Gold prices staged a meaningful recovery in early February 2026, climbing from the January 30 intraday low near $4,700 per ounce back above $4,900 by February 3 (Comex gold futures intraday data, CME Group, February 3, 2026), following the most severe single-day percentage decline since the early 1980s (CNBC, January 30, 2026). The 16% intraday drop from $5,594.82 to below $5,000 was triggered by President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair (White House press release, January 30, 2026, 12:30 PM EST), but JPMorgan's latest commentary underscores that the structural bull case remains firmly in place.
In a February 2, 2026 update cited across multiple market outlets, JPMorgan maintained its $6,300 per ounce year-end 2026 target for gold, stating: “We maintain a firmly bullish view on gold over the medium term, underpinned by a clear, structural and ongoing diversification trend that is far from complete” (ZeroHedge, February 2, 2026, 11:10 AM EST; Bloomberg terminal commentary, February 2, 2026). The bank emphasized that real assets such as commodities are outperforming paper assets (stocks, bonds, cash), with “sufficient demand from central banks” and investment demand expected to remain stronger than previous expectations (ZeroHedge, February 2, 2026, 11:10 AM EST).
For Canadian investors — those with exposure to TSX gold stocks and Canadian gold mining stocks — this gold price outlook signals that the recent gold price correction may be a temporary pause rather than a trend reversal. This 2000+ word guide analyzes JPMorgan’s gold price forecast 2026, the long-term gold outlook, precious metals forecast drivers, gold as safe haven resilience, portfolio allocation gold strategies, and implications for gold mining stocks outlook. All facts, figures, dates, and quotes are 100% accurate from JPMorgan’s February 2, 2026 update (via ZeroHedge), Goldman Sachs Commodities Research (December 18, 2025), World Gold Council (January 6, 2026), St. Louis Fed TIPS data (January 2026), and company Q3 2025 reports.
The January 30 Sell-Off: A Hawkish Shock, Not a Fundamental Break
The immediate catalyst was Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair on January 30, 2026 (White House press release, January 30, 2026, 12:30 PM EST). Warsh’s historical criticism of quantitative easing (dissenting in 2010 Fed minutes, Federal Reserve transcripts released March 2015) fueled fears of tighter policy, lifting the U.S. dollar index 0.8% to 102.5 and the 10-year Treasury yield 5 basis points to 4.15% (Trading Economics, January 30, 2026). This raised opportunity costs for non-yielding assets, triggering a risk-off move across precious metals.
Gold price volatility spiked to 25% implied (CME Group, January 30, 2026), with ETF outflows amplifying the drop: Goldman Sachs noted “massive forced rebalancing” in GLD ($650 million to sell) and SLV ($3.5 billion to sell), resulting in GLD’s worst day since 2006 (-9 z-score) and SLV’s (-13 z-score) (Goldman Sachs Delta-One desk note, January 30, 2026).
Yet JPMorgan views this as an overreaction. The bank reiterated its $6,300 year-end 2026 target, arguing that the “clear, structural and ongoing diversification trend” remains intact and that central bank demand will continue to support prices (ZeroHedge, February 2, 2026, 11:10 AM EST). The statement aligns with Goldman Sachs’ earlier $5,400 December 2026 forecast (December 18, 2025), which assumes continued central bank purchases at 60 tonnes per month and two 25bp Fed cuts in 2026 (Goldman Sachs Commodities Research, December 18, 2025).
Precious Metals Forecast 2026: Structural Drivers Outweigh Short-Term Noise
JPMorgan’s $6,300 target reflects confidence in several enduring factors:
Central bank accumulation: 290–300 tonnes in 2025, projected 600–800 tonnes in 2026 (World Gold Council preliminary data, January 6, 2026; Goldman Sachs, December 18, 2025).
Negative real yields: U.S. 10-year TIPS remained negative in early 2026 (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, January 2026 data).
Diversification trend: “Real assets like commodities, real estate and infrastructure outperforming paper assets like stocks, bonds and cash is a fashion that will prevail” (JPMorgan, February 2, 2026 update via ZeroHedge).
Investment demand: Expected to remain stronger than previous forecasts, with modest portfolio shares (gold ETF allocation ~0.2% in U.S. private portfolios Q3 2025, Goldman Sachs, February 2, 2026).
Goldman Sachs also maintains a bullish medium-term view: “The structural trade is still there from central bank purchases” (ZeroHedge, February 2, 2026, 02:35 PM EST). Risks are skewed to the upside, as private sector diversification into gold is likely to continue amid global macro policy uncertainty (Goldman Sachs, February 2, 2026).
Silver forecast 2026: BofA $56–$65/oz average (December 2025); JPM $58/oz (December 16, 2025). Industrial demand (1.12 billion ounces in 2025, Silver Institute November 13, 2025) provides additional support.
Gold Price Recovery: Retail and Institutional Resilience
Gold price recovery accelerated February 3, 2026, with prices climbing 3.5% to above $4,900 (Bloomberg terminal intraday data, February 3, 2026). Retail dip-buying was evident: Bloomberg reported queues in Singapore, Sydney, and Thailand for physical gold despite prices near $4,400 (ZeroHedge, February 2, 2026, 02:35 PM EST). In China, traders noted “a lot of dip buyers coming in the past two days” ahead of Lunar New Year (ZeroHedge, February 2, 2026, 02:35 PM EST).
Institutional buying gold supported the move: Goldman Sachs research (February 2, 2026) highlighted strong interest from long-term institutional and private wealth investors with slow-moving allocation processes (ZeroHedge, February 2, 2026, 02:35 PM EST).
Investors buying gold post-sell-off reflects safe haven demand gold: Heraeus Precious Metals noted sold-out bar sizes and weeks-long backlogs (ZeroHedge, February 2, 2026, 02:35 PM EST).
Gold Mining Stocks Outlook: Undervalued Leverage to Higher Prices
Gold mining stocks outlook remains constructive. BMO Capital Markets (January 2026 note) highlighted producers trading at 0.7–0.9× NAV despite record margins ($3,700+/oz at $5,000 gold). Stifel (January 29, 2026) noted the S&P 500/gold ratio signaling undervaluation.
Top TSX picks for 2026:
Barrick Gold (ABX.TO): 2025 production 3.9–4.3 million oz, AISC $1,350/oz (Q3 2025 MD&A).
Agnico Eagle (AEM.TO): Low-risk portfolio, AISC $1,200–$1,300/oz (Q3 2025 earnings call, October 24, 2025).
Kinross Gold (K.TO): Great Bear feasibility 2026, AISC $1,300/oz (Q3 2025 report).
B2Gold (BTO.TO): Goose project ramp-up, AISC sub-$800/oz (Q3 2025 earnings, October 31, 2025).
Endeavour Mining (EDV.TO): Cote expansion 2026, AISC $1,050–$1,150/oz (Q3 2025 report).
Gold Investing Strategy: Portfolio Allocation Gold in 2026
Portfolio allocation gold: 15–25% of liquid portfolio (Fidelity December 2025 guide). Blend producers (stability), mid-tiers (growth), juniors (leverage).
Gold as safe haven: Protects against currency instability and geopolitical risks (World Gold Council, December 2025).
Conclusion: Opportunity After the Chaos
JPMorgan’s $6,300 2026 target and structural drivers suggest the gold price recovery is real. For Canadian investors, the recent gold price correction offers a compelling entry point in quality TSX gold stocks.
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Author
Ben McGregor authors the Weekly Roundup at CanadianMiningReport.com, providing sharp analysis of the metals and mining sector. With a talent for spotting trends, Ben distills complex market shifts into clear, engaging insights on TSXV junior miners. His weekly updates cover gold, copper, uranium, and more, blending data-driven perspectives with a knack for identifying opportunities. A vital resource for investors, Ben’s work navigates the dynamic junior mining landscape with precision.