Support from better Chinese PMIs This week got off to a positive start with both the official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs for China rebounding in September and also beating consensus expectations. But all eyes are now turning to US-China trade talks set to resume at a high level in October. Progress on this front, combined with better manufacturing data would boost base metal sentiment and price...Read More
Base metals prices supported by better than expected Chinese PMI data LME three-month base metals prices started this week a tad stronger. The positive sentiment in the complex was supported by a better than expected Chinese manufacturing PMIs, both of which beat expectations in September and rose from the August level. The official PMI nudged up to 49.8 while the Caixin PMI rose to 51.4. Speculat...Read More
Aluminium The LME three-month aluminium price remains under pressure on Tuesday October 1, testing to a fresh multi-year low of $1,713.50 per tonne, although there are signs of indecision at these levels. Momentum indicators suggest prices are attempting to stabilize. The stochastics fast line has turned higher, as has the RSI, which at 30 is approaching oversold territory. Having broken belo...Read More
In this week’s analysis, we discuss the main fundamental trends of the global copper market in the first half of the year, based on the latest ICSG statistics, while highlighting our projections for the remainder of the year. Refined market balance The ICSG estimates that the refined copper market was in an ‘apparent’ deficit of 220,000 tonnes in H1 2019, compared with a smaller def...Read More
Resistance above $2,100 per tonne being eroded, uptrend developing Lead prices are making headway above $2,100 per tonne, which, along with exchange stocks falling again, is a sign that the underlying deficit is starting to bite more. Supply disruptions and environmental restrictions at mines and smelters are partially responsible for the tightness. Mine supply disruptions have kept lead market ti...Read More
This week we review the highlights of our Nickel Spotlight report published late last week in which we put the key bullish and bearish drivers of the market this year into perspective. Bullish Since the 2016 low at $7,550 per tonne, LME nickel has traded within a succession of higher highs and lows. It has been no different this year. We expect nickel’s robust fundamentals to continue support...Read More
In this week’s analysis, we review the major positive and negative aspects of the tin market, which either have shaped the price direction in recent months or will influence the outlook for the rest of 2019 and beyond. Positives The WBMS pegged the global refined tin market in a deficit of 5,300 tonnes in the first seven months of 2019. This is slightly deeper than a deficit of 5,000 tonnes i...Read More
LME spreads tighten... The LME zinc forward curve has tightened recently with the cash/three-month backwardation flaring out to around $50 per tonne on Monday September 30, compared with $7 per tonne on September 20. While tighter spreads and the modest 0.7% decline in open interest across the week suggest an element of short covering, they also reflect falling availability; on-warrant stocks dipp...Read More
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Here are five Fastmarkets MB stories you might have missed on Friday September 27 that are worth another look.The Chinese domestic spot battery-grade lithium carbonate market temporarily halted its downtrend on Thursday September 26 in the run-up to the National Day holiday (October 1-7), while the lithium hydroxide price in China held week on week on limited transactions in the spot market.China'...Read More
A lack of trading activity in most sales outlets coupled with the ongoing decline in the import scrap segment sent global billet prices down in the week ended Friday September 27.Southeast AsiaSoutheast Asia remained the most active billet import market last week, with buyers continuing to book cargoes while demand from other parts of the world was soft.Several cargoes of Russian billet shipped to...Read More
A lack of trading activity in most sales outlets coupled with the ongoing decline in the import scrap segment sent global billet prices down in the week ended Friday September 27.Southeast AsiaSoutheast Asia remained the most active billet import market last week, with buyers continuing to book cargoes while demand from other parts of the world was soft.Several cargoes of Russian billet shipped to...Read More
Here are five Fastmarkets MB stories you might have missed on Friday September 27 that are worth another look.The Chinese domestic spot battery-grade lithium carbonate market temporarily halted its downtrend on Thursday September 26 in the run-up to the National Day holiday (October 1-7), while the lithium hydroxide price in China held week on week on limited transactions in the spot market.China'...Read More
Here are five Fastmarkets MB stories you might have missed on Friday September 27 that are worth another look.The Chinese domestic spot battery-grade lithium carbonate market temporarily halted its downtrend on Thursday September 26 in the run-up to the National Day holiday (October 1-7), while the lithium hydroxide price in China held week on week on limited transactions in the spot market.China'...Read More
There will be no reports during first week of October. Come back on Monday, October 7th for the next report release. The Bottom LineWorld equity markets moved lower last week with elevated volatility. Equity markets have a history of elevated volatility at this time of year with a flat/downward bias from mid-July to mid-October. The weakest period for North American equity markets is f...Read More
The Mexican government has announced a plan to gradually eliminate an existing safeguard duty of 15% on several steel products.The duty on steel imports classified under 186 tariff codes will remain at 15% until September 2021, when it will be reduced to 10%, according to the country's...Read More
Steelmaking restrictions planned for China's northern region - where the concentration of mills are the highest in the country - during the autumn-winter period appear to be looser this year compared with the corresponding period of last year.While no official guidelines have emerged, a draft of measures to control air pollution in 28 cities in the region during the October-March period has been c...Read More
Turkey produced 22.55 million tonnes of crude steel in January-August 2019, down by 10.46% from 25.19 million tonnes in the corresponding eight-month period of last year, the Turkish Steel Producers Association (T???oeD) said last week.The drop in output was largely attributed to subdued end-user demand and weakening export markets for Turkish steel.The European Commission (EC) imposed definitive...Read More
Following a flip in global steel and ferrous trade flow trends last year caused by economic jitters in Turkey, trade defenses by the United States and production cuts in China, this year it is steel prices that are turning upside down. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices are now below rebar prices in a phenomenon rarely seen outside of the Chinese domestic markets. HRC import prices in Vietnam have...Read More