When I was younger, I was taught that if you cannot say something nice, don't say anything at all. Well, when many of you have asked why I have not written about metals in quite some time, now you know the reason. But, I think that's about to change.Before we begin, I want to give you a little background about my history in the metals market.For those who may not remember the action we experi...Read More
The gold mining sector is doing what it should do amid fading inflationIf you have tuned out inflationist gold bugs since mid-2020 you are now in position to capitalize, unlike scores of inflation bugs who’d already bought (and likely sold into tax loss season, 2022).Readers of nftrh.com have seen this space write many times how gold is not about inflation. At least not primarily. That compo...Read More
As investors and others continue to jockey for position in order to announce that “the bottom is in for gold” or that “gold owners received an early Christmas present” or “crypto failures will translate to higher prices for gold”, it is clear that most of them are thinking that increased demand for gold will drive its price higher.That is not the way it works....Read More
Gold’s rally was just stopped by theresistance provided by its previous high and its 60-week moving average. Willgold now reverse? Theabove chart features gold prices in terms of weekly candlesticks. As you cansee, it just approached its August high. Andgold failed to move above it. Last week, I wrote:Theresistance is provided by the weekly closing prices, and since the current weekends toda...Read More
Here’s how to make sense of thedifferent figures reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).Macroeconomics From a macroeconomic point of view, the US dollar index (DXY or USDX) has maintained its downward trend within its recent regressionchannel, probably still eyeing the next quarterly S2 pivot just located at the$100 mark. U.S. Dollar Currency Index (DXY), dailychartAs we wil...Read More
The invalidations of breakouts andbreakdowns are strong signals in the opposite direction, and we just saw themthroughout the market – also in gold. The gold price has recently invalidated its small breakout above the 38.2% Fibonacciretracement level, which is a strong bearish sign. If it was just gold where wesaw this kind of performance, we could say it was by chance.However, since we saw...Read More
Physical gold and silver will never become worthless. This fact does not make for much of a marketing pitch. But given recent events, this is a much more important feature than it looks at first glance.Americans, and investors around the world, live in an age of collapsing confidence in institutions. The bubble economy built on zero interest rates by out-of-control central bankers appears to be in...Read More
The HUI rally has hit the logical resistance target where the 200 day moving average meets clear lateral resistance. It has done so in a not particularly overbought fashion due to the chop and grind it took to get here off the lows of the shaded bottoming pattern that we established and tracked in NFTRH over the last several weeks. Now what for the HUI rally (and gold stocks in general)? Well, any...Read More
Over the past two years, there have been some wild and crazy things happen with regard to premiums charged and paid for various physical silver investment products. For the privilege of owning silver in certain specific forms, investors are paying through the nose; and, apparently, willingly so. WHY? Is the cash burning holes in their pockets? I just completed a review of current market premiums...Read More
The primary regulator of the rises and falls in oil's prices is market psychology As I write on the morning of Friday, Nov. 18, crude oil is on track for its second weekly decline.The financial media usually finds "reasons" for a market's price action that are rooted in "market fundamentals," and this decline in oil's price was no exception.On Thurs., Nov. 17, a CNBC headline noted:Oil falls on e...Read More
Expert Clive Maund reviews silver's 4-month, 1-year, and 5-year charts to tell you where he believes the future is headed for this precious metal. When the dollar broke down over a week ago, silver joined gold in breaking higher, as we can see on its 4-month chart below, and now we are seeing a normal post-breakout reaction as the dollar rallies somewhat to relieve the extreme condition that resul...Read More
For someone who uses the bond markets as important indicators to the macro analysis, I am the furthest thing from an astute bond trader and am certainly not a bond investor. This probably owes to the fact that my earliest (gold bug) training in the markets was with an eye toward the dangers of debt in a fiat driven system.In other words, how could I take seriously the debt of a government hopeless...Read More
With the breakdown of the U.S. dollar, expert Clive Maund reviews charts for gold, copper, and palladium to tell you where he believes the metals are headed and which he thinks you should buy. The last update was prescient as it called for a major breakdown in the dollar and breakouts by gold and silver, all of which happened just days later. If this were 2010 or 2011, this update would have gene...Read More
While comparing gold and bitcoin givessome idea of the patterns in the market, can the slide of junior miners bepredicted by the same method?Those of you who have been following myanalyses for a while may be expecting me to write that it is based on the stockmarket's rally and thus only temporary, as miners will follow gold soonerrather than later. That’s their ultimate source of revenue (cu...Read More
An unusually warm October has helped natural gas inventories, but gas prices don't seem to believe it. Oil has seen three days of heavy selling volume ending with a hammer candle stick Monday. Birchcliff, Callon, and Earthstone should benefit. Gold stocks have started a new bull market. The question is, will the gold price confirm it?The HUI index ran from a low of 180.41 on November 3, 2022, to a...Read More
Oil, like just about everything else that is related to the markets, bottomed around the March / April 2020 pandemic crash low. The oil complex had been one of the worst performing areas even underperforming the PM complex if that is possible. When oil did bottom it did so in dramatic fashion capitulating hard to the downside in one last climatic thrust.I built a few new combo chart this weekend,...Read More
We think we know most (if not, all) of what we need to know about gold. Investors do their research and marketers spin their best yarn(s). Support is offered with an amazing array of fundamental and technical factors on display for all to see. But what are we not seeing? NORMALCY BIAS DEFINITIONnormalcy bias (noun)“The phenomenon of disbelieving one’s situation when fac...Read More
Last week was full of events, but themost important one clarified after Friday’s closing bell – gold formed areversal “shooting star” candlestick.The implications are just as you thinkthey are. After a sharp run-up, the rally has run its course, and the yellowmetal is now about to slide again.Let’s take a closer look. Gold AnalysisThecorrective upswing was quite sizab...Read More
The macro market and economic backdrop continues to pivot favorable for the gold mining sectorThe risk/reward for gold stocks has been very good after 2.5 years of correction that, contrary to what a majority of gold bugs think, was very valid amid the post-pandemic cycle of cyclical inflation. I won’t review the details about why here, as it is beyond the scope of this article and I’v...Read More
History tends to repeat itself, andmining stocks appear to be repeating their 2008 performance, which has veryinteresting implications.Why do I think that gold miners arerepeating their 2008 price patterns? Please take a look at the below chart. The only times when gold stocks declinedsimilarly sharply as they did this year were in 2013 and in 2008.Given that the situation in stocks appears to be...Read More