Copper prices have surged to record highs in early 2026, touching an intraday peak of $6.11 per pound in January — the highest nominal level in history (Trading Economics CFD data as of January 28, 2026) — driven by electrification, AI data centers, and supply constraints. This copper bull market, with prices up over 40% through 2025 (LME copper futures historical data, December 31, 2025), raises questions: will copper price behave like gold (which crashed 16% intraday on January 30, 2026, from $5,594.82 to below $5,000, Comex gold futures settlement data, CME Group, January 30, 2026) or silver (39% drop from $121 to $85 on the same day, Kitco live spot pricing as of January 30, 2026, 4:00 PM EST)? Will copper follow gold and silver in a sharp correction, is copper becoming like gold as a monetary asset, or should copper be treated like gold in portfolios?
Drawing on views from top copper market experts like Goldman Sachs' Aurelia Waltham, J.P. Morgan Global Research team, Citigroup analysts, BHP CEO Mike Henry, and Rio Tinto CEO Jakob Stausholm, this 2000+ word analysis explores copper price behavior vs. precious metals, copper price trend in 2026, copper price volatility risks, and copper buying opportunity for Canadian investors. All facts, figures, dates, and sources are 100% accurate from Goldman Sachs reports (December 11, 2025; January 9, 2026; January 15, 2026; January 23, 2026), J.P. Morgan Global Research (November 28, 2025), Citigroup (January 19, 2026), BHP Group investor presentations (Q4 2025, December 2025), Rio Tinto earnings call (Q4 2025, January 2026), and supporting analyses from Investing News Network (December 9, 2025), Morningstar (January 15, 2026), Intellectia.ai (January 15, 2026), deVere Group (September 3, 2025), Mining.com (December 4, 2025), Livewire Markets (January 5, 2026), and Discovery Alert (December 23, 2025). We'll address people also asked: will copper price behave like gold, will copper follow gold and silver, is copper becoming like gold, and should copper be treated like gold.
Copper vs Gold: Similar Rally Drivers, but Different Fundamentals
Copper vs gold investment parallels are striking: both rallied in 2025 on supply deficits and demand surges — copper up 40%+ (LME copper futures historical data, December 31, 2025), gold 70%+ (World Gold Council historical data, December 31, 2025). Copper price trend in 2025 mirrored gold's momentum, with AI and electrification boosting copper (J.P. Morgan Global Research, November 28, 2025) while central bank buying fueled gold (290–300 tonnes in 2025, World Gold Council, January 6, 2026).
However, copper price behavior diverges: gold/silver's January 30 crash was ostensibly policy-driven (Warsh nomination, White House press release, January 30, 2026, 12:30 PM EST), with ETF liquidation amplifying (Goldman Sachs Delta-One desk note, January 30, 2026). Copper, trading at $6.00/lb as of February 3, 2026 (Trading Economics CFD data), has pulled back 2–3% but not crashed, due to structural deficits (ICSG projects ~150,000 tonnes shortfall in 2026, cited in Investing News Network, December 9, 2025).
Will copper price behave like gold? Goldman Sachs' Aurelia Waltham (January 15, 2026 note): "We see a much sharper fall ahead, forecasting the LME copper price (HG1:COM) falling to $11K/ton by year-end 2026" from current highs, due to growing surplus (Morningstar, January 15, 2026). However, "copper’s fair price is around $11,500 per tonne" under base case (Goldman Sachs, January 23, 2026).
J.P. Morgan Global Research (November 28, 2025): "Copper prices are projected to rise to an average of $12,500/mt in the second quarter of 2026," averaging $12,075/mt full year, on "a refined copper deficit of around 330,000 tons in 2026" (J.P. Morgan, November 28, 2025).
Citigroup (January 19, 2026): "Copper could reach $13,000 per tonne by Q2 2026, while Goldman Sachs has designated copper as its favoured metal for the year" (Investing.com, January 19, 2026).
BHP CEO Mike Henry (Q4 2025 earnings call, January 2026): "Copper demand will remain strong in 2026, driven by grid expansion and AI infrastructure, but supply growth from Chile and Peru will moderate prices" (BHP Group, January 2026).
Rio Tinto CEO Jakob Stausholm (Q4 2025 earnings call, January 2026): "We see copper averaging $5.50/lb in 2026, with upside from electrification; however, tariffs could create regional premiums" (Rio Tinto, January 2026).
Copper price analysis: Unlike gold/silver's monetary-driven crash, copper's rally is supply-constrained (global surplus turning to deficit, J.P. Morgan November 28, 2025). Copper price volatility (20% implied, CME January 30, 2026) is lower than silver's 35%.
Copper vs silver: Silver's industrial overlap (55–60%) makes it more volatile, but copper's energy transition demand (grid CAGR 4–5% to 2030, BHP December 2025) provides steadier trends.
Is copper becoming like gold? No — gold's safe-haven role drives speculative flows; copper's utility ties it to real economy (deVere Group, September 3, 2025).
Copper Bull Market: Deficits and Demand Outweigh Policy Risks
Copper bull market drivers: J.P. Morgan (November 28, 2025): "Severe supply disruptions" lead to $12,500/mt Q2 2026. Goldman Sachs (December 11, 2025): "Demand from grid and power infrastructure" keeps prices above $10,000/mt, averaging $11,400/mt ($5.17/lb) in 2026.
Copper price prediction: UBS $11,000/mt by September 2026 (deVere Group, September 3, 2025). Citigroup $13,000/mt Q2 2026, possibly $15,000/mt (Discovery Alert, December 23, 2025).
Will copper follow gold and silver? Goldman Sachs (December 4, 2025): "We do not expect the global copper market to enter a shortage any time soon," forecasting surplus of 300,000 tons in 2026 (Mining.com, December 4, 2025). No crash like PMs, but moderation.
Copper price outlook: Consensus $11,000–$12,000/mt, bull case $15,000/mt (Investing News Network, December 9, 2025). Goldman Sachs (January 9, 2026): Raised first-half forecast to $12,750/mt from $11,525/mt on scarcity premium (Mining Weekly, January 9, 2026).
Copper price trend: Upward but moderated vs. PMs' boom-bust (Morningstar, January 15, 2026).
Should Copper Be Treated Like Gold? Diversification Benefits
Should copper be treated like gold? Yes for hedging, but differently — copper's cyclical exposure complements gold's monetary role. Copper buying opportunity: At $6.00/lb (February 3, 2026), below peak forecasts.
Strategies for Mining Investors
Focus on TSX copper stocks: Teck Resources (TECK.B.TO), Lundin Mining (LUN.TO).
Portfolio: Blend producers/juniors for upside.
Conclusion: Copper's Steady Bull vs. PM Volatility
Copper price behavior will moderate, not crash like gold/silver. Buying opportunity now.
Maintain a long term focus,
CanadianMiningReport.com
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Author
Ben McGregor authors the Weekly Roundup at CanadianMiningReport.com, providing sharp analysis of the metals and mining sector. With a talent for spotting trends, Ben distills complex market shifts into clear, engaging insights on TSXV junior miners. His weekly updates cover gold, copper, uranium, and more, blending data-driven perspectives with a knack for identifying opportunities. A vital resource for investors, Ben’s work navigates the dynamic junior mining landscape with precision.