Hi,Gold has long been seen as the refuge for investors who are concerned about economic downturns and inflation. And it's tempting to attribute the metal's price movements to factors like supply and demand, the dollar and interest rates. But Elliott wave analysis shows the actual driver of gold prices is ... market psychology.Elliott wave analysis is the only method that objectifies market psychol...Read More

Gold stocks have mostlyground lower to sideways since spring, leaving this contrarian sector reallyout of favor again.  Yet both the metaland its miners’ stocks are early on in their strongest seasonal rallies of theyear.  From late October to late February,gold tends to enjoy excellent gains which the gold stocks leverage.  Given 2023’s great winter-rally setup, gold&rs...Read More

The Copper/Gold ratio has been indicating an oncoming counter-cyclical environment since breaking down in June, 2022Copper: Cyclical, inflation sensitive and a material of positive economic progress.Gold: Much more counter-cyclical, less inflation sensitive and a ‘liquidity haven’ material of long-term monetary value. I have not posted the monthly chart of the Copper/Gold ratio probabl...Read More

Caught between conflicting forces,will pivot optimism outweigh the economic malaise that should unfold in themonths ahead?A Short-Lived Rally?From war premiums to pivot hopes, silver seessunny skies, as the international and domestic fundamental outlooksincrease investors’ enthusiasm , as the international and domesticfundamental outlooks increase investors’ enthusiasm. However, t...Read More

As the concern with geopoliticspeaked, so did gold price. Silver and mining follow. Are you prepared for thelikely outcome?Gold Peaks and SlidesIn my yesterday’sanalysis, I wrote the following about gold: Goldmade a few attempts to move above the all-important $2,000 level and the risingresistance lines, and it failed all of them. The strong short-term momentum isgone, just as the fear of th...Read More

The gold miners’ stocksare lagging gold’s strong young upleg, their gains falling behind.  Their striking performance gap is undermininggold-stock sentiment, leaving traders even warier of this sector.  While definitely vexing, this anomaly has onlyarisen over the past couple weeks.  Goldstocks’ precedent during past major gold uplegs implies this will unwind soon,...Read More

As the Federal Reserve puts a hold on interest rates, investors have to ask themselves whether the elevated inflation rate is also on hold.The Fed’s preferred measure of so-called “core” inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, most recently came in at 3.7%. Despite having fallen substantially since last year’s peak, the official inflation rate has yet to approach t...Read More

With the economic backdrop continuingto deteriorate, silver’s bull case has become increasingly fragile.Ominous Signs AheadWhile silver has bounced off its recentlows, the white metal continues to underperform gold. And whenvolatile areas of the precious metals market showcase weakness (silver andmining stocks) it’s often an ominous sign for the entire sector.  In addition,&n...Read More

While geopolitical conflict has keptgold afloat, mining stocks’ weakness signals trouble ahead.  EconomicRecession LoomsWhile risk assets attempt to breakfree of their bearish corrections, gold’s relative outperformance hasthe yellow metal shining bright. Despite that, we’ve booked 11-straightprofitable trades, and our 12th (currently open) remains in the gree...Read More

Gold price rallied this week, and thisgot many heads turning. Rightfully so?Let’s check the details and see whatreally happened.Having said that, let’s take a look atgold’s rally. Gold moved above its April 2023 high.Again.HistoricalPatterns: A Look BackThis is the fourth time that ithappened if we don’t count the tiny early-January attempts.All those moves have been invali...Read More

While geopolitical conflict has keptgold afloat, mining stocks’ weakness signals trouble ahead.  EconomicRecession LoomsWhile risk assets attempt to breakfree of their bearish corrections, gold’s relative outperformance hasthe yellow metal shining bright. Despite that, we’ve booked 11-straightprofitable trades, and our 12th (currently open) remains in the gree...Read More

Gold mining stock charts have not yet confirmed a sustainable rally, and Q3 fundamentals may be a headwindWe have used this daily chart of the gold stock ETF, GDX in written and video updates to keep NFTRH subscribers apprised of the progress of the bounce from the early October low (after previously using the chart to manage the long correction that began with the May double top). Let’s upd...Read More

Crisis, crisis everywhere. But objective, free from the noise of the news, forecasting of commodity prices starts here, with our free Special Report ($155 value). The geopolitical landscape is wracked. War in Ukraine, humanitarian crisis in Syria, and now, what Vox Media on October 15 called the "worst conflict in decades" between Israel and Hamas. For mainstream analysts who use news as the main...Read More

Silver has been a major underperformerin recent months, as the white metal proved no match for higher real yields anda stronger USD Index.With silver gunning for its 2023 lows,the recent sell-off has done severe technical damage. And while the weaknesshas been a boon for our GDXJ ETF short position, silver could enjoy ameaningful bounce in the weeks ahead. Yet, the technicals are much better...Read More

Precious metals markets got hammered earlier this week asinterest rates continued their relentless march higher. The 10-year Treasury note recorded its highest yieldsince 2007. Meanwhile, the average conventional 30-year mortgage rate surged to7.31% -- a level not seen since 2000. Higher rates are putting pressure on housing andfinancial markets. They are also hitting consumers and small businesse...Read More

With the fundamental roadblocks addingup, silver confronts a bearish outlook at nearly every turn.With the FOMC’s hawked-up SEP andPowell’s inflation focus upending several risk assets, rising real interestrates continue to weaken silver’s bull thesis.And with the Fed chief promising more of the same on Sep. 20, higher interest rates and/or a recessionare both bullish f...Read More

Fears of inflation remaining stubbornly high, andinterest rates going higher, rattled financial markets this past week. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve left its benchmarkfunds rate unchanged as expected. However, Fed chairman Jerome Powell left thedoor open for another hike in the near future. He also suggested rates may needto stay higher for longer than previously expected. By Thursday, invest...Read More

(IDEX Online) - The IDEX Polished Price Index dipped very slightly during January (down by 0.27 per cent) following on from a 1.9 per cent rise in December.The change of direction, after a long post-Covid decline, reflects a confusion and uncertainty that seems to pervade the industry at present. The market appeared to be showing some early signs of a recovery as 2023 came to an end. What...Read More

(IDEX Online) - Gem Diamonds saw revenue and average per carat prices down by around a quarter during 2023 amid ongoing "downward pressure" in the rough market.The UK-based miner operates Letseng, in Lesotho, the highest dollar per carat kimberlite diamond mine in the world.It says total sales for the year were $139.4m, down 26 per cent, and the average per carat price was down 24 per cent to $1,3...Read More

(IDEX Online) - US consumers will spend a record $6.4bn on jewelry this Valentine's Day according to a new NRF survey. That's a 14 per cent increase on last year's predicted spend of $5.5bn.Over half the population (53 per cent) say they'll be celebrating, according to an annual survey by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and data insights company Prosper Insights & Anal...Read More