The AOCE and WB have moderate overall forecasts for the metals in 2025 inline with IMF forecasts for a decline in economic growth and inflation, although we see the probability of a stagflationary scenario as still reasonably high.Read More

The past year was a difficult one overall for the metals, with the main standouts to the upside being a geopolitical risk-driven gain in gold, a China-driven rise in iron ore and a surge in uranium on broadening global support for nuclear power (Figure 1). A jump in global interest rates to near two-decade highs saw recession fears persist all year, and while one still did not actually eru...Read More

This year the post-global health crisis boom was brought to an end by a surge in inflation to forty-year highs, a major rise in global interest rates in an attempt to curb the rising prices and surging geopolitical risk after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While precious metals held up reasonably well as markets turned to them as a risk hedge, by Q2/22 the higher interest rates put an end t...Read More

Chile is the world leader in copper production, at 28.5% of the total in 2020, and this looks set to continue, with the country having the largest global reserves, at 23.0% of total. It is also the global leader for molybdenum, which is often found along with copper, and is a major lithium player, holding 51.1% of global reserves. Read More

Newfoundland has become a gold exploration hotspot over the past few years, with the sector seeing some of its strongest activity ever. While the province remains a small contributor to Canadian gold production, it has a substantial mineral industry well supported by the government, focused on iron ore, copper and nickel, and the surge in exploration suggests that gold output from the...Read More

Nevada is the core of the U.S. gold output, accounting for by far the majority, at 75.4% on average for the past year. The state looks set to remain a dominant player in U.S. gold, as it accounts for 49% of total U.S. reserves, with Alaska slightly ahead with 51% of reserves, but just 8.6% of current production. The U.S. accounts for 6.1% of global gold output, making Nevada one of the largest gol...Read More

The Golden Triangle in northwestern British Columbia has historically been a major site of Canadian gold production, beginning as early as the mid 1800s. There was a wave of production in the 1990s which cooled as the gold price declined, but larger scale production resumed in 2017, and the area has seen surging exploration interest over the past year, given that the region has some of the largest...Read More

In this report we outline the Quebec gold mining industry, including its major producers, and a survey of many of the junior miners focused on the province. Quebec accounts for 34% of Canadian gold production (second to Ontario, with 44%) and remains a major focus for both producers and junior miners.Read More

Red Lake has been one of the most prolific gold mining districts in Canada and the world, with exploration having started in the 1920s, and production, which began in the 1930s, continuing to the present day. The district is known for the high grade of its gold, its infrastructure, and strong institutional support, given the long history of mining in the area.Read More

When we use the phrase cracking up, we don't mean an immediate and catastrophic collapse. Instead, we refer to a breakdown in the political, economic and geopolitical spheres that imply a severe weakening in the power of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and perhaps even the fall of the CCP over the course of the next few years. That would be a momentous development by any measