The AOCE and WB have moderate overall forecasts for the metals in 2025 inline with IMF forecasts for a decline in economic growth and inflation, although we see the probability of a stagflationary scenario as still reasonably high.Read More

The past year was a difficult one overall for the metals, with the main standouts to the upside being a geopolitical risk-driven gain in gold, a China-driven rise in iron ore and a surge in uranium on broadening global support for nuclear power (Figure 1). A jump in global interest rates to near two-decade highs saw recession fears persist all year, and while one still did not actually eru...Read More

This year the post-global health crisis boom was brought to an end by a surge in inflation to forty-year highs, a major rise in global interest rates in an attempt to curb the rising prices and surging geopolitical risk after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While precious metals held up reasonably well as markets turned to them as a risk hedge, by Q2/22 the higher interest rates put an end t...Read More

Chile is the world leader in copper production, at 28.5% of the total in 2020, and this looks set to continue, with the country having the largest global reserves, at 23.0% of total. It is also the global leader for molybdenum, which is often found along with copper, and is a major lithium player, holding 51.1% of global reserves. Read More

Newfoundland has become a gold exploration hotspot over the past few years, with the sector seeing some of its strongest activity ever. While the province remains a small contributor to Canadian gold production, it has a substantial mineral industry well supported by the government, focused on iron ore, copper and nickel, and the surge in exploration suggests that gold output from the...Read More

Nevada is the core of the U.S. gold output, accounting for by far the majority, at 75.4% on average for the past year. The state looks set to remain a dominant player in U.S. gold, as it accounts for 49% of total U.S. reserves, with Alaska slightly ahead with 51% of reserves, but just 8.6% of current production. The U.S. accounts for 6.1% of global gold output, making Nevada one of the largest gol...Read More

The Golden Triangle in northwestern British Columbia has historically been a major site of Canadian gold production, beginning as early as the mid 1800s. There was a wave of production in the 1990s which cooled as the gold price declined, but larger scale production resumed in 2017, and the area has seen surging exploration interest over the past year, given that the region has some of the largest...Read More

In this report we outline the Quebec gold mining industry, including its major producers, and a survey of many of the junior miners focused on the province. Quebec accounts for 34% of Canadian gold production (second to Ontario, with 44%) and remains a major focus for both producers and junior miners.Read More

Red Lake has been one of the most prolific gold mining districts in Canada and the world, with exploration having started in the 1920s, and production, which began in the 1930s, continuing to the present day. The district is known for the high grade of its gold, its infrastructure, and strong institutional support, given the long history of mining in the area.Read More

105 years ago today at the 11th month, 11th day and 11th hour the guns went quiet on the Western Front...And the white doves of peace took wing.Today we turn from the hurly-burly of the present. We turn from the world of manna, from the election, from the Bitcoin exchanges and the rest.Instead we reflect upon that morning of Nov. 11, 1918, so many years distant a neglected chapter of history...Read More

(IDEX Online) - Details of the G7 nations' long-awaited sanctions on Russian diamonds and how they will be implemented could be decided as soon as Monday (13 November) according to Josep Borrell, the EU's chief diplomat.He told the Financial Times: "In order for [EU] member states to be unanimous for the ban on diamond trade, some were requesting that the G7 were giving, let's say,...Read More

Back in 2017 when I composed this graphic of overlapping crises, the word polycrisis was not yet in common use. Polycrisis has various definitions, for example: “the simultaneous occurrence of several catastrophic events.” But this doesn’t explain the truly dangerous dynamic in polycrisis, which is the nonlinear, mutually reinforcing potential of disparate crises to generate...Read More

(IDEX Online) - Lucapa says it has recovered a 235-carat diamond at Lulo, Angola, just a week after announcing a 208-carat stone from the same mine.Both diamonds are Type IIa and are the 39th and 40th +100-ct recoveries since the alluvial mine began commercial operation in January 2015.Several weeks ago Lucapa recovered another +100-ct gem from Lulo, this time weighing 123 carats."Lulo continues t...Read More

My friend and erstwhile colleague Greg Guenthner wrote a peach of a piece for Tuesday's Morning Reckoning.In it, The Gunner wrote:Despite the three months of choppy descent we experienced after the averages topped out in late July, last month's drop shouldn't have set off any alarm bells.Not only are pullbacks and downside moves perfectly normal events, there are also seasonal trends the market ha...Read More

The Cato Institute is a libertarian "free market" outfit.It houses itself in Washington, D.C. somewhat ironically.And according to Cato... the novel mRNA vaccines represent the peak and pinnacle of market capitalism:It was the flow of people, ideas, capital, goods and services that made it possible to discover and produce a vaccine in record time...Global capital markets... played a role by prov...Read More

Imagine a fellow...This is a wastrel sunk impossibly in debt credit card debt.Spiraling interest payments begin to swamp him.He must take on an additional credit card in order to satisfy interest payments on the original.Yet he must soon take on another credit card... to service the interest on the card he previously took on... which he took on to service the interest on the first.That is, he mu...Read More

(IDEX Online) - Belgian traceability firm iTraceiT is to incorporate super-accurate digital reports, produced by the Cutwise Group, into its diamond passports.   It says that adding Cutwise's DiLog ID to its own blockchain technology provides an extra layer of security.   The DiLog ID creates a "a photoreal rendered image of the polished Diamond" to produce unprecedentedly accu...Read More

The same old story that's hoodwinked investors since the dawn of time... You've heard of a sucker rally...But what about a sucker breakdown?We might have just witnessed one asinvestors jettisoned their stocks last week just before a huge snapback move that began with frantic short-covering rallies and could end with an epic melt-up into the holidays.Here's how it all started...It was looking ble...Read More

The dollar has been extremely strong over the past two years. This persistent dollar strength has been a mystery to many. After all, the dollar's problems are well known.The ratio of government debt to GDP for the United States is at a record high approaching 130% (a prudent level is considered 30%, and anything over 90% is a headwind to any economic growth at all).The U.S. is running multitrillio...Read More

(IDEX Online) - Gemstone miner Fura Gems has agreed a pioneering deal to provide Bangkok-based China Stone with a guaranteed supply of premium rough rubies from its Montepuez mine, in Mozambique. It will allocate 0.25-ct to 0.75-ct gems for the next three years, allowing China Stone to improve production planning for watch and jewelry manufacturers.Dev Shetty, Fura's CEO, says the deal i...Read More

(IDEX Online) - The Botswana government appears poised to go ahead with plans to buy a 24 per cent stake in HB Antwerp and to let it sell 10 per cent (at least 600,000 carats annually) of its rough production.The deal was thrown into doubt in September after Vancouver-based Lucara pulled out of its own 10-year agreement with HB after just a year, alleging "a material breach of financial commitment...Read More

(IDEX Online) - Debswana's rough diamond sales fell by more than 21 per cent in the first nine months of this year, according to the Bank of Botswana. Weak global demand saw revenue fall from $3.578bn for the same period in 2022 to $2.811bn. Debswana, a joint venture between De Beers and the Botswana government, produced 24.1m carats last year and is the biggest contributor to the De Beers Gr...Read More

Another bank bites the dust!Citizens Bank was a small bank in Iowa with about $66 million in assets. Its loan portfolio consisted largely of commercial and industrial loans.Well, this past Friday the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) announced that Citizens Bank had failed due to significant hidden loan losses totaling about $15 million.Because Citizens Bank was not a member of FDIC, th...Read More

(IDEX Online) - US watch and jewelry sales declined again for an eighth consecutive month during September.But the drop was among the lowest we have seen of late, according to the latest Department of Commerce figures.For the third month in a row, sales have shown slight signs of improvement, up from -4.0 per cent to -2.3 per cent and now -2.0 per cent.Consumer spending is gradually picking up in...Read More

(IDEX Online) - De Beers has averted the threat of strike action by agreeing a five-year pay deal with the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM).A walkout by a third of the workforce - around 1,500 NUM members - would have hit production at the Venetia mine, which accounts for 40 per cent of De Beers' output in South Africa. The NUM was demanding a 9 per cent wage increase, against De Beer...Read More

(IDEX Online) - Lucapa has recovered the third largest diamond ever from Lulo, Angola, since the mine opened  in January 2015.The 208 carat Type IIa gem is the second +100-ct diamond in under a month, and the 39th in the lifetime of the deposit.The largest recovery at the Lulo alluvial mine - which commands the highest price per carat for alluvial diamonds in the world - was a 404 carat Type...Read More

(IDEX Online) - Stargems has become the first tender house to sign up for traceability technology by Sarine that quickly registers large parcels of diamonds.The Dubai-based business is using the AutoScan Plus software, which inegrates with Sarine's Diamond Journey to track every move a diamond makes.Sarine describes it as a game-changing way of registering rough diamonds at source with minima...Read More

(IDEX Online) - There were signs of a slowdown in the 18-month long decline of polished diamonds prices during October.The Index fell by 1.60 per cent, compared to just over 3 per cent in September, which was the single biggest monthly drop of the current crisis.Price drops through October were gradual, and showed none of the volatility of the previous month.The supply of rough is c...Read More

If we’re limited to our income, there’s only so much we can spend on consumption and servicing existing debts, and invest/save to build capital/future income.If we have access to the miraculous elixir of credit, we can expand our spending/investing by borrowing more money. This boosts our consumption and perhaps our investing, but it also increases our debt service the interest that...Read More