Tech Talk for Tuesday August 15th 2023

August 15, 2023 / www.timingthemarket.ca / Article Link

Equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 30 points at 8:35 AM EDT.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT:

Consensus for the August Empire State Manufacturing Survey was a drop of 0.75 versus a gain of 1.10 in July. Actual was a drop of 19.0.

Consensus for U.S. July Retail Sales was an increase of 0.4% versus a gain of 0.2% in June. Actual was an increase of 0.7%. Consensus for Retail Sales ex auto sales was a drop of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.2% in June. Actual was an increase of 1.0%.

The Canadian Dollar was unchanged at US 74.20 cents following release of Canada's July Consumer Price Index at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.1% in June. Actual was an increase of 0.6%. On a year-over-year basis consensus was an increase of 2.7% versus a gain of 2.8% in June. Actual was an increase of 3.3%.

Discover Financial dropped $5.00 to $97.65 after announcing resignation of its Chief Executive Officer.

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DR Horton gained $3.70 to $126.98 after Berkshire Hathaway confirmed additional purchase of the stock.

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Home Depot dropped $2.06 to $327.89 despite reporting higher than consensus second quarter revenues and earnings. The company also lowered guidance for the third quarter.

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EquityClock's Daily Comment

Headline reads "Risk aversion may not be present in the bond or precious metal markets, but we can certainly pick out evidence in the equity and commodity markets".

http://www.equityclock.com/2023/08/14/stock-market-outlook-for-august-15-2023/

 

Technical Notes

Shanghai Composite Index $SSEC moved below 3,144.25 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Hong Kong iShares $EWH moved below $18.51 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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South Korea iShares $EWY moved below $62.48 completing a double top pattern.

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VALE $VALE one of the world's largest base metals producers moved below support at $12.69

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Marvell $MRVL a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $56.53 completing a double top pattern.

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Trader's Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 14th 2023

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 14th 2023

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 14th 2023

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Links offered by valued providers

BEWARE! The Mega-Caps Are Showing a Bearish Bias | DecisionPoint Trading Room (08.14.23)

BEWARE! The Mega-Caps Are Showing a Bearish Bias | DecisionPoint Trading Room (08.14.23) - YouTube

 

What is the Fed's Next Move? Here's One Thing to Watch | Halftime by Chaikin Analytics (08.14.23)

What is the Fed's Next Move? Here's One Thing to Watch | Halftime by Chaikin Analytics (08.14.23) - YouTube

 

Interesting Seasonal and Technical Charts

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Seasonal Chart Analysis

Analysis of the United States 12 Month Natural Gas Fund (NYSE:UNL) seasonal charts above shows that a Buy Date of July 27 and a Sell Date of October 15 has resulted in a geometric average return of 1.48% above the benchmark rate of the S&P 500 Total Return Index over the past 13 years. This seasonal timeframe has shown positive results compared to the benchmark in 9 of those periods. This is a good rate of success and the return strongly outperforms the relative buy-and-hold performance of the stock over the past 13 years by an average of 19.89% per year.

On the charts, UNL at $11.87 recently moved above $11.94 to complete a base building pattern. Technical score is 6:

Score

Intermediate trend: Up 2

Relative strength Positive 2

Above/Below 20 day Moving Average: Above 1

Daily momentum indicators: Moving Higher 1

Total score 6

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Fundamental Note: Units are highly sensitive to news about hurricanes entering the Gulf of Mexico at this time of year.

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

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The intermediate term Barometer added 0.20 to 55.60. It remains Neutral.

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The long term Barometer dropped 0.80 to 62.80. It remains Overbought. Daily downtrend was extended.

 

TSX Momentum Barometers

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The intermediate term Barometer dropped 5.29 to 54.63. It remains Neutral.

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The long term Barometer dropped 2.20 to 55.07. It remains Neutral.

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed


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