The AOCE and WB have moderate overall forecasts for the metals in 2025 inline with IMF forecasts for a decline in economic growth and inflation, although we see the probability of a stagflationary scenario as still reasonably high.Read More

The past year was a difficult one overall for the metals, with the main standouts to the upside being a geopolitical risk-driven gain in gold, a China-driven rise in iron ore and a surge in uranium on broadening global support for nuclear power (Figure 1). A jump in global interest rates to near two-decade highs saw recession fears persist all year, and while one still did not actually eru...Read More

This year the post-global health crisis boom was brought to an end by a surge in inflation to forty-year highs, a major rise in global interest rates in an attempt to curb the rising prices and surging geopolitical risk after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While precious metals held up reasonably well as markets turned to them as a risk hedge, by Q2/22 the higher interest rates put an end t...Read More

Chile is the world leader in copper production, at 28.5% of the total in 2020, and this looks set to continue, with the country having the largest global reserves, at 23.0% of total. It is also the global leader for molybdenum, which is often found along with copper, and is a major lithium player, holding 51.1% of global reserves. Read More

Newfoundland has become a gold exploration hotspot over the past few years, with the sector seeing some of its strongest activity ever. While the province remains a small contributor to Canadian gold production, it has a substantial mineral industry well supported by the government, focused on iron ore, copper and nickel, and the surge in exploration suggests that gold output from the...Read More

Nevada is the core of the U.S. gold output, accounting for by far the majority, at 75.4% on average for the past year. The state looks set to remain a dominant player in U.S. gold, as it accounts for 49% of total U.S. reserves, with Alaska slightly ahead with 51% of reserves, but just 8.6% of current production. The U.S. accounts for 6.1% of global gold output, making Nevada one of the largest gol...Read More

The Golden Triangle in northwestern British Columbia has historically been a major site of Canadian gold production, beginning as early as the mid 1800s. There was a wave of production in the 1990s which cooled as the gold price declined, but larger scale production resumed in 2017, and the area has seen surging exploration interest over the past year, given that the region has some of the largest...Read More

In this report we outline the Quebec gold mining industry, including its major producers, and a survey of many of the junior miners focused on the province. Quebec accounts for 34% of Canadian gold production (second to Ontario, with 44%) and remains a major focus for both producers and junior miners.Read More

Red Lake has been one of the most prolific gold mining districts in Canada and the world, with exploration having started in the 1920s, and production, which began in the 1930s, continuing to the present day. The district is known for the high grade of its gold, its infrastructure, and strong institutional support, given the long history of mining in the area.Read More

The market melt-up is in full force as we enjoy the Thanksgiving trading week.This is easily my favorite holiday. I get a midweek break in the market action filled with food, family, and football without the added stress of exchanging gifts and all the cleanup that comes after a busy Christmas morning with the kids...This year, the vibes couldn't be more bullish. The crypto and market bulls have...Read More

As we float in the trough following the first wave of inflation, bracing for the next, it seems an excellent time to review a few alternative inflation hedges.Today we’ll examine the benefits of owning firearms, farmland, and fixed-rate mortgages during inflationary periods. Let's get started.Inflation Hedge No. 1: FirearmsI've honed my "firearms as a hedge" pitch to perfection. I've found t...Read More

In Tuesday's Rude Awakening edition, I wrote about how Donald Trump seems to be melding mercantilism and libertarianism into his strange brew. Libertarianism is for his domestic policy, and mercantilism is for his foreign policy.That got me thinking about another head of state who had two different personalities: one kindly face for his beloved domestic subjects and one utterly evil face for his f...Read More

With just 2 months left in office, President Biden and his handlers have decided to poke the bear once again.The New York Times reports that the Biden admin has given Ukraine the greenlight to strike deep into Russian territory using American missiles. The new rules will apparently allow Ukraine to strike into the Kursk region of Russia, where Ukraine has invaded, and possibly beyond.On Tuesday, t...Read More

Melt-up season is upon us and stocks are posting big moves... in both directions!The sharp election rally has given way to some volatility as investors digest the moves, fill some gaps, and nervously wait to see what stocks and sectors bounce first.It's easy to start feeling a little bearish here. The percentage of S&P components above their respective 50-day moving averages recently slipped b...Read More

Now that the election is in the rearview mirror, the focus now turns to what the next four years are going to look like in a second Trump term. From all indications, things will not be business as usual.Trump Turns The TablesAfter being inaugurated as president in 2009, Barack Obama met with congressional Republicans to discuss his economic plans. There was a lot of complaining and pushback from t...Read More

