When my colleagues and I at the Far Eastern Economic Review and other news organizations covered Hong Kong's return to Chinese rule on July 1, 1997, many of us were cautiously optimistic that China would keep its promise under the Basic Law that the former British colony would retain its autonomy under a system of 'One Country, Two Systems'.
That confidence began to erode last year when millions of protesters took to the streets to vent their anger over a proposed Chinese extradition law that would see those accused of certain crimes in Hong Kong extradited to mainland China and tried in the country's politicized court system.
The coronavirus pandemic put an end to the massive protests, but on the eve of the 31st anniversary this week of the June 4 massacre in Tiananmen Square, China has vowed to impose a new national security law in Hong Kong that would override Hong Kong's autonomy and system of self-governance and crack down on dissent.
The national security law - approved by the National People's Congress on May 28 - is designed to quash unrest in Hong Kong and suppress subversion, secession, terrorism, treason, and any other acts that China views as a challenge to its authority. These could include the expression of views in public that are unpopular in China and the banning of activist groups - sending a chill over the civil liberties and free speech Hong Kong has enjoyed for the last two decades. Under the new legislation, China's central government security authorities can set up in the city.
For those of us who hold Hong Kong close to our hearts and dared to hope in its future - the news is sickening. Hong Kong was my home in the late 1960s, late 1980s, and throughout most of the 90s. It is one of the most exciting cities on earth where anything feels possible and the energy burns bright. It was where my eldest son was born, where many of my friends still live, and where I had hoped to spend at least some of my years in retirement.
For companies that do business in Asia, the tightening of China's grip on Hong Kong raises more practical questions and ratchets up uncertainty over the territory's role as a financial center. It also threatens to drive the U.S.-China relationship - already at a low point - even deeper into the ground. The world's two-largest economies have been locked in a trade war for more than a year, and are blaming each other for mishandling the coronavirus pandemic that has paralyzed the globe and killed more than 100,000 people in the U.S. alone. The U.S. has also imposed restrictions on trade and technology and continues to target China's tech giant Huawei.
The U.S. State Department lashed out at Beijing last week - with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stating that Hong Kong no longer enjoys the "high degree of autonomy" it once had and therefore no longer warrants special treatment under U.S. laws. (Under its special relationship with the U.S., Hong Kong receives preferential treatment on trade, with few tariffs.) U.S. President Donald Trump declared on May 29 that Washington would end its special relationship with the city and would begin rolling back its special trade and financial privileges. Although there are few details on what Trump plans to do, the U.S. could start to subject Hong Kong to some of the same restrictions on trade and law enforcement it imposes on China.
Some warn Beijing's move could put the phase one trade deal with the U.S. at risk. But China struck back against the U.S. in an editorial on Saturday in The People's Daily, the newspaper controlled by the Chinese Communist Party. "This hegemonic act of attempting to interfere in Hong Kong affairs and grossly interfere in China's internal affairs will not frighten the Chinese people and is doomed to fail."
China has been exerting its influence more aggressively in recent months as the rest of the world grapples with the pandemic. It has taken a more bellicose tone toward Taiwan, which it sees as its territory, denouncing last month the swearing in for a second term of Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen. China has also recently said it would increase national defence spending by 6.6% this year (lower than the 7.5% increase last year, but still sizeable), and has clashed with Indian troops along a contested border in the Himalayas.
Beijing has also flexed its muscle in the South China Sea. China's Coast Guard reportedly rammed a fishing boat recently in contested waters off Vietnam; Chinese ships surrounded a Malaysian offshore oil rig; and it created new administrative districts to rule the islands it controls in the Spratly islands off the coast of the Philippines and Malaysia.
President Xi Jinping has been extending his authoritarian hold on power for years but is using the current turmoil of the coronavirus outbreak to make bold moves in China's sphere of influence and erode Hong Kong's special status. Whether we are on the brink of a new Cold War with China remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: We're not about to see China back down on Hong Kong.