As shown in the graph below, the firsthalf of 2020 produced an unusual change in the relationship between goldprices, stock prices and recessions, something that has only happened twicebefore in the last fifty years. Each of the two previous times this hasoccurred after a long run up in stock prices, it has been part of acyclical change to a cycle favoring gold over stocks for a decade or morether...Read More

During the bull market years between 2000 and 2011 the US dollar and currencies played a key role in the PM complex bull market. Tonight I would like to go back and visit some of these old charts and see how they pertain to our current bull market.Lets start with a simple GOLD:USD ratio chart that goes back to the 2011 all time high in gold. The bottom for the ratio came in toward the end of 2015...Read More

The move we saw in Silver early this week to new 6-year high price levels, above $22.60, is quite likely the biggest upside move in Silver since the bottom in March 2020 – after the US stock market collapsed because of the COVID-19 virus event. This new rally in Silver is likely the move we’ve been suggesting to our followers relating to a series of measured upside price moves totaling...Read More

Here are five Fastmarkets stories you might have missed on Monday August 3 that are worth another look.The year 2020 has been the ultimate stress test for commodity market participants and will stay challenging amid significantly impaired consumer demand trends due to the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the chief executive officer of Concord Resources. Mark Hansen said the economy is operatin...Read More

We tend to spend a lot of timelooking into the rearview mirror, especially when under duress.Connected to this is somethingpsychologists call "recency bias." This simply means that what hashappened in the near to intermediate past tends to inform and influence us asto how we should behave in the future.The 2011 to early 2019 precious metals bear saga was broken only by a six-month bullhi...Read More

Zinc concentrate treatment charges (TCs) rose for the second consecutive month in July after hitting a 19-month low in May, with spot availability increasing slightly.Fastmarkets' price assessment for zinc spot concentrate TCs, cif China was $165-185 per tonne on Friday July 31, up by $5 from $160-180 per tonne on June 26.Mining companies are beginning to recover lost production after Covid-19 pan...Read More

European leaders stroke a historic deal that could be a game-changer and provide a support for the euro and gold against the U.S. dollar.Historic deal. Pivotal moment for Europe. On Monday, the EU leaders agreed on a massive economic stimulus plan, after a long and crotchety summit. If passed through the European Parliament and ratified by all EU states, the European Commission could borrow 750 bi...Read More

Amid a hot market for copper, China's smelters are jumping in on a profitable niche business dominated by traders.Eight major copper smelting and mining companies - China Gold, China Copper, Baiyin, Daye, Yantai Guoxing, Jinchuan, Minmetals and Nanguo - are lobbying for licenses to import and process complex concentrate, Fastmarkets has learned.     In a race to receive final approv...Read More

The torrid rally in thesilver market reached a major milestone this morning as prices hit $21/oz.On Monday, the silverspot price tracked by Money Metals Exchange closed at $20.12 (thefutures market price settled at $20.19).That marks the firstabove-$20 close for silver since 2016.The white-hot silver marketis busting through some resistance levels that should clear the way for higherhighs ahead. S...Read More

The year 2020 has been the ultimate stress test for commodity market participants and will stay challenging amid significantly impaired consumer demand trends due to the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the chief executive officer of Concord Resources. Mark Hansen said the economy is operating on 70-90% of its usual demand strength due to the pandemic, with huge portions of previously high-demand g...Read More

Here are five Fastmarkets stories you might have missed on Monday August 3 that are worth another look.The year 2020 has been the ultimate stress test for commodity market participants and will stay challenging amid significantly impaired consumer demand trends due to the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the chief executive officer of Concord Resources. Mark Hansen said the economy is operatin...Read More

It has been quite some time since I have published an article on gold. Unfortunately, we have become so busy at Elliottwavetrader that I simply have not had the time to publish many public articles.So, as we are approaching an inflection point, I thought it would be an appropriate time to publish a public article.Now, I have to be honest. I am quite disappointed at what I am reading publicly about...Read More

Our research team believes Crude Oil and Energy, in general, has stalled near major resistance and maybe setting up a big downside move as the COVID-19 virus continues to roil regional and global economies.  The recent news that the COVID-19 virus cases have skyrocketed suggests further economic shutdowns may push oil prices below $35 ppb over the next few weeks and months.  Our research...Read More

In this week's advisory, sector expert Michael Ballanger reviews the most recent market news, celebrates old-school communication techniques and offers strategies for investing in the dog days of summer.As the month of July moves into its final ten-day stretch, I see NASDAQ records falling left and right as the drivers of fear that dominated in March are now "yesterday's news." Rising second waves...Read More

We’ve been micro-managing silver lately in NFTRH and NFTRH+ updates and that is for a reason. The reason is that gold’s wild little bro has been rallying – in what is turning out to be 5 clear waves – since the March crash.When that crash reversed, my view, and hence the NFTRH view was that it was likely to have been a horrifying shakeout of the silver bulls that due to its...Read More

Previously,I have shown how the Dow has actually outperformed silver and gold since thecreation of the Federal Reserve in 1913.Today, if silver had the same kind ofperformance as the Dow since around the creation of the Federal Reserve in1913, then it would have topped out at $225.20 [(29568.6/78.78)*.6). Yet, itonly topped out around $50 in 1980 and 2011.In 1973 silver was in a similar type ofpos...Read More

China’s economy grew 3.2 percent in Q2 2020. The expansion was above expectations, but it does not have to sink gold.Last week, China reported that its economy grew 3.2 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of this year, following a 6.8 percent contraction in the previous quarter, as the chart below shows. Importantly, the actual growth rate beat the market expectations of a 2.5 percent...Read More

Last week, we wrote that gold miners flashed an“extremely overbought” signal, which they had only flashed once in the past –almost right at the 2016 top. The GoldMiners Bullish Percent Index recently moved to the highest levelthat it could reach – 100.The only other case when the index was at 100, wasin mid-2016. We marked this situation with a vertical dashedline. Did min...Read More

As the world's economic engine starts to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, the demand for certain key commodities are a good indicator of the rebound strength.The S&P GSCI Commodity Index (Chart 1) is a collection of24 commodities from all commodity sectors (energy products, industrial metals, agricultural products, livestock products and precious metals). Since 2011, the index has been in a...Read More

"Hope and fear look different on a chart"Recently in these pages, we noted that bull markets in stocks tend to end with "a subtly slowing ascent" rather than with a final "spike" higher, as many investors believe. Historical examples were provided.It was also pointed out that, by contrast, commodities do tend to end major uptrends with a price spike.The Wall Street classic book, Elliott Wave Princ...Read More