"The impacts of the war and the pandemic are hard to disentangle in market and economy charts, but it looks like positive developments in the war...were overshadowed by the pandemic, marking the end of an equity rally..." Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates, speaking at the World Economic Forum, Davos, Switzerland, January 21, 2020 "Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching gra...Read More
By Avi GilburtIn late October and again in November, I began preparing my subscribers for the last rally phase we experienced in the metals complex. I even penned a number of public articles outlining my expectations for the same. In fact, on November 11, I published an article entitled "Gold Is Likely Approaching A Local Bottom." As we now know, gold actually struck its bottom at the time with...Read More
Index futures were getting drubbed Monday night on news that Apple's Q1 revenues will take a hit from coronavirus-related work slowdowns and lower iPhone sales in China. However, it remained to be seen whether this so-far controlled selloff will become an avalanche when stocks open Monday morning. If it were a Sunday night, the FAANG/lunatic stocks would be moving lower in tandem with the E-Mini...Read More
Ability/inability of spot gold to trade over $1600 will decide the trend for gold for the next three week's. Right now the trend is bullish. Silver will break free from $1740-$1810 trading range and form a new range. Copper, crude oil and nickel, boom or bust two days ahead. Right now trend is bullish for copper and nickel. Japan, Eurozone, Singapore, are among the various nations (apart from Ch...Read More
Gold futures logged their highest settlement in nearly seven yearsThe Dow kicked off the holiday-shortened week with a third-straight loss. The blue-chip index finished down triple digits, gripped by Apple (AAPL) and the dire coronavirus warning against its guidance. The S&P 500closed in the red as well, while theNasdaq pared its losses to finish in the black, although tech stocks and Apple suppl...Read More
Tailwind-inducing upgrades may be aheadBack in October Fastenal Company (NASDAQ:FAST) stock gapped higher, and for months the shares traded in a tight sideways pattern. That was until earlier this month when the equity broke out to fresh highs, potentially foreshadowing an even stronger move higher -- which would only add to FAST's nearly 23% gain over the past year. It also helps that heavy call...Read More
Domino's Pizza is expected to report earnings ahead of the bell this ThursdayRestaurant name Domino's Pizza, Inc. (NYSE:DPZ) has been on a tear in recent weeks. Since staging a sharp bounce off its 100-day moving average in early February, the equity has added almost 10%. Today, the stock is climbing even higher, up 1.1% to trade at $294.80, on pace for its fifth straight win and just within strik...Read More
Gold prices climbed Tuesday to their highest levels since 2013, as continued worries over the COVID-19 epidemic in China put pressure on stocks and sparked demand for assets perceived as havens, including gold and Treasurys. "Gold is finding buoyancy from increased risk aversion, as reflected also in falling stock markets and declining bond yields. The gold price is continuing to defy the firm U.S...Read More
Options traders may be selling to open their calls todayOne stock bucking the broad market trend today is Beyond Meat Inc (NASDAQ:BYND), up 3.7% to trade at $120.50, although the catalyst is unknown. With the faux meat concern now up a whopping 61% in 2020, options traders are getting in on the action today. At last check, 47,000 calls have changed hands, 1.2 times the average intraday amount a...Read More
Apple's revenue warning is slamming the semiconductor spaceThe Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is extending this morning's losses, and is now eyeing its third straight skid as Apple's (AAPL) coronavirus-related quarterly revenue warning continues to spook Wall Street. The tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) is taking a hit, with the semiconductor sector badly shaken by Apple's announcem...Read More
WMT is up 19% year-over-yearBlue chip Walmart Inc (NYSE:WMT) stepped into the earnings confessional this morning, and the results left a lot to be desired. The retail giant reported adjusted fourth-quarter earnings of $1.38 per share on $141.67 billion in revenue, both of which fell short of estimates. Walmart's full-year forecast also missed the mark, citing an upcoming stagnation of e-commerce...Read More
Disappointing earnings are shattering MDT todayMedical equipment name Medtronic PLC (NYSE:MDT) is moving lower this morning, suffering on the heels of a disappointing third-quarter revenue in response to the heightened impact of the coronavirus. Outbreak-based headwinds is nothing new for stocks, as just this morning Apple (AAPL) sent the Dow spiraling on its own revenue warning. In response, MDT...Read More
Keybanc downgraded Tencent to "sector weight" from "overweight"The shares of China-based streaming specialist Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME) are down 3% to trade at $12.75 following a downgrade from Keybanc to "sector weight" from "overweight." The analyst pointed to regulatory headwinds surrounding its lucky draw feature, and ongoing competition from the short video sector. The bea...Read More
Fellow blue chip Walmart is also adding to the bearish backdropU.S. stock futures are signaling a lower open, as traders digest an underwhelming earnings report out of Walmart (WMT), and news from Apple (AAPL) that coronavirus headwinds will cause its second-quarter revenue to come in lower than expected. This latter update is set to weigh on the broader technology sector, with chip stocks in part...Read More
Portfolio insurance through options could help during market confusionThe last time I wrote in this space, I mentioned we could see a buyable pullback, and we got such a pullback a week later after January OPEX. If you remember, I mentioned there was a considerable gap between implied volatility and historical volatility spread, which is usually a precursor to volatility events. But it can be extr...Read More
Jack ChanPosted Feb 17, 2020Gold sector as represented by $HUI is on a long-term BUY signal.Long-term signals can last for months and are more suitable for investors.Short-term is on SELL signal. Short-term signals can last for days and weeks and are more suitable for traders.Speculation on gold is at a new high.Speculation on silver is pulling back from levels of previous tops.Our ratio remains o...Read More
In this update we are going to review a small but important range of commodities / lead indicators which strongly suggest that the seemingly endless bullmarket in US equities is living on borrowed time and will end sooner rather than later, and given how long it has lasted and how extremely overvalued it has become, the downturn will likely start with a crash phase.Regardless of what the eventua...Read More
By Dave KranzlerThe stock market is becoming increasingly disconnected from underlying main street reality. Corporate profits have been declining since the third quarter of 2018. However, pre-tax corporate profits have been declining since the Q3 2014 (this data is available on the St. Louis Fed FRED website). Real corporate profits (adjusted for CPI and including inventory write-downs and capex...Read More
By: Ira EpsteinGold monthly chart is bullish. Gold has been consolidating since the start of the year..Read More
GDP GenesisWe Need a Pleasure MeasureFlawed Data DependenceMy 2020 Forecast and the CoronavirusSIC Registration Is OpenThe welfare of a nation can scarcely be inferred from a measure of [GDP]." Simon Kuznets (who developed GDP), 1934At the risk of restating the obvious, production should result in a product the producer can recognize. That's the case even for intangible products. Artists know th...Read More