"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria."-John Templeton, legendary mutual fund managerIn 2006, I asked a realtor friend if we were in a housing bubble.He assured me that everything was fine. Defaults were low - and this is my favorite - "housing prices always go up".Back then, I didn't know that the Federal Reserve had intentionally created...Read More

During this week's editorial meeting, my good friend and colleague Mohan brought up "answer engines." I had never heard of them, so I explored the idea. Let's have some fun with it.I love AI, but sometimes, we've got to be honest about the technological implications of some inventions.Let's face it: answer engines are here to save us all the trouble of understanding or nuance. They offer a distill...Read More

The persecution and prosecution of President Donald Trump is finally winding down.Jack Smith, a primary player in the lawfare campaign against Trump, has filed to dismiss the case involving classified documents at Mar-a-Lago. Rep. Jim Jordan has instructed Special Counsel Smith to preserve all records related to the cases.The Deep State tried everything to make Trump lose. In total, 91 frivolous f...Read More

There are times when it pays to be contrarian.This is not one of those times. Stocks have exploded higher since the election, with some of the market’s most speculative areas taking on leadership roles.If you're looking for a melt-up, you've come to the right place.I've spent weeks talking about how the markets are primed and ready for a major move higher. All the signs were pointing to the...Read More

Now that Trump is on his way to the White House as the 47th president, it's not too soon to start building a portfolio that will outperform the stock market in the early years of the new Trump administration.This kind of active asset allocation requires close attention to prospective policy details and their possible impact on specific business models. Not all stocks will perform well under the ne...Read More

On Wednesday morning, I awoke feeling more optimistic than I have in a long time.The campaign was surreal. President Trump's last-second head tilt to avoid the assassin's bullet. The spurious lawfare assaults. Lies about collusion with Russia.And how about Elon Musk's emergence as Donald J. Trump's No. 1 backer? RFK Jr.'s MAHA (Make America Healthy Again) movement, too. And the last minute endorse...Read More

Let's get this out of the way first...I don't have any pressing Election Day insights for you.I don't know which polls to trust. I have no idea whether the race is going to be a nail-biter or a blowout. These days, you can just dig up whatever data you want to support your own biases. You'll even find wildly different odds on the various election betting markets.In short, nobody knows nuthin'.Mean...Read More

In a time when democracy is often held up as the ultimate expression of human progress, it can be jarring to consider the views of someone who saw its dangers as much as its strengths.The French aristocrat and political philosopher Alexis de Tocqueville traveled across the United States in the early 1830s and distilled his observations into a landmark work, Democracy in America. Tocqueville’...Read More

Tomorrow is the day that Americans have been waiting for with anticipation (and yes, many with dread).What does a Trump or Harris win mean for the country? The differences couldn't be more stark.What to Expect From a Trump VictoryTrump supports lower taxes, less regulation, higher tariffs on imported goods, a secure border, deportation of illegal immigrants (starting with criminals and terrorists)...Read More

A reader recently asked me which presidential candidate would be more bullish for gold.That one's easy. Kamala Harris.A President Harris administration would preserve and strengthen the status quo. To start with, we'd see a continued bonanza of bad regulation, spending and taxes. Add in poor capital allocation and misaligned incentives, and we have a recipe for stagflation and reckless monetary po...Read More

A majority of American voters distrust the pillars upon which democracy rests the vote itself.They perceive cracks within the marble. Some perceive fissures. Reports Rasmussen:Most voters think this year's election could be impacted by cheating...A new telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and the Heartland Institute finds that 62% of likely voters are concerned that cheating will aff...Read More

Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway’s late Vice Chairman and Warren Buffett’s longtime bosom buddy, achieved legendary status in investing circles. But Munger's genius doesn't rest in poring over spreadsheets or stock-picking scanners. Instead, he's famous for using "mental models" guiding principles and ways of thinking that he's curated from a broad spectrum of disciplines.Munger's...Read More

If you search Google for the latest election news, you might get the impression the race is tied, or even that Kamala Harris is in the lead.USA Today's coverage, for example, cites a (worthless) national poll which shows Harris in the lead by 1%. They portray various battleground states as "in a dead heat"… "deadlocked"… and "neck-and-neck".Notorious misinformation outlet MSNBC just pu...Read More

It's hard to believe, but the presidential election is just one week away. It'll all come down to the key swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada.It's a tight race, although it appears to be breaking for Trump.The Democratic strategy is essentially to call Trump Hitler and a would-be dictator who would jail his political opponents (sound famil...Read More