The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view. We also review our price forecasting accuracy for the second quarter 2020.Q2 2020 price forecast performance review According to the results of Fastmarkets' Apex for the second quarter of 2020 published this week, Fastmarkets' base metals research team was the second most accurate price forecaster for nickel (99.06%), lead...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.Aluminium: Comfortable consolidationAluminium appears comfortable consolidating for the moment, and this will leave prices in a stronger position to challenge overhanging long-term trend-line resistance from the May 2018 high, which stands at $1,670 per tonne currently.Copper: Consolidation unlikely to lastCopper reached its...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.Aluminium: Upside breakout last weekThe price of aluminium on the London Metal Exchange surprised us with a break to the upside in the week ended July 10, when prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange raced to three-and-a-half-year highs. While we think there is more short-term upside potential if technical and liquidity fact...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.?EUR? US domestic prices for hot-rolled coil have moved down in line with our expectations, averaging $508 per tonne in July compared with our forecast price of $519 per tonne. While we are forecasting coil price increases in August, we have revised our expectations downward. Although steelmakers are reporting improving dema...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.The price for steel scrap in China has risen recently, amid high mill operating rates and at a time of heavy rain, but it remains at a premium to hot metal, we estimate. Heavy rains in China tend to increase the moisture content of iron ore stockpiles, which can cause issues during the sintering process, and this may have en...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.Trading activity at a minimumWelded pipe trading activity has been slow globally over July 2020, and while the holiday-period slowdown is partly to blame in several countries, disruptions to projects caused by the Covid-19 pandemic were obviously the main cause. In this context, substrate costs were driving much of the prici...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts is ready to view.Global markets for coated steel continue to run at different speeds with regards to pricing at the start of the summer season in the northern hemisphere. In Asia, prices continue to rise although, as we note in our Asia analysis this month, much of this is merely cost inflation with steelmakers passing on higher substrate cos...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.Heavy rains in China, which can negatively affect iron ore supplies and pig iron production, and bolster demand for scrap, continued in July 2020. Although this was more an upside risk to our bearish base case one month ago, Chinese scrap prices remained strong. The firm prices gained support from the rains and from a more g...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.This year has come with several unexpected events which increased the bullish case for iron ore prices, while the Chinese government's spending on infrastructure is likely to boost iron ore demand and add upside support to prices. But supply disruptions and a demand surge which caused price spikes are now easing. We do not e...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' teamof analysts are ready to view.Chinese crude steel production outperformed our expectations with its recovery since the Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns. Crude steel output was up by 2.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2020 to 503 million tonnes, and we have revised upward what was initially a more bearish forecast for this year. We now estimate that product...Read More
The latest forecasts from Fastmarkets' team of analysts are ready to view.Prolonged flooding in China could limit the use of construction steel and drag down demand for steel rebar in the short term, which in turn could damp the demand for iron ore. So far, it has been reported that steel mills in the affected regions have continued to operate as normal. The floods have, however, caused a few days...Read More
The latest forecast from Fastmarkets' team of analysts is ready to view.As we enter the summer season across the northern hemisphere, almost half a year has passed since the Covid-19 pandemic began to seriously affect Europe and the United States.One would not really be able to tell that such a dramatic event had occurred by looking at stainless steel prices, however, because they are more or less...Read More
The aluminium industry neither deserves nor can afford the shock that would come from the United States' reintroduction of Section 232 tariffs on imports from Canada, according to Aluminum Association president and chief executive officer Tom Dobbins. Citing the latest government data from the US Census Bureau, Dobbins noted that US imports of primary aluminium from Canada were nearly 5% lower in...Read More
Domestic prices for hot-rolled coil in Northern Europe increased day on day on Thursday August 6, despite the seasonal market slowdown, sources told Fastmarkets.Fastmarkets' daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, was calculated at ?,?415.00 ($491.66) per tonne on Thursday, up by ?,?0.83 per tonne day on day from ?,?414.17 per tonne on Wednesday.Thursday's index was...Read More
Chilean copper commission Cochilco has increased its forecast for the average copper price this year to $2.62 per lb, from $2.40 per lb previously, due to the recovery in the Chinese economy and a drop in inventories, it said on Thursday August 6.For next year, however, Cochilco has reduced its average copper price estimate to $2.85 per lb, from the $2.90 per lb it published in its previous market...Read More
The three-month nickel price on the London Metal Exchange was higher at the close of trading on Thursday August 6, nearing resistance at $14,500 per tonne despite moderate turnover, while lead futures continued to rise against a positive forward curve.Nickel's outright price on the LME closed at $14,478 per tonne on Thursday afternoon, climbing from an intraday low of $14,290 per tonne, while turn...Read More
Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange were trading consistently higher than $1,700 per tonne this week, for the first time since the start of 2020. But with market fundamentals poor, and a challenging global macroeconomic backdrop going into 2021, market participants were uncertain whether the uptrend would be sustainable.The three-month aluminium price rose to $1,782.50 per tonne on Wedne...Read More
Turkish billet prices continued to increase over the past week on rising imported scrap values, however, demand for the material was limited, sources said on Thursday August 6.Export billet prices from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) continued to increase this week in line with higher offers from mills, which global rising import scrap costs supported.Suppliers in the CIS raised their...Read More
Turkish domestic rebar prices have increased sharply over the past week in response to rising scrap costs and a weakening lira, sources said on Thursday August 6.Fastmarkets' weekly price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar) domestic, exw Turkey was 3,670-3,770 lira ($523-537) per tonne on Thursday, up from 3,550-3,600 lira per tonne last week, including 18% VAT.The mills in the Istanbul,...Read More
Turkish rebar and wire rod export prices have increased over the past week amid rising imported scrap costs, but demand was still poor, sources said on Thursday August 6.Turkish steel mills raised their offers for rebar exports to $435-440 per tonne fob on actual weight basis, around $5 per tonne higher than last week, however, customers were only bidding at $420-425 per tonne for the material, Fa...Read More