Trade Rhetoric Likely To Push Prices Higher
(Kitco News) - Participants in the Kitco News weekly gold surveylook for the price of the metal to rise next week amid ongoing rhetoricpointing to a potential trade war between the U.S. and China and after a softU.S. jobs report.
Wall Street
Bullish
Bearish 
Neutral VS
Main Street
Bullish Bearish Neutral The metal has chopped up and down lately onheadlines about the U.S. and China slapping higher tariffs on one another’sgoods. As the week wound down, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened tariffson another $100 billion of Chinese goods, while China warned it would respondwith a “fierce counter strike.”
Additionally, the Labor Department reported Fridaythat U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose a smaller-than-forecast 103,000 in March.Expectations had been for closer to 200,000 new jobs.
As of 11 a.m. EDT, Comex June gold was up 0.6% forthe week so far to $1,335.70 an ounce.
Fourteen market professionals took part in theweekly survey. Eight respondents, or 57%, called for gold prices to rise overthe next week. Another two voters, or 14%, looked for gold to fall, while four,or 29%, see a sideways market.
Meanwhile, 663 voters responded in an online MainStreet survey. A total of 312 respondents, or 47%, predicted that gold priceswould be higher in a week. Another 261 voters, or 39%, said gold will fall,while 90, or 14%, see a sideways market.
“The disappointing jobs number is going to slowdown the rally in the dollar that we saw in recent weeks,” said Phil Flynn,senior market analyst with at Price Futures Group. “Because of that, gold isgoing to benefit.”
Flynn also cited geopolitical worries, with Russiaand Western nations slapping sanctions on one another. He added: “Sometimeswhen the world goes crazy, gold is the best place to be.”
Others cited ongoing worries about a trade warbetween the U.S. and China. When market jitters increase, equities lately havetended to fall while gold rises, and vice-versa.
“With Trump talking more pain, why would you wantto be short [bearish]?” said Sean Lusk, director of commercial hedging WalshTrading. “Because of weakness in the stock market, this is a buy down here [ingold].”
George Gero, managing director with RBC WealthManagement, also said he sees gold “higher next week as tariff news andgeopolitics continue.”
Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities brokers withRJO Futures, is also bullish.
“We’re essentially making higher lows,” Pavilonissaid. “I still think we have a really good chance to be over $1,400 by the endof the year.”
Others, meanwhile, suggest gold could dip on ideasthat there eventually will be some resolution to the trade war.
“The temperature on the trade war is slowlyfalling,” said Adam Button, ForexLive managing director, who sees lower pricesover the next week.
Charlie Nedoss, senior market strategist withLaSalle Futures Group, also sees gold falling, citing technical weakness. “Thedollar is performing well,” he added.
Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures andOptions LLC, describes himself as neutral on gold prices in the short term dueto the volatility with news-driven headlines about trade tensions. Gold latelyseems to rise one day about fears about a trade war, then give up gains whentensions seem to abate, then repeat the process over again.
“I see price swings up and price swings down ingold next week,” Grady said. “The market is so news-driven because of all thetariff talk....I see no difference between rolling the dice and trading thismarket right now.”
By Allen SykoraFor Kitco News
Follow @AllenSykora
asykora@kitco.com Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.