The AOCE and WB have moderate overall forecasts for the metals in 2025 inline with IMF forecasts for a decline in economic growth and inflation, although we see the probability of a stagflationary scenario as still reasonably high.Read More

The past year was a difficult one overall for the metals, with the main standouts to the upside being a geopolitical risk-driven gain in gold, a China-driven rise in iron ore and a surge in uranium on broadening global support for nuclear power (Figure 1). A jump in global interest rates to near two-decade highs saw recession fears persist all year, and while one still did not actually eru...Read More

This year the post-global health crisis boom was brought to an end by a surge in inflation to forty-year highs, a major rise in global interest rates in an attempt to curb the rising prices and surging geopolitical risk after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While precious metals held up reasonably well as markets turned to them as a risk hedge, by Q2/22 the higher interest rates put an end t...Read More

Chile is the world leader in copper production, at 28.5% of the total in 2020, and this looks set to continue, with the country having the largest global reserves, at 23.0% of total. It is also the global leader for molybdenum, which is often found along with copper, and is a major lithium player, holding 51.1% of global reserves. Read More

Newfoundland has become a gold exploration hotspot over the past few years, with the sector seeing some of its strongest activity ever. While the province remains a small contributor to Canadian gold production, it has a substantial mineral industry well supported by the government, focused on iron ore, copper and nickel, and the surge in exploration suggests that gold output from the...Read More

Nevada is the core of the U.S. gold output, accounting for by far the majority, at 75.4% on average for the past year. The state looks set to remain a dominant player in U.S. gold, as it accounts for 49% of total U.S. reserves, with Alaska slightly ahead with 51% of reserves, but just 8.6% of current production. The U.S. accounts for 6.1% of global gold output, making Nevada one of the largest gol...Read More

The Golden Triangle in northwestern British Columbia has historically been a major site of Canadian gold production, beginning as early as the mid 1800s. There was a wave of production in the 1990s which cooled as the gold price declined, but larger scale production resumed in 2017, and the area has seen surging exploration interest over the past year, given that the region has some of the largest...Read More

In this report we outline the Quebec gold mining industry, including its major producers, and a survey of many of the junior miners focused on the province. Quebec accounts for 34% of Canadian gold production (second to Ontario, with 44%) and remains a major focus for both producers and junior miners.Read More

Red Lake has been one of the most prolific gold mining districts in Canada and the world, with exploration having started in the 1920s, and production, which began in the 1930s, continuing to the present day. The district is known for the high grade of its gold, its infrastructure, and strong institutional support, given the long history of mining in the area.Read More

"Can I help you, sir?" The young guy behind the counter was very polite."Yes, please," I replied."I'd like a couple of those salmon filets," and I pointed to a tray behind the glass.Salmon filets. Courtesy the Fresh Market store."Absolutely," said the man. "Great choice, by the way," he added.I smiled. "You sound like the server in a restaurant. Whatever you order, they say 'Great choice.' I guess...Read More

'Perhaps there is still time to defeat history.'-Daniel OliverMr. Oliver must be an unreconstructed optimist. An un-mugged Democrat. A man enjoying his first vote...or his second marriage.The history he is referring to is the one we know so well. It is the history of booms and busts...and of great nations laid low by the 'fatal conceit' of their leaders.All bubbles burst.All paper currencies becom...Read More

I've used OpenAI's ChatGPT almost daily since it launched in late 2022.It's been a valuable research assistant, and I also use it to make the images at the top of these letters.But suddenly ChatGPT has major competition. Google just released their latest model, Gemini 3.Gemini 3 has taken a lead on AI benchmarks, a set of tests which grade the performance of models.And Google's new image creation...Read More

Is the Chinese economy collapsing? Or is something worse waiting in the wings? The short answer is that we could be looking at something much worse than a crashing economy. China could be part of a collapse of the global monetary system.We'll begin the analysis with the latest official economic releases from China. These releases showed some of the weakest performance by the Chinese economy since...Read More

Over the past year, I've written no less than 15 newsletters dedicated to silver.To say it's one of my favorite assets is an understatement.The combination of booming industrial usage and rising investor demand has created a perfect storm for poor man's gold.And this unique metal is doing quite well, up 72% year-to-date despite the recent pullback. But don't let that price rise fool you, this bull...Read More

My good friend and host of the No Way Out podcast, Mark McGrath, likes to call me the second-most famous Villanova graduate in Italy. Of course, the most famous one sits on the Throne of St. Peter and has this uncanny penchant for pissing me off.I had high hopes for Papa Leone, as we call him here in Italy. But time and again, from blessing ice blocks to condemning nation-states for enforcing bord...Read More

In 1929, just before the Great Crash, economist Irving Fisher famously said stock prices had reached, “what looks like a permanently high plateau”.Fisher was a raging bull, and his portfolio was leveraged to the hilt. The crash wiped out his entire fortune, and he was forced to borrow from wealthy relatives to pay his IRS bill.It'd be easy to scoff at his arrogance. But Fisher's view w...Read More

Remember Beanie Babies? In the late 1990s, they were all the rage.Tiny stuffed animals which cost less than $1 to manufacture were selling for thousands of dollars at peak.The Princess Diana memorial bear once fetched $500+, and today it sells for around $5. Peanut the Royal Blue Elephant hit $5,000 in 1999, and today a certified mint condition specimen might fetch $50.The BB craze started in 1997...Read More

Ask any locomotive engineer. You definitely want to stop the train too soon versus too late.Or in other words, don't be this guy:Santa Fe locomotive overshoot, Los Angeles, January 1948. Courtesy martinturnbull.com.No question about it; we've had a good year in 2025. Gold, silver, platinum are up. Most other metals as well. Many miners are up, and many have seen spectacular gains. And while I don'...Read More

Since 2008, U.S. stocks have absolutely crushed the rest of the world.The S&P 500 rose 592% over the 17 year period from July 2008 to July 2025. The MSCI world index (excluding the U.S.) was up 140%.And the MSCI emerging markets index was up just 92%.The chart below tells the story:Source: Charlie BilleloIt's been an incredible period of outperformance for American stocks. We've torched Europe...Read More

Is the stock market bubble about to burst?It has seemed that way a few times over the past year, but so far each selloff has proved to be a blip on a relentless climb upwards.But now we're starting to see signs of weakness in the sector that’s driving markets higher: AI/tech.Investors are beginning to digest that there's simply not enough electricity in America to support endless new data ce...Read More

The problem with the busy-bodies is that they are too busy. TV...tablets...TikTok who has time to read the classics, or to think at all?An example: the destruction of the twin towers on 9/11 will bring some "economic good," said celebrity economist Paul Krugman. "Now, all of a sudden we need some new buildings...rebuilding will generate at least some increase in business spending."Holy schmoley....Read More

Alex Rogo had three months to save his factory.The plant manager of Bearington’s struggling manufacturing facility watched helplessly as inventories piled high while shipments ran late.He’d done everything by the book. He maximized local efficiencies, controlled costs, and kept every machine running at full capacity.Yet throughput kept falling. Management’s patience had run out.D...Read More

In the grand pantheon of science mythos, Galileo is the poster child for "the scientist forced to recant by the powers that be." And boy, have TPTB regretted it ever since!But they didn't at the time.The modern analogue isn't an astronomer with a telescope, but a molecular biologist with a model kit. That man, James D. Watson, is someone who cracked one of the great codes of biology (the structure...Read More

The gold price's extreme rise took a break recently. But even a 10% decline hasn't cooled off expectations for its future.That's why we need to use this pullback to add to our gold portfolio.According to the Financial Times, gold bull markets commonly pull back up to 10% in bull markets. And none of the big financial institutions think gold's run is over. Analysts at giant banks like Goldman Sachs...Read More

Regular readers know we are preparing for a major market shift over the next few years.A move out of expensive sectors like big tech and AI, and into hard assets. A rotation out of hype, and into reality.This thesis is centered on the idea that the world has reached a tipping point with debt. Governments worldwide are up to their necks in it.Central banks and political leaders have only a few opti...Read More

It's Veterans' Day, originally called "Armistice Day" to commemorate the end of the Great War (aka World War I) on Nov. 11, 1918. In this regard, it's appropriate to discuss the war. And since this is an investment-oriented letter, we'll address how the U.S. Federal Reserve helped finance it.Below, we'll look at how the 1914-18 conflict reshaped America's system of national finance, and laid found...Read More

After the stellar year we've had in precious metals, a correction was inevitable. Necessary, in fact.And last month, it finally happened.Gold fell about 10% from a high of around $4,400 to $3968.The GDX gold miner ETF slipped from a high of $85 to $68. Almost exactly -20%.Silver fell from around $54 to $47 (-13%), while the SILJ junior silver miner ETF dropped from $27 to $20, a substantial 26% dr...Read More

Did President Autopen just run out of ink?That's a serious question but probably does require some explanation. Recent months have been filled with so-called tell-all books from Biden administration insiders. In trying to boost sales, they write about how Biden's cognitive impairment was a preoccupation around the White House. Staff had to use teleprompters for informal meet-and-greet events. The...Read More

Picture a single country at the center of the world's monetary system.An empire overflowing with unprecedented wealth.Sounds pretty nice. But underneath the shiny surface, all isn't well.These vast riches have discouraged industry at home. The country imports most of its goods.Its elites are living a life of luxury. Building palaces and importing the finest foreign wares.But inflation becomes a pe...Read More