Fundamental analysis versus Elliott wave analysis: the winner for predicting the 9-year long commodity bear market is clear. 95% of traders fail. It's a day-drinking, country-music kind of statistic. Think: "Friends in Sell-Low, Buy-High Places."One article attempts to quantify the reasons, citing: "SCIENTIST DISCOVERED WHY MOST TRADERS LOSE MONEY -- 24 SURPRISING STATISTICS." See number 14:"Inves...Read More

Silverplunged on Tuesday, just as it was likely to afterthe triple reversal that we’ve been writing about, and it was decliningstrongly during Wednesday’s pre-market trading. And then it all changed. Silversoared before the U.S. markets opened and the white metal ended the session inthe green. We definitely saw a silver reversal. But, was it significant and canit be trusted?Wedoubt tha...Read More

This morning in pre-market the Amigos’ futures charts update the macro story……which goes something like this… Copper, the cyclical Amigo (weekly chart) has furthered the intermediate trend line break we noted on October 25th. This is in line with the rally in US and global stock markets and even more so, the global macro reflation theme. It does not look so impressive ye...Read More

Ole Hansen14 hours ago (Nov 11, 2019 10:51 AM GMT)Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.The below summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across 24 commodities futures up until last Tuesd...Read More

As it has done with cobalt, graphite and rare earths, China appears to be locking up the nickel market. Nickel’s top producer, Indonesia, in early September decided to accelerate a scheduled ban on ore export shipments, from 2022 to January 1, 2020. The ban which instead took immediate effect on Oct. 28, is to encourage the building of domestic smelters instead of exporting raw nic...Read More

We wrote a very telling research article on October 24th, 2019.  We never published it because we had other articles scheduled to be published over the next few weeks in the queue and because our subscribers get our trade alerts before the general public. At this point, we are sharing that past article as well as some current research for Natural Gas that should be very interesting to you.Pay...Read More

The second biggest gold mine in Europecould be about to make investors rich.It’s a story that began over 2,000 years ago whenthe Romans dug up $16.8 billion in gold in Romania... Using only hammers andbuckets.But now, a little company with a big dreamis coming to unearth the rest. Using modern technology, they’re hoping to capitalize on anestimated $13.3 billion find.Smart investors ar...Read More

The three-month nickel price on the London Metal Exchange continued to fall over the course of Monday November 11 to end the day's trading down by just under 4% against high turnover, while the rest of the complex similarly closed lower. The nickel futures price closed at $15,565 per tonne on Monday afternoon, its lowest 5pm closing price since August 7. Turnover in nickel was high over the day wi...Read More

Stagnant tin prices could be set to climb after a bridge collapsed on a key route to Alphamin Resources' Bisie tin mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Central Africa.The Mauritius-based mining company confirmed this week that the Maiko Bridge at Lubutu - on a key route to the Bisie tin mine in the Walikale territory of DRC - collapsed on October 30, some 53 kilometers sout...Read More

Seaborne coking coal prices displayed no clear trend on Monday November 11, though some market participants in China have reported an emergence of offers for November-loading cargoes despite it being close to the middle of the month.Fastmarkets indicesPremium hard coking coal, fob DBCT: $134.77 per tonne, up $1.53 per tonnePremium hard coking coal, cfr Jingtang: $145.02 per tonne, down $1.10 per t...Read More

Chinese steelmaker Hebei Jingye Group has agreed to acquire British Steel, including its Scunthorpe steelworks and other assets, the UK government's Official Receiver and the company's administrator, EY, said on Monday November 11. The sale will also include British Steel's shares in TSP Engineering and Redcar Bulk Terminal in the UK, along with FN Steel in the Netherlands and Briti...Read More

The export market for hot-rolled and cold-rolled coil from the Commonwealth of Independent States has improved on a bullish mood among suppliers, which preferred to step back from the market rather than to continue sales at low prices, sources told Fastmarkets on Monday November 11.Fastmarkets' price assessment for steel HRC, export, fob Black Sea, CIS, was $375-385 per tonne on November 11, up fr...Read More

Here are five Fastmarkets MB stories you might have missed on Monday November 11 that are worth another look.Chinese steelmaker Hebei Jingye Group has agreed to acquire British Steel, including its Scunthorpe steelworks and other assets, the UK government's Official Receiver and the company's administrator, EY, said on November 11.Chilean copper production grew by 1.2% year on year in September, a...Read More

Chilean copper production grew by 1.2% year-on-year in September, as higher output from state-owned Codelco offset a drop from Escondida and Collahuasi, the country's copper commission, Cochilco, said on Thursday November 7.Total production reached 483,800 tonnes of copper content during September, up from 478,200 tonnes a year earlier.Output during the January-September period came to 4.24 millio...Read More

Stagnant tin prices could be set to climb after a bridge collapsed on a key route to Alphamin Resources' Bisie tin mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Central Africa.The Mauritius-based mining company confirmed this week that the Maiko Bridge at Lubutu - on a key route to the Bisie tin mine in the Walikale territory of DRC - collapsed on October 30, some 53 kilometers sout...Read More

Miner-smelter Nyrstar has begun the final stages of a planned restart to its Port Pirie lead smelter in Australia, with the first feed in its top submerged lance (TSL) furnace expected later this week, it said on Monday November 11. The smelter will be restarting 13 weeks after the company announced a "forced shutdown" on August 9 caused by an incident at the hearth in the primary smelter that req...Read More

The three-month nickel price on the London Metal Exchange recorded a sharp sell-off during morning trading on Monday November 11 on mounting fears that progress in a US-China trade deal could stall. Concerns that the trade talks are not progressing as smoothly as hoped, with US President Donald Trump saying late last week that he had not agreed to roll back tariffs on imports from China, has dampe...Read More

Concerns that China-United States trade talks are not progressing as smoothly as hoped, with US President Donald Trump saying late last week that he had not agreed to roll back tariffs on imports from China, has dampened sentiment in the metals.That said, US equities went on to brush off the news with markets closing at record highs again on Friday November 8. Gold prices break below support as US...Read More

With the exception of those for tin and zinc, base metals prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mostly lower during the morning trading session on Monday November 11.The subdued performance by the base metals comes after United States President Donald Trump told reporters at the end of last week that China was pushing for the removal of some tariffs as part of an agreement, but he said a "c...Read More

Special bar quality (SBQ) steel prices in the United States moved sideways across cold-finished and hot-rolled grades this month despite higher ferrous scrap prices due to reports of discounting and overall weak demand.Fastmarkets' price assessment for steel bar hot-rolled special bar quality (SBQ) 1-inch round 1000 series (carbon), fob mill US stood at $34 per hundredweight ($680 per ton) on Frid...Read More