The past few years have been unusual for gold and interest rates.Both have ripped higher together.Historically, these two are often inversely correlated, meaning when the bond yields are high, gold is weak. And vice versa. But no longer.The chart below shows the price of gold vs. U.S. real interest rates (10y bond yield minus inflation expectations):As you can see, the two traded inversely up unti...Read More

Over the past 10 years, "socially-conscious" investors have shunned sectors such as tobacco, firearms, oil and gas, and alcohol.For example, these huge investment firms refuse to own any tobacco stocks or bonds:Allianz SE: $2.3T AUM (Assets Under Management)CalPERS (California Public Employees’ Retirement System): $469B AUMAXA Group: $950B AUMNorwegian Pension Fund: $1.74T AUMThat's a tiny s...Read More

The walls are closing in on Ukraine's President Zelensky.In a meeting with allies in Germany this week, the embattled leader requested NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine.“Our goal is to find as many instruments as possible to force Russia into peace. I believe that such deployment of partners’ contingents is one of the best instruments. Let’s be more practical in making it poss...Read More

Earlier this week, Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election was officially certified by lawmakers in a joint session of Congress.Kamala Harris presided over the ceremony as president of the Senate and faced the awkward task as she formally certified Trump's victory and her own loss.Notably, the Democrats set aside some members' views that Trump is ineligible to return to the...Read More

It's amazing how a country with $36 trillion in debt give or take has suddenly recovered its swagger thanks to its loose-lipped incoming chief executive.Don't get me wrong, Trump absolutely had to get elected to ensure that cackling moron, Kamala Harris, didn't get behind the Resolute Desk. I'm thrilled DJT will be inaugurated again in a couple of weeks.And yet, the MAGA crowd, of which I cons...Read More

In the book Crisis and Leviathan, libertarian thinker Robert Higgs pointed out that the state uses crises to ratchet up its power and control over citizens. With each new "crisis" - often directly or indirectly caused by the state itself - government grows and our freedom shrinks.The root cause of the September 11, 2001 attacks was US interventionism, for example. As I said in a presidential debat...Read More

Following the global financial crisis, I grew to despise cash.The era of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) meant yields on savings accounts, CDs, and bonds were pitifully low.For years we were earning less than 1% on cash, while real inflation was more like 3-4%. That translated to a 2-3% annual loss in real purchasing power. This was textbook financial repression.So for a long time, having excess...Read More

We waited (and waited) for stocks to find a bottom and recover during the December slide.Then, we crossed our fingers for a low-volume melt up in that magical window between Christmas and New Year's Day.But nothing happened.Santa was a no-show over our little holiday break. We were instead hit with wave after wave of selling as speculators ditched their broken trades and pouted about the lumps of...Read More

Investors are eyeing gold very carefully right now. And it's not hard to see why.As you can see from the chart below, the yellow metal had a great year...Long-time readers will know that I've been bullish on gold for a while.Many investors have been flocking to gold in the last few years and for good reason. It’s a great diversifier, it protects against inflation, and it’s a safe-hav...Read More

The drumbeat of the trade war continues to build momentum.Much depends on the outcome of this conflict between America and China. The stakes are high.Both sides are ramping up sanctions and export restrictions. The U.S. has heavily restricted China's access to AI hardware such as GPUs, and banned export of the equipment necessary to manufacture such tech.The Biden admin slapped 100% tariffs on Chi...Read More

There has been a lot reported in recent days about the return of currency wars. With Trump 2.0 about to begin, let's review his last term and what to expect in the second.Trump badly bungled his transition after first being elected president in 2016. He was not ready with a long list of loyal appointees. Many of his senior appointments such as Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State, James Mattis as S...Read More

AI is set to usher in a new industrial revolution.To prepare, I've been brushing up on past industrial revolutions, starting with the first one, which took place from around 1750 to 1830.A few of the more disruptive inventions from this period include:Steam enginesMechanized factoriesPower looms (textiles)Stocking frames (knitting)Coke smelting (iron tech)The adoption of these tools completely cha...Read More

John Dewey called his ideas "one of the great philosophical contributions of the 19th century."Leo Tolstoy lauded his work as a moral and economic solution to inequality.In 1892, Alfred Russel Wallace declared his book Progress and Poverty “undoubtedly the most remarkable and important book of the present century.” Wallace had earlier helped develop and publicize The Origin of Species....Read More

Let's talk about the Bitcoin-Eating Pacman.No, not Michael Saylor...No, not El Salvador...I'm talking about Bitcoin's biggest threat: quantum computers.Before you freak out, let's start here:Bitcoin is fine.Despite the clickbait headlines, it's not about to be nuked into oblivion by quantum computers tomorrow.But let's talk about why you should care, because the quantum threat to Bitcoin is real n...Read More

What's happening with inflation?Allegedly, it's back down in the 3.5% range, give or take; and to do it right one must give and take quite a bit. That is, again, the government number jockeys shamelessly cook the books, as we see from reviewing a site like ShadowStats.com.Source: Shadowstats.comIf the government used the same methodology today as it used back in, say, 1980, we'd see a much higher...Read More

Carjacking has reached epidemic proportions in major U.S. cities and even some suburban areas. What used to be a somewhat rare crime (or almost unheard of in many areas) has now become commonplace. Here are some headlines just from the past 48 hours as of this writing:"Man critically injured in shootout during attempted car-jacking on West Side"KABB Fox 29, San Antonio"Man stabbed in attempted car...Read More

During Intel's long stretch of breakthroughs in the 1990s and early 2000s, it released new, faster chips every 1 to 2 years.It was an incredible feat, and rapidly swept us into the internet age.OpenAI, creator of ChatGPT, was moving at a similar speed early on. A new, wildly improved model every 1-2 years. But recently the company has been releasing a new model every 3 to 4 monthsAdditionally, its...Read More

What a mess!Buyers are melting down following Wednesday's Powell presser, crushing the hopes and dreams of a market melt-up into the holidays.This week's rate cut didn't register on most folk's radar. After all, a 25 basis point cut was a sure thing. What the market clearly wasn't expecting were Powell's comments that the FOMC wasn't planning on as many cuts in 2025 as advertised.Keep in mind, we'...Read More

By the early 1900s, Argentina was in a golden age. It rose to become a top 10 nation in global wealth.The country had a top-notch railway system, rich agricultural yields, bountiful mineral wealth, and a high-growth economy.Its middle class grew by leaps and bounds. Laissez-faire capitalism had done wonders for the country.Following the Great Depression in 1929, everything changed.The state took o...Read More

"I always tried to turn every disaster into an opportunity," said John D. Rockefeller, one of the wealthiest Americans in history. The late 1800s was a time of high tariff barriers, flourishing American industry, low regulations, and booming trade within our borders. It was part of the historical American System that Jim described in the recent Strategic Intelligence issue.The American System refe...Read More