Gold has delivered an extraordinary 2025, with prices climbing over 60% year-to-date and repeatedly setting new all-time highs, closing the year near $4,350 per ounce. Central bank purchases remained robust, real yields stayed negative, and investor demand — both Eastern and Western — provided consistent support.
As we enter 2026, the question for experienced investors isn't whether the bull market continues, but at what pace and with which underlying drivers. To answer that, I've reviewed the latest Q4 2025 forecasts from leading analysts and institutions — the ones whose views have historically carried weight in precious metals circles.
This isn't speculation or hype. It's a synthesis of recent, public commentary from respected sources, focusing on gold price prediction 2026, gold price outlook 2026, and the broader gold outlook 2026.
Jeffrey Christian, CPM Group: Continued Rise with Volatility
Jeffrey Christian, managing partner at CPM Group and one of the most cited precious metals analysts, has been consistent in his bullish stance through late 2025.
In a December 2, 2025, IndexBox interview and a November 7 CNBC appearance, Christian described 2025's rally as part of a consolidation phase within a longer bull market. He expects volatility to persist but prices to trend higher in 2026, driven by ongoing investor anxiety and economic uncertainty.
Earlier in Q4 (October 31 CNBC TV18), Christian forecast gold potentially reaching $4,500 by year-end 2025 and averaging $5,000 in 2026 — a view he has maintained into December.
His reasoning: Hostile economic and political conditions will keep investment demand elevated, even as short-term pullbacks occur.
J.P. Morgan Research: $5,055 Average by Q4 2026
J.P. Morgan's commodities team raised eyebrows in late 2025 with an aggressive call.
In their Q4 update (reported by Reuters and Kitco in December), they project gold averaging $5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026, with central bank and investor demand averaging 566 tonnes quarterly.
The bank cites continued ETF inflows, Eastern buying, and a softer dollar environment as key supports. Longer-term, they see $6,000 by 2028.
Goldman Sachs and Bank of America: $5,000+ Scenarios
Goldman Sachs quietly revised upward in December 2025 (TheStreet reporting, December 19), aligning with a $5,000+ scenario for 2026 if macro tailwinds persist.
Bank of America followed suit, bumping its 2026 target to $5,000 (average $4,400 earlier in the year), citing similar demand dynamics.
Both emphasize structural factors: central bank diversification, declining real yields, and portfolio reallocation away from overvalued equities.
World Gold Council: 5–15% Upside from Current Levels
The World Gold Council's "Gold Outlook 2026" report (released December 4, 2025) takes a more measured view.
Their analysis suggests gold could rise 5–15% in 2026 from late-2025 levels (implying $4,500–$5,000 range), depending on the depth of any economic slowdown and pace of rate cuts.
They highlight ongoing geoeconomic uncertainty and central bank demand as supportive, but note potential headwinds from stronger growth or reduced risk aversion.
Consensus Themes Across Analysts
Despite varying targets ($4,500–$5,055 average for 2026), several common threads emerge from Q4 commentary:
Central Bank Demand Remains Structural
Expected 700–850 tonnes annually — down slightly from 2024/2025 peaks but still historically elevated.
Investor Flows Have Room to Grow
ETF holdings are rising but remain below 2020 highs. Western inflows could accelerate if equities correct.
Real Yields and Dollar Weakness
Negative real yields and a softer dollar trend provide tailwinds.
Supply Constraints
Flat mine production and declining discovery rates support higher prices longer-term.
Volatility Expected
Most analysts warn of sharp pullbacks along the way — Christian specifically calls volatility "far from over."
Which Gold Stocks Benefit Most from Higher Gold Prices?
Higher sustained gold prices disproportionately favor certain types of companies:
Low-Cost Producers: Margin expansion is dramatic. Names with AISC <$1,200 see cash flow explode.
Royalty/Streaming Companies: Pure leverage to price without operational risk.
Developers with Robust Economics: Projects that were marginal at $2,500 gold become highly economic at $4,500+.
High-Grade Juniors in Tier-1 Jurisdictions: Discovery cost advantage amplifies upside.
The stocks that tend to outperform in these environments share clean balance sheets, proven management, and clear paths to value realization.
Implications for 2026 Positioning
The collective analyst view suggests 2026 could deliver another year of gains — potentially 10–20% on average for the metal, with sharper moves possible in equities.
But as always, the path won't be straight. Volatility will create buying opportunities in quality names during corrections.
For experienced investors, the message is clear: Focus on companies with strong fundamentals trading at reasonable valuations relative to expanded margins. The re-rating potential remains substantial.
No one has a crystal ball, but when multiple respected sources align on higher prices driven by structural demand, it's worth paying attention.
Stay informed,
CanadianMiningReport.com
P.S. These forecasts are public commentary from Q4 2025 — markets change quickly. The real edge comes from ongoing monitoring. In The Wealthy Miner community, we track analyst updates and implications for specific stocks in real time. Join if you'd like that level of detail.
Author
Ben McGregor authors the Weekly Roundup at CanadianMiningReport.com, providing sharp analysis of the metals and mining sector. With a talent for spotting trends, Ben distills complex market shifts into clear, engaging insights on TSXV junior miners. His weekly updates cover gold, copper, uranium, and more, blending data-driven perspectives with a knack for identifying opportunities. A vital resource for investors, Ben’s work navigates the dynamic junior mining landscape with precision.