September 06, 2025
Contents
One after another, Canadian provinces are becoming more challenging for mining companies to operate in.
Saskatchewan fell from #3 globally to #7.
Quebec’s position dropped from the fifth to the twenty-second.
Even the Northwest Territories slipped from #24 to #45, despite mining accounting for nearly 15% of its gross domestic product.
When resource-rich jurisdictions slide so dramatically in these rankings, it sends a clear signal to investors: Canada’s mining climate is shifting.
The Fraser Institute Annual Survey of Mining Companies is one of the most respected barometers of political risk for the mining industry.
Every year, it collects feedback from service providers, junior explorers, and major mining firms on:
1. Fiscal and tax regime.
2. Regulatory certainty and permitting.
3. Legal framework and tenure security.
4.Infrastructure and logistics.
5.Community, social, and environmental considerations.
Taken together, these estimates paint a holistic picture of how attractive a jurisdiction is for exploration and mine development.
In July, the institute released its 2024 report, covering 82 countries, states, and provinces worldwide. Over the past five years, the survey has consistently evaluated at least 62 regions.
That makes the Fraser Survey an essential tool for investors who weigh risks against rewards when deciding where to deploy capital.
Historically, Canada’s Quebec, Saskatchewan, and Yukon were in the top ten jurisdictions. US neighbors Nevada, Utah, and Arizona also ranked near the top, along with leading Australian states such as Western Australia and Queensland.
These hotspots had streamlined regulations, clear tenure laws, robust infrastructure, and community engagement frameworks that balanced local and mining interests.
In 2024, Northern Europe disrupted that equilibrium.
Finland vaulted to first place from seventeenth a year earlier.
Sweden climbed from #18 to #6.
As a result, North American jurisdictions ceded ground to Finland with its low-cost permitting reforms and Sweden with its enhanced legal tenure guarantees. If Canada does not retool its policies, more provinces risk sliding further.
Canada’s decline can be traced back to policy shifts that granted broader consultation rights to local and Indigenous groups, introduced new environmental assessment layers, and lengthened permitting timelines.
While these measures aim to improve social license and environmental stewardship, they also added complexity and uncertainty. Larger mining firms are increasingly hesitant to commit capital where approval windows can stretch beyond a decade.
Evidence of this waning confidence shows up in provincial investment data.
In British Columbia, mining capital expenditures are projected to fall from $781 million in 2023 to about $537 million this year. Ontario expects a drop from $976 million to approximately $898 million.
By contrast, Saskatchewan and Quebec project modest year-over-year increases, though still below the growth rates seen five years ago.
Trade tensions are compounding the shift.
Early this year, the United States imposed additional tariffs and threats of border delays on steel, aluminum, and other materials. These measures have forced Canadian producers to reassess supply chains and consider alternative markets. Jurisdictions with predictable cross-border frameworks now carry a premium in investors’ minds.
Developed countries are revisiting the ethos of globalized supply chains and seeking to localize critical industries. Heavy manufacturing, agriculture, and mining—activities tied to physical geography—are front and center.
Countries with stable permitting regimes and tenure security stand to attract capital away from those with convoluted regulatory environments.
Despite its resource wealth and skilled workforce, Canada faces a balancing act. On one hand, robust community and environmental safeguards enhance long-term social license. On the other, protracted permitting and evolving rules deter investors looking for clarity and speed. Policymakers must decide whether to streamline processes or risk further slippage against its global peers.
Investors should watch out for legislative changes in Ottawa and at the provincial level.
Promised reforms include shorter environmental assessments, reduced appeal windows, and clear benchmarks for Indigenous consultation. If implemented effectively, these could restore Canada’s appeal. Until then, global investors will continue to favor jurisdictions that moved faster on reform.
Northern Europe’s rise offers a blueprint. Finland reduced average permitting times by consolidating review processes under one authority. Sweden introduced multi-year mining tenures with built-in environmental performance metrics. Both governments continue to engage local stakeholders early, balancing speed with community interests. Their success underscores the value of predictable, integrated regulatory frameworks.
Sadly, Canada is losing this fight to Northern Europe. However, it’s not too late to turn things around.
It’s now up to the new government to set things straight... or face serious consequences.
Investors, however, can take advantage of this setback. They can redirect resources to Canadian companies that are expanding overseas. Many Toronto Stock Exchange-listed companies, like Rupert Resources and Aurion Gold, have flagship projects in Finland and Sweden.
These are likely to attract attention from investors looking for safe and stable political environments.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational use only and should not be used an alternative to the financial and legal advice of a qualified professional in business planning and investment. We do not represent that forecasts in this report will lead to a specific outcome or result, and are not liable in the event of any business action taken in whole or in part as a result of the contents of this report.