last week to 35.40. It changed from Neutral to Oversold on a drop below 40.00. Daily trend remains down.

The long term Barometer added 0.60 on Friday, but dropped 9.40 last week to 54.20. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00. Daily trend remains down.

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.44 on Friday and plunged 22.51 to 37.44 last week to 37.44. It changed from Neutral to Oversold on a drop below 40.00. Daily trend remains down.

The long term Barometer was unchanged on Friday and down 8.81 last week to 48.46. It remains Neutral. Daily trend remains down.

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed