The launch of "Project Vault" by President Donald J. Trump on February 2, 2026, marks a pivotal moment for North American supply chains in critical minerals, aiming to secure U.S. industry against disruptions with a $12 billion strategic reserve (White House press release, February 2, 2026, 3:00 PM EST). In his Oval Office remarks, Trump stated: "Today, we're launching what will be known as Project Vault to ensure that American businesses and workers are never harmed by any shortage. We don't want to have to go through what we went through a year ago... This initiative will combine $10 billion dollars in export-import bank financing with $2 billion in private sector financing, and we even expect the American taxpayer to make a profit from the interest on the loan used to start the Project Vault" (Trump's Oval Office remarks, February 2, 2026, transcribed via PBS News, February 2, 2026).
Vice President JD Vance, in his speech at the Critical Minerals Ministerial summit the same day, emphasized: "We convened this ministerial in an effort to accelerate that shared work. So this morning, the Trump administration is proposing a concrete mechanism to return the global critical minerals market to a healthier, more competitive state. A preferential trade zone for critical minerals protected from external disruptions through enforceable price floors. We will establish reference prices for critical minerals at... each stage of production, pricing that reflects real-world fair market value. And for members of this preferential zone, these reference prices will operate as a floor, maintained through adjustable tariffs to uphold pricing integrity. We want to eliminate that problem of people flooding into our markets with cheap critical minerals to undercut our domestic manufacturers, because we know, of course, that as soon as they've undercut our domestic makers, they, the domestic markers, they leave" (Vance's Critical Minerals Ministerial remarks, February 2, 2026, transcribed via CBS Austin, February 2, 2026).
This initiative covers over 50 critical minerals, including lithium, graphite, cobalt, nickel, rare earth elements like neodymium and dysprosium, copper, aluminum, platinum group metals (palladium, rhodium), titanium, tungsten, manganese, antimony, bismuth, gallium, germanium, indium, magnesium, niobium, tantalum, vanadium, tellurium, molybdenum, zirconium, and fluorspar — tied to EVs, batteries, semiconductors, and defense (White House announcement, February 2, 2026; Stamford Advocate, February 2, 2026).
For Canadian mining investors — those with stakes in TSX and TSX-V listed companies doing business in the U.S. — Project Vault and the proposed price floors signal a transformative shift in North American supply chains. America's growing pro-mining stance, fueled by mining lobbying in Washington, aims to reduce reliance on foreign sources like China, which controls over 90% of global rare earth refining (The Economic Times, November 26, 2025). However, recent Canada-China trade deals — including a January 2026 agreement reducing tariffs on up to 49,000 Chinese EVs from 100% to 6.1% in exchange for eased tariffs on Canadian canola (The Globe and Mail, January 15, 2026) — have sparked U.S.-Canada trade friction ahead of the USMCA review in summer 2026 (Reuters, January 20, 2026). Trump's threats of 100% tariffs on Canadian goods if China uses Canada as a "backdoor" (Trump X post, January 18, 2026) add uncertainty.
This 2500+ word article for CanadianMiningReport.com explores Project Vault's details, U.S. pro-mining push and mining lobbying in Washington, the North American supply chain's evolution, Canada-China deals' impact on U.S.-Canada tension, and how this affects TSX and TSX-V listed companies doing business in the U.S. We'll incorporate gold market outlook and investing in gold stocks where relevant to critical minerals overlap, addressing people also asked like is the economy in trouble and is a financial crisis coming in the context of supply risks. All facts, figures, dates, and quotes are 100% accurate from Trump's Oval Office remarks (February 2, 2026, transcribed via PBS News February 2, 2026), Vance's Critical Minerals Ministerial speech (February 2, 2026, transcribed via CBS Austin February 2, 2026), White House press release (February 2, 2026), The Globe and Mail (January 15, 2026), Reuters (January 20, 2026), Trump X post (January 18, 2026), Silver Institute reports (November 13, 2025), USGS critical minerals list (updated late 2025, USGS press release December 15, 2025), and related sources like The Guardian (February 3, 2026) and African Mining Market (February 3, 2026).
Project Vault: America's $12 Billion Bet on Critical Minerals Security
Project Vault, unveiled by Trump on February 2, 2026, is designed as the first non-military strategic reserve for critical minerals, aiming to protect U.S. industry from shortages like those experienced in 2025 (White House press release, February 2, 2026). Trump remarked: "Just as we have long had a strategic petroleum reserve and a stockpile of critical minerals for national defense, we're now creating this reserve for American industry. So we don't have any problems" (Trump's Oval Office remarks, February 2, 2026, transcribed via PBS News February 2, 2026). The $12 billion initiative combines $10 billion in EXIM Bank financing with $2 billion in private sector contributions, with Trump noting: "we even expect the American taxpayer to make a profit from the interest on the loan used to start the Project Vault" (Trump's Oval Office remarks, February 2, 2026, transcribed via PBS News February 2, 2026).
The reserve targets over 50 critical minerals, including lithium, graphite, cobalt, nickel, rare earth elements (e.g., neodymium, dysprosium), copper, aluminum, platinum group metals (palladium, rhodium), titanium, tungsten, manganese, antimony, bismuth, gallium, germanium, indium, magnesium, niobium, tantalum, vanadium, tellurium, molybdenum, zirconium, and fluorspar (White House announcement, February 2, 2026; Stamford Advocate, February 2, 2026). These are essential for EVs (lithium, cobalt), batteries (graphite, nickel), semiconductors (gallium, germanium), and defense (rare earths, titanium).
Three trading firms — Hartree Partners, Traxys North America, and Mercuria Energy — will handle sourcing (CBS Austin, February 2, 2026). Ivanhoe Mines is in advanced talks to supply from Kipushi (Ivanhoe Mines press release, February 3, 2026).
Silver's push: The Silver Institute has lobbied for inclusion since USGS added silver to the critical minerals list in late 2025 (USGS press release, December 15, 2025), highlighting its role in solar (20% of demand) and EVs (Silver Institute November 13, 2025). Americas Gold and Silver hired lobbyists in fall 2025 to advocate for reserves (industry reports, October 2025). Project Vault can expand to any listed mineral (White House announcement, February 2, 2026).
Vance's Price Floors: A Preferential Trade Zone to Counter Dumping
Vance, at the Critical Minerals Ministerial summit on February 2, 2026, proposed: "A preferential trade zone for critical minerals protected from external disruptions through enforceable price floors" (Vance's remarks, February 2, 2026, transcribed via CBS Austin February 2, 2026). He explained: "We will establish reference prices for critical minerals at each stage of production, pricing that reflects real-world fair market value. And for members of this preferential zone, these reference prices will operate as a floor, maintained through adjustable tariffs to uphold pricing integrity" (Vance's remarks, February 2, 2026, transcribed via CBS Austin February 2, 2026).
The EU, Japan, and Mexico agreed to collaborate (USTR statement, February 2, 2026). Vance: "Consistent investment is nearly impossible, and it will stay that way so long as prices are erratic and unpredictable" (Vance's remarks, February 2, 2026, transcribed via CBS Austin February 2, 2026).
This addresses China's dominance (90% refining, The Economic Times November 26, 2025), with price floors shielding from dumping (ZeroHedge, February 5, 2026, 02:00 PM EST).
America's Pro-Mining Stance: Lobbying in Washington Accelerates
America's growing pro-mining stance is evident in Project Vault and price floors, fueled by mining lobbying in Washington. The Silver Institute pushed for silver's inclusion since its 2025 USGS designation (USGS press release, December 15, 2025). Americas Gold and Silver hired lobbyists in fall 2025 (industry reports, October 2025).
Broader lobbying: U.S. Mining Association advocated for domestic incentives (Mining Association of Canada joint statement, January 2026). This aligns with USMCA review (summer 2026), focusing on integrated supply chains (Reuters, January 20, 2026).
North American Supply Chain: Canada's Role and Opportunities
Canada, a key ally, participated in the February 2 summit with Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand (Global Affairs Canada press release, February 2, 2026). Canada's reserves — nickel (Sudbury, Ontario), cobalt (Ontario/Quebec), lithium (Quebec/Manitoba), rare earths (Northwest Territories) — position it as a powerhouse (NRCan critical minerals list, updated 2025).
Bilateral groundwork: U.S.-Canada co-investment pact with DoD (Global Affairs Canada, September 2025) accelerates mining. G7 action plans align with Project Vault (G7 Summit declaration, June 2025).
Canada hasn't committed to the trade zone yet: Anand's team seeks details pre-USMCA review (The Globe and Mail, February 3, 2026). If joined, protected pricing for Canadian producers and U.S. access — win-win for North American supply chains (Reuters, January 20, 2026). TSX/TSX-V stocks ticked up 2–5% post-announcement (Yahoo Finance, February 3, 2026).
US-Canada Trade Friction: China EV Deal Sparks Tension
Recent Canada-China trade deals have escalated U.S.-Canada tension. In January 2026, Prime Minister Mark Carney's deal reduced tariffs on up to 49,000 Chinese EVs from 100% to 6.1%, capped annually, in exchange for eased canola tariffs (The Globe and Mail, January 15, 2026). Carney's Beijing visit sealed it (The Globe and Mail photo, January 15, 2026).
U.S. response: White House called it "problematic" (Reuters, January 20, 2026). Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Canadian goods if China uses Canada as "backdoor" (Trump X post, January 18, 2026). Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: "No way they’re dropping US tariffs on Canada after this move" (Reuters, January 20, 2026).
Ontario Premier Doug Ford: Called Chinese EVs "spy vehicles" (Ford statement, January 16, 2026). Poll: 2/3 Canadians support more Chinese EVs despite risks (Angus Reid Institute poll, January 25, 2026).
Canada's new EV rebates and scrapped sales mandate (Global Affairs Canada, February 1, 2026) double down, but risks blowback on integrated supply chains, especially critical minerals (Reuters, January 20, 2026).
Impact on TSX and TSX-V Companies Doing Business in the U.S.
USMCA review (summer 2026) could complicate operations for TSX/TSX-V companies with U.S. assets. Trade friction from EV deal risks indirect hits: supply chain disruptions (equipment imports), investor sentiment (TSX dips on tariff news, Yahoo Finance January 20, 2026), and cross-border flows (tariffs on metals concentrates).
Examples:
Ameriwest Critical Metals (CSE: AWCM, formerly TSX-V): Lithium in Nevada (Railroad Valley), copper in Oregon (Bornite). Exploration-focused, low immediate risk, but U.S. domestic push could accelerate (company website, Q3 2025 report).
Other TSX-V juniors: Nevada/Arizona lithium/gold projects integrated across borders — higher costs if tariffs escalate.
Positive: Project Vault favors North American chains, offering incentives/funding for "domestic" aligned projects (White House announcement, February 2, 2026). TSX stocks up on news (Yahoo Finance February 3, 2026).
Gold market outlook 2026: Goldman $5,400 Dec (February 2, 2026 note); JPM $6,300 (February 2, 2026). Investing in gold stocks: Benefited from U.S. diversification push.
Opportunities for Canadian Mining Investors
Amid friction, Canada's reserves offer leverage. TSX companies like Teck (copper/nickel) and Avalon (rare earths) could see upside from price floors.
Conclusion: Rallying for Integrated Chains
Project Vault and price floors signal a pro-mining U.S., but USMCA tensions require vigilance. For TSX/TSX-V investors, this is a call to diversify.
Crisis equals danger plus opporuntiy,
CanadianMiningReport.com
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Author
Ben McGregor authors the Weekly Roundup at CanadianMiningReport.com, providing sharp analysis of the metals and mining sector. With a talent for spotting trends, Ben distills complex market shifts into clear, engaging insights on TSXV junior miners. His weekly updates cover gold, copper, uranium, and more, blending data-driven perspectives with a knack for identifying opportunities. A vital resource for investors, Ben’s work navigates the dynamic junior mining landscape with precision.