Tech Talk for Thursday March 21st 2019

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 10 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for Weekly Initial Jobless Claims was 225,000, down from upwardly revised 230,000 last week. Actual was 221,000. Consensus for March Philly Fed Index was an increase to 5.0 versus a drop of 4.1 in February. Actual was an increase to 13.7.

Micron gained $1.38 to $41.51 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal second quarter earnings. The company also offered positive third quarter guidance.

Apple added $1.18 to $189.35 after Needham upgraded the stock to Strong Buy from Buy. Target price was raised to $225 from $180.

Biogen plunged $83.18 to $237.68 after the company discontinued its Alzheimer treatment trial.

Darden Restaurants (DRI $108.65) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus fiscal third quarter sales and earnings.

EquityClock's Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/03/20/stock-market-outlook-for-march-21-2019/

Note seasonality charts on KBW Bank Index, Crude Oil days of Supply and Gasoline days of Supply.

Observations

The U.S. Dollar Index and its related ETN dropped sharply following release of the Federal Reserve's statement at 2:00 PM EDT. Good for commodities and commodity stocks, bad for bank stocks!

StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:15: Quiet. No intermediate breakouts. Breakdown: $BXP

Editor's Note: After 10:15 AM EDT (mainly after 2:00 PM EDT), short term breakdowns included a wide variety of bank stocks as well as BWA and DIS. Breakouts included NFLX, MDLZ, HES and OXY.

Days of supply of oil showing signs of a much earlier than average peak, bullish for the seasonal trade in the energy sector. $XLE $XOP $OIH

Fed statement prompted strength in commodity prices. $GSG

Editor's Note: Base metal prices and related ETN (Copper, zinc, aluminum) were notably stronger

Energy stocks $XOP leading the commodity stock advance. Move above $31.29 completes a base building pattern

Ditto for "gassy" stocks! $FCG completed a base building pattern on a move above $17.70.

Emerging Markets iShares $EEM moved above $43.73 extending an intermediate uptrend. Responding to U.S. Dollar weakness

Russia ETF $RSX moved above $21.40 extending an intermediate uptrend. Responding to U.S. Dollar weakness/crude oil price strength.

Canadian energy stocks also strengthen. Cenovus $CVE.CA moved above $12.20 extending an intermediate uptrend.

U.S. banks under pressure following Fed news and flattening of the yield curve. $KRE $KBE $XLF

.

Editor's Note: The drop in yield on long term Treasuries and higher commodity prices caused TIPs (inflation protected securities) to soar

Trader's Corner.

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 20th 2019

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 20th 2019

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 20th 2019

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

http://www.equityclock.com/about/seasonal-advantage-portfolio/

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

The Barometer dropped 7.15 to 77.20 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

TSX Momentum Barometer

The Barometer dropped 1.68 to 69.75 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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