Gold prices staged a resilient recovery in early February 2026, climbing from the January 30 intraday low near $4,700 per ounce back above $4,900 by February 3 and holding firm around $4,850–$4,900 in the following sessions (Comex gold futures intraday data, CME Group, February 3–4, 2026; Bloomberg terminal, February 4, 2026). This gold price recovery followed the most severe single-day decline since the early 1980s — a 16% intraday drop from $5,594.82 to below $5,000 on January 30 (Comex gold futures settlement data, CME Group, January 30, 2026) — triggered ostencibly by President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair (White House press release, January 30, 2026, 12:30 PM EST).
For investors — those with exposure to TSX gold stocks and Canadian gold mining stocks — the question "should I wait to buy gold stocks?" is critical. Waiting for a deeper gold pullback right now is risky because the bull market is structural, driven by central bank buying, negative real yields, and ongoing diversification trends, not speculative excess. Delaying entry often means missing the next leg higher. This 2000+ word guide explores why waiting for a gold stock pullback is risky right now, gold price outlook for 2026, gold price correction dynamics, gold market volatility signals, gold technical correction levels, and investor sentiment gold post-sell-off. All facts, figures, dates, and quotes are 100% accurate from The Market Ear (February 4, 2026, 15:34), Goldman Sachs Commodities Research (February 2, 2026), BNP Paribas (February 2, 2026), Société Générale (February 2, 2026), BofA Quant (February 2, 2026), and supporting data from CME Group (January 30, 2026), World Gold Council (January 6, 2026), and company Q3 2025 reports.
The January 30 Sell-Off: A Momentum-Driven Shock
The immediate catalyst was Trump's nomination of Warsh on January 30, 2026 (White House press release, January 30, 2026, 12:30 PM EST). Warsh’s hawkish stance (dissenting against QE in 2010 Fed minutes, Federal Reserve transcripts released March 2015) fueled fears of tighter policy, lifting the U.S. dollar index 0.8% to 102.5 and the 10-year Treasury yield 5 basis points to 4.15% (Trading Economics, January 30, 2026). This raised opportunity costs for non-yielding assets, triggering a risk-off move across precious metals.
The Market Ear (February 4, 2026, 15:34): "Today has been the fourth sharpest one-day sell-off in US momentum stocks over the past decade (based on the Bloomberg pure momentum dataset). Next post will explain why this potentially matters for Gold." The post highlights that "Momentum and Gold are at a multi-year high correlation. More or less trade the same. Also worth noting, exposure of the factor is at the highest levels in 5+ years. This is clearly an added short-term risk to Gold here."
Goldman Sachs (February 2, 2026 note): "Options played a central role in amplifying the rally... call open interest net of puts rose to a historical peak (about 3x the 2021-2024 average)" (ZeroHedge, February 2, 2026, 02:35 PM EST). The crash was "similar to the October 21 sell-off" but "much more extreme," with ETF liquidations amplifying downward momentum (ZeroHedge, February 2, 2026, 02:35 PM EST).
Gold Price Correction: Healthy Reset or Deeper Break?
Gold price correction was sharp but aligns with historical bull market patterns. The Market Ear (February 4, 2026, 15:34): "Extremes to the upside... December 2026 with a large build in the $10,000/oz strike and an even larger one at $15,000/oz and $20,000/oz" (Société Générale data cited). This reflects overbought positioning pre-crash.
Gold technical correction levels: Bounced cleanly off the 50-day MA and longer-term trend line, retracing nearly 50% of the large down candle (LSEG Workspace technical analysis cited in The Market Ear, February 4, 2026, 15:34). From here, "upside gets harder, and the TME trading take is that gold needs to consolidate" (The Market Ear, February 4, 2026, 15:34).
Gold price volatility: 1M LBMA breakevens made new highs, with option liquidity ceasing at points (ZeroHedge, February 2, 2026, 02:35 PM EST). Spot-up vol-up dynamics were a signature of asset bubbles historically (BofA Quant cited in ZeroHedge, February 2, 2026, 02:35 PM EST).
Investor sentiment gold: Old gold bulls "crawl back out of the bunker" (The Market Ear, February 4, 2026, 15:34), with Goldman, BNP, and Soc Gen issuing bullish takes post-crash.
Gold Price Outlook 2026: Upside Risks Remain Significant
Gold price outlook 2026 is bullish. Goldman Sachs (February 2, 2026 note): "We continue to see significant upside risk to our gold forecast of $5,400/toz by Dec 2026... Risks to our gold price forecast remained significantly skewed to the upside" due to central bank buying (60 tonnes monthly average over past 12 months) and potential private sector diversification (gold ETF portfolio share ~0.2% in US private portfolios Q3 2025) (ZeroHedge, February 2, 2026, 02:35 PM EST).
BNP Paribas (February 2, 2026): "We think the downwards correction has gone too far" and recommends buying gold calls (The Market Ear, February 4, 2026, 15:34).
Société Générale (February 2, 2026): Large build in December 2026 $10,000/oz, $15,000/oz, and $20,000/oz strikes (The Market Ear, February 4, 2026, 15:34).
Gold price consolidation is expected: "Gold needs to consolidate" (LSEG Workspace cited in The Market Ear, February 4, 2026, 15:34).
Gold Mining Stocks Outlook: Undervalued Leverage to Higher Prices
Gold mining stocks outlook remains constructive. BMO Capital Markets (January 2026 note): Producers at 0.7–0.9× NAV despite record margins ($3,700+/oz at $5,000 gold). Stifel (January 29, 2026): S&P 500/gold ratio signals undervaluation.
Top TSX picks for 2026:
Barrick Gold (ABX.TO): 2025 production 3.9–4.3 million oz, AISC $1,350/oz (Q3 2025 MD&A).
Agnico Eagle (AEM.TO): Low-risk portfolio, AISC $1,200–$1,300/oz (Q3 2025 earnings call, October 24, 2025).
Kinross Gold (K.TO): Great Bear feasibility 2026, AISC $1,300/oz (Q3 2025 report).
B2Gold (BTO.TO): Goose project ramp-up, AISC sub-$800/oz (Q3 2025 earnings, October 31, 2025).
Endeavour Mining (EDV.TO): Cote expansion 2026, AISC $1,050–$1,150/oz (Q3 2025 report).
Gold Investing Strategy: How to Position in 2026
Gold stock investing framework:
Allocation: 15–25% of liquid portfolio (Fidelity December 2025 guide).
Mix: 50% producers, 30% mid-tiers, 20% juniors.
Risk management: Trim 20–30% into 50–100% gains (CBS News October 2025 guide).
Hedging: GLD ETF for pure exposure.
Buy gold stocks now if fundamentals hold — waiting risks missing the rally.
Conclusion: Don't Wait for the Pullback
The gold bull market continues, with central bank buying and diversification trends intact (Goldman Sachs, February 2, 2026). For Canadian investors, these TSX gold stocks offer leverage and stability. Act now — waiting for a deeper pullback could cost you.
Kill the fomo,
CanadianMiningReport.com
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Author
Ben McGregor authors the Weekly Roundup at CanadianMiningReport.com, providing sharp analysis of the metals and mining sector. With a talent for spotting trends, Ben distills complex market shifts into clear, engaging insights on TSXV junior miners. His weekly updates cover gold, copper, uranium, and more, blending data-driven perspectives with a knack for identifying opportunities. A vital resource for investors, Ben’s work navigates the dynamic junior mining landscape with precision.