China will allow 15,000 tonnes of ferrous scrap to be imported in 2019, according to a notice seen by Fastmarkets MB this week.The China Solid Waste & Chemicals Management Center listed nine companies in Zhejiang province that have been awarded quotas to import ferrous scrap through ports in the cities of Ningbo and Shanghai. The companies, listed below, can use their quotas in the third and fourt...Read More
A signal that's been extremely bullish for stocks is soundingIn case you haven't heard, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) gained just over 17% in the first half of 2019. That's the strongest first half of a year since 1997. The question now is whether a six-month rally like this can continue for the rest of the year. I'll look at prior years where the first half was extremely strong and see how the rest of...Read More
A spike in Chinese lithium carbonate imports in the first two months of the second quarter reflects a drop in prices that made the material more attractive to buyers.China imported 4,539 tonnes of lithium carbonate in April-May 2019, according to the most recent available figures from Chinese customs, up by 37% from 3,315 tonnes in the whole of the first quarter.The monthly average value of the im...Read More
Tin's three-month price on the London Metal Exchange climbed by more than 3% at the close of trading on Wednesday July 3, settling above the nearby $18,000-per-tonne resistance level after sliding by more than 6% at Tuesday's close. More than 600 lots of tin were traded by the close, around half of Tuesday's total volumes traded but higher than the June average of around 300 lots. Recovering...Read More
Chinese nickel premiums dipped in the week to Tuesday July 2 while the closed import arbitrage window and sufficient supply of material in the region dampened physical appetite for the metal and European and United States' premiums continued to trade flat on holiday season illiquidity. Arbitrage loss in China sends both nickel premiums down European premiums trade flat amid summer season illiquidi...Read More
Fastmarkets proposes to amend several semi-finished products' price assessment specifications in response to changing market conditions.The amendments will include new payment terms, tonnages and timing.The proposed amendments will allow Fastmarkets to consider more spot liquidity within its assessments of billet prices in Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and Iran as well as the Iranian sla...Read More
- Craig HemkeA few years ago, we wrote the salient article on the subject of derivative supply and demand on Comex. Given the recent price breakout and sentiment change, it's likely a good idea to re-visit this topic today. The post from 2017 dealt with Comex silver and the original link is below. However, since it is extremely important that you understand this dynamic, I'm going to ask the...Read More
When last we left the 3 Metallic Amigos... I can't remember the detailed individual statuses and am too busy to go read the post. They were something like borderline hysterical gold, attractive silver and bouncing (but not yet bullish) copper. So here's today's update on these Amigos.Gold is testing the high today after not even pulling a 38% Fib retrace. A real bull market launch may not pull...Read More
Here are five Fastmarkets MB stories you might have missed on Wednesday July 3 that are worth another look.China will allow nine companies to import ferrous scrap in 2019, according to a notice seen by Fastmarkets MB this week. Turkish authorities are considering whether to launch a trade defense case against imports of hot-rolled coil from the European Union, market sources&nb...Read More
- David HaggithIf you're a Trump supporter, you're going to hate this article and love it; likewise, if you are a Trump hater. I am going to lay out evidence that Trump is either the biggest moron of a president the US has ever had but also my own 4-D chess explanation that would make him cunning if true. Which is true, I have no idea; but I will lay out equally strong arguments for either vie...Read More
- Gary ChristensonCity One: DebtapolisIn this fictional world a financial genius and his offspring executed a brilliant plan over several centuries.The government authorized his bank to create and print paper money, backed by gold or silver.The bank accepted gold, silver and other valuables as deposits into its vaults, and loaned paper money to governments, businesses, politicians, and individ...Read More
The prime reason for the rise in gold is short covering apart from recession concerns. Trade war is here to stay. IMF chief Lagarde moving to lead European central bank chief is also one the possible reason. Investment demand is on the higher side with every rise in gold price. Hopefully silver will now try and catch up with the gold price rally. Opec has expressed concerns over a weak demand....Read More
The London Metal Exchange has just finished its trial to calculate nickel prices using a volume weighted average price (VWAP) method on the exchange's electronic trading platform. If early indications are anything to go by, metals market participants did not embrace this method of price discovery in the way some had anticipated. For three months since Monday March 18, closing prices for nickel car...Read More
The United States Secretary of Commerce has joined the growing chorus of voices questioning the current method of setting the US Midwest aluminium premium. Wilbur Ross said the US Midwest aluminium premium is at inflated levels that do not justify the cost of transportation and logistical handling costs that it was originally designed to reflect. His view is being echoed by a number of...Read More
A decade ago, the Shanghai Futures Exchange launched its steel rebar futures contract. In the years that followed it has become the gold standard for steel derivatives, achieving a success that other exchanges aspire to emulate. And they are definitely trying, with a total of 11 steel derivatives contracts launched by the main trading exchanges since. SHFE, which launched a wire rod futures contra...Read More
Taiwanese and South Korean hot-rolled coil (HRC) producers, as well as major international trading companies, will likely to be hit by new US duties imposed this week on cold-rolled steel imports from Vietnam, market sources told Fastmarkets MB today.Vietnamese corrosion-resistant steel and cold-rolled coils (CRC) produced from South Korean and Taiwanese HRC substrate will face new cash...Read More
Average investor allocation to equities is an incredibly powerful predictor of equity and gold forward returns.Equity allocation is currently higher than long-term averages.Historic relationships suggest strong performance from gold on a 10-year forward basis.Thesis In this article, we decompose what we consider to be the most significant predictor of future gold returns (GLD); the average investo...Read More
Tin's three-month price on the London Metal Exchange climbed by more than 3% at the close of trading on Wednesday July 3, settling above the nearby $18,000-per-tonne resistance level after sliding by more than 6% at Tuesday's close. More than 600 lots of tin were traded by the close, around half of Tuesday's total volumes traded but higher than the June average of around 300 lots. Recovering...Read More
Market participants avoided sending aluminium to the United States in June despite a widening arbitrage between Southeast Asian warehouses and the US Midwest, with uncertainty about tariffs continuing to limit risk appetite.US President Donald Trump removed on May 17 this year the 10% tariff on aluminium imports for Canada and Mexico that he had initially implemented in March 2018. Market particip...Read More
Tin premiums in Europe, North America and Asia were stable over the week to July 3, with demand reportedly slowing before the summer period, while a recent slump in LME tin's three-month price to a four-year low has prompted further questions about the LME tin price's current instability. European participants ponder demand impulses Excess supply caps US premiums Closed import arbitrage window lim...Read More