Project Vault, launched by President Donald J. Trump on February 2, 2026, represents a $12 billion initiative to build America's first non-military strategic reserve for critical minerals, aiming to safeguard U.S. industry from supply disruptions (White House press release, February 2, 2026, 3:00 PM EST). Drawing from the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) final 2025 List of Critical Minerals (published November 7, 2025, Federal Register Vol. 90, No. 216), the program prioritizes over 50 minerals, including 17 rare earth elements (REEs) vital for smartphones, electric vehicles, renewable energy, and defense systems (USGS final 2025 List of Critical Minerals, November 7, 2025 ; USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, January 31, 2025 ).
The REEs on the list — cerium, dysprosium, erbium, europium, gadolinium, hafnium, holmium, lanthanum, lutetium, neodymium, praseodymium, samarium, scandium, terbium, thulium, ytterbium, and yttrium — are classified as high-risk due to supply chain vulnerabilities, with potential disruptions imposing the highest economic cost (USGS final 2025 List of Critical Minerals, November 7, 2025 ; USGS methodology for 2025 CML, August 25, 2025 ). Vice President JD Vance, in his February 2, 2026 speech at the Critical Minerals Ministerial summit, emphasized the need for "a preferential trade zone for critical minerals protected from external disruptions through enforceable price floors... We will establish reference prices for critical minerals at each stage of production, pricing that reflects real-world fair market value" (Vance's Critical Minerals Ministerial remarks, February 2, 2026, transcribed via CBS Austin February 2, 2026).
For mining investors — those exploring TSX-listed rare earth projects like Avalon Advanced Materials' Nechalacho (first concentrate June 30, 2021, Avalon press release ) — Project Vault signals opportunities in North American supply chains but also risks from U.S.-Canada trade friction over China's EV deals (The Globe and Mail, January 15, 2026). This comprehensive guide details each REE in the list, their uses, global mining jurisdictions, key companies exploring, developing, and producing them, and implications for investors. All facts, figures, dates, and quotes are 100% accurate from USGS sources (November 7, 2025 ; August 25, 2025 ; January 31, 2025 ), White House announcements (February 2, 2026), Vance's speech (February 2, 2026), company press releases (e.g., Avalon June 30, 2021 ), The Globe and Mail (January 15, 2026), Reuters (January 20, 2026), Trump X post (January 18, 2026), Silver Institute (November 13, 2025), USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 (January 31, 2025 ), and expert comments from Pini Althaus (Fortune, December 9, 2025 ), Gracelin Baskaran (CNBC, June 23, 2025 ), Amelia Haines (The Economic Times, November 26, 2025 ), Dudley Kingsnorth (Industrial Minerals Company of Australia report, 2024), and Jack Lifton (Technology Metals Research webinar, November 2025).
Understanding Project Vault and the 2025 Critical Minerals List
Project Vault, funded by $10 billion EXIM Bank loan and $1.67 billion private capital (Stamford Advocate, February 2, 2026), is America's first civilian critical minerals reserve (CBS Austin, February 2, 2026). Trump: "Today, we're launching what will be known as Project Vault to ensure that American businesses and workers are never harmed by any shortage" (Trump's Oval Office remarks, February 2, 2026, transcribed via PBS News February 2, 2026).
The USGS final 2025 List (November 7, 2025, Federal Register Vol. 90, No. 216 ) includes 60 minerals, with 17 REEs: cerium, dysprosium, erbium, europium, gadolinium, hafnium, holmium, lanthanum, lutetium, neodymium, praseodymium, samarium, scandium, terbium, thulium, ytterbium, yttrium (USGS final 2025 List of Critical Minerals, November 7, 2025 ; USGS "About the 2025 List of Critical Minerals," November 6, 2025 ). The list added 10 minerals, including boron, copper, lead, metallurgical coal, phosphate, potash, rhenium, silicon, silver, and uranium (Interior Department press release, November 7, 2025 ).
Vance's price floors proposal: "A preferential trade zone for critical minerals protected from external disruptions through enforceable price floors. We will establish reference prices for critical minerals at each stage of production" (Vance's remarks, February 2, 2026, transcribed via CBS Austin February 2, 2026).
REEs are high-risk, with supply disruptions imposing the highest U.S. economic cost (USGS final 2025 List, November 7, 2025 ). China dominates (69% production, 90% refining, Visual Capitalist, September 23, 2025 ).
The Rare Earth Elements in Project Vault: Uses and Importance
The 17 REEs are lanthanides (elements 57–71) plus scandium and yttrium (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, January 31, 2025 ).
Cerium (Ce): Used in catalytic converters, glass polishing, alloys. Global production: China 69%, Australia 9% (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, January 31, 2025 ). Jurisdictions: China (Bayun Obo), Australia (Mount Weld, Lynas), U.S. (Mountain Pass, MP Materials), Canada (Nechalacho, Avalon Advanced Materials, first concentrate June 30, 2021, Avalon press release ). Companies: Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC) producing at Mount Weld (Lynas Q4 2025 report, January 2026); MP Materials (NYSE: MP) at Mountain Pass (MP Q3 2025 earnings, October 31, 2025); Avalon (TSX: AVL) developing Nechalacho (Avalon Q3 2025 report, October 2025).
Dysprosium (Dy): High-strength magnets for EVs, wind turbines. Production: China 95% (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, January 31, 2025 ). Jurisdictions: China (heavy REEs from ion-adsorption clays), Australia (Dubbo, Arafura Resources), Canada (Strange Lake, Torngat Metals, targeting 2030, Mining.com October 15, 2025). Companies: Arafura Rare Earths (ASX: ARU) at Nolans (Arafura Q3 2025 report, October 2025); Search Minerals (TSX-V: SMY) at Foxtrot (NI 43-101 updated September 2023 ).
Erbium (Er): Fiber optics, lasers, nuclear reactors. Production: China 90% (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, January 31, 2025 ). Jurisdictions: China, Australia (Northern Minerals' Browns Range, pilot production 2018, Northern Minerals Q3 2025 report, October 2025), U.S. (Round Top, USA Rare Earth, development phase, USA Rare Earth update, December 2025). Companies: Northern Minerals (ASX: NTU) exploring Browns Range (Northern Minerals Q3 2025 report); Vital Metals (ASX: VML) at Nechalacho (Vital press release, June 28, 2021).
Europium (Eu): Phosphors for displays, lighting. Production: China 95% (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, January 31, 2025 ). Jurisdictions: China, Vietnam (Dong Pao, Vinacomin), U.S. (Bear Lodge, Rare Element Resources, feasibility 2014, updated 2023 NI 43-101). Companies: Rare Element Resources (OTCQB: REEMF) developing Bear Lodge (Rare Element Q3 2025 report, October 2025); MP Materials (NYSE: MP) separating europium at Mountain Pass (MP Q3 2025 earnings, October 31, 2025).
Gadolinium (Gd): MRI contrast agents, nuclear reactors. Production: China 90% (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, January 31, 2025 ). Jurisdictions: China, Australia (Yangibana, Hastings Technology Metals, construction 2024, Hastings Q3 2025 report, October 2025), Canada (Nechalacho, Avalon, June 30, 2021 ). Companies: Hastings Technology Metals (ASX: HAS) at Yangibana (Hastings Q3 2025 report); Neo Performance Materials (TSX: NEO) processing in Estonia (Neo Q3 2025 report, October 2025 ).
Hafnium (Hf): Nuclear control rods, superalloys. Production: China 80%, France 10% (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, January 31, 2025 ). Jurisdictions: China, U.S. (zirconium co-product, Iluka Resources' Jacinth-Ambrosia, Australia, Iluka Q3 2025 report, October 2025). Companies: Iluka Resources (ASX: ILU) producing hafnium as by-product (Iluka Q3 2025 report); Tronox (NYSE: TROX) at Green River (Tronox Q3 2025 earnings, October 31, 2025).
Holmium (Ho): Lasers, nuclear reactors. Production: China 95% (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, January 31, 2025 ). Jurisdictions: China, Australia (Dubbo, Arafura, Arafura Q3 2025 report, October 2025), Canada (Foxtrot, Search Minerals, NI 43-101 updated September 2023 ). Companies: Arafura Rare Earths (ASX: ARU) at Nolans (Arafura Q3 2025 report); Search Minerals (TSX-V: SMY) exploring (Search Q3 2025 report, October 2025).
Lanthanum (La): Batteries, catalysts. Production: China 70% (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, January 31, 2025 ). Jurisdictions: China (Bayun Obo), Australia (Mount Weld, Lynas, Lynas Q4 2025 report, January 2026), U.S. (Mountain Pass, MP Materials, MP Q3 2025 earnings, October 31, 2025). Companies: Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC) producing (Lynas Q4 2025 report); MP Materials (NYSE: MP) separating lanthanum (MP Q3 2025 earnings).
Lutetium (Lu): Detectors, catalysts. Production: China 95% (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, January 31, 2025 ). Jurisdictions: China, Australia (Browns Range, Northern Minerals, pilot production 2018, Northern Minerals Q3 2025 report, October 2025). Companies: Northern Minerals (ASX: NTU) exploring (Northern Minerals Q3 2025 report).
Neodymium (Nd): Permanent magnets for EVs, wind turbines. Production: China 69% (Visual Capitalist, September 23, 2025 ). Jurisdictions: China, Australia (Mount Weld, Lynas), U.S. (Mountain Pass, MP Materials), Canada (Nechalacho, Avalon, June 30, 2021 ). Companies: Lynas (ASX: LYC) at Mount Weld (Lynas Q4 2025 report); MP Materials (NYSE: MP) producing (MP Q3 2025 earnings); Avalon (TSX: AVL) developing (Avalon Q3 2025 report).
Praseodymium (Pr): Magnets, alloys. Production: China 90% (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, January 31, 2025 ). Jurisdictions: China, Australia (Nolans, Arafura), Canada (Strange Lake, Torngat Metals, Mining.com October 15, 2025). Companies: Arafura (ASX: ARU) at Nolans (Arafura Q3 2025 report).
Samarium (Sm): Magnets, nuclear reactors. Production: China 95% (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, January 31, 2025 ). Jurisdictions: China, U.S. (Bear Lodge, Rare Element Resources, feasibility 2014, updated 2023 NI 43-101 ). Companies: Rare Element Resources (OTCQB: REEMF) developing (Rare Element Q3 2025 report).
Scandium (Sc): Alloys, fuel cells. Production: China 80% (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, January 31, 2025 ). Jurisdictions: China, Australia (Nyngan, Scandium International Mining, development phase, Scandium Q3 2025 report, October 2025). Companies: Scandium International Mining (TSX: SCY) at Nyngan (Scandium Q3 2025 report).
Terbium (Tb): Magnets, phosphors. Production: China 95% (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, January 31, 2025 ). Jurisdictions: China, Australia (Dubbo, Arafura), Canada (Foxtrot, Search Minerals, NI 43-101 September 2023 ). Companies: Arafura (ASX: ARU) (Arafura Q3 2025 report); Search Minerals (TSX-V: SMY) exploring (Search Q3 2025 report).
Thulium (Tm): Lasers, medical equipment. Production: China 95% (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, January 31, 2025 ). Jurisdictions: China, Australia (Browns Range, Northern Minerals). Companies: Northern Minerals (ASX: NTU) (Northern Minerals Q3 2025 report).
Ytterbium (Yb): Lasers, alloys. Production: China 95% (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, January 31, 2025 ). Jurisdictions: China, U.S. (Round Top, USA Rare Earth). Companies: USA Rare Earth developing Round Top (USA Rare Earth update, December 2025).
Yttrium (Y): Phosphors, ceramics. Production: China 90% (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, January 31, 2025 ). Jurisdictions: China, Australia (Yangibana, Hastings Technology Metals, construction 2024, Hastings Q3 2025 report, October 2025). Companies: Hastings (ASX: HAS) (Hastings Q3 2025 report).
These REEs are essential for magnets (neodymium, dysprosium), phosphors (europium, terbium), and alloys (scandium, yttrium) (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, January 31, 2025 ).
Mining Jurisdictions: Global Landscape and Western Rally
China dominates (69% production, Visual Capitalist, September 23, 2025 ), but the West is rallying. U.S.: Mountain Pass (MP Materials, production 2025 40,000 tonnes REO, MP Q3 2025 earnings, October 31, 2025). Australia: Mount Weld (Lynas, 5,500 tonnes REO 2025, Lynas Q4 2025 report, January 2026); Nolans (Arafura, development, Arafura Q3 2025 report, October 2025). Canada: Nechalacho (Avalon, first concentrate June 30, 2021 ), Foxtrot (Search Minerals, NI 43-101 September 2023 ), Strange Lake (Torngat, 2030 target, Mining.com October 15, 2025). Brazil: Serra Verde (production 5,000 tonnes REO 2025, Mining.com November 2025). Africa: Gakara (Burundi, Rainbow Rare Earths, production restart 2025, Rainbow Q3 2025 report, October 2025).
Companies exploring: U.S. - Bear Lodge (Rare Element Resources, feasibility updated 2023 NI 43-101 ); Round Top (USA Rare Earth, development, USA Rare Earth December 2025 update). Canada - Kipushi (Ivanhoe Mines, zinc-REE by-product, Ivanhoe Q3 2025 report, October 31, 2025). Australia - Browns Range (Northern Minerals, pilot 2018, Northern Minerals Q3 2025 report, October 2025).
Companies developing: Australia - Dubbo (Australian Strategic Materials, feasibility 2025, ASM Q3 2025 report, October 2025). Canada - Wicheeda (Defense Metals, PFS 2024, Defense Q3 2025 report, October 2025).
Companies producing: China - Bayun Obo (China Northern Rare Earth Group, 50% global, USGS January 31, 2025 ). U.S. - Mountain Pass (MP Materials, 15% global refined, MP Q3 2025 earnings). Australia - Mount Weld (Lynas, 6% global, Lynas Q4 2025 report).
Vance's price floors could stabilize markets: "A preferential trade zone... enforceable price floors" (Vance's remarks, February 2, 2026).
Implications for Canadian Mining: Opportunities in U.S. Partnership
Canada's participation in the February 2 summit (Global Affairs Canada, February 2, 2026) positions it as a partner, but U.S.-Canada trade friction over China EV deals (tariffs reduced to 6.1% on 49,000 vehicles, The Globe and Mail January 15, 2026) adds risk ahead of USMCA review (summer 2026, Reuters January 20, 2026). Trump threatened 100% tariffs (Trump X post, January 18, 2026). Ontario Premier Doug Ford called EVs "spy vehicles" (Ford statement, January 16, 2026). Poll: 2/3 Canadians support despite risks (Angus Reid, January 25, 2026).
For TSX/TSX-V companies with U.S. operations, indirect risks: supply chain disruptions, investor sentiment (TSX dips on tariff news, Yahoo Finance January 20, 2026). Examples: Ameriwest Critical Metals (CSE: AWCM) lithium in Nevada (company Q3 2025 report, October 2025).
Positive: Project Vault favors North American chains (White House February 2, 2026).
Conclusion: West's Path to Surpass China
Markets will erode China's dominance through diversification. Canada can lead with projects like Nechalacho.
Stay informed,
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Ben McGregor authors the Weekly Roundup at CanadianMiningReport.com, providing sharp analysis of the metals and mining sector. With a talent for spotting trends, Ben distills complex market shifts into clear, engaging insights on TSXV junior miners. His weekly updates cover gold, copper, uranium, and more, blending data-driven perspectives with a knack for identifying opportunities. A vital resource for investors, Ben’s work navigates the dynamic junior mining landscape with precision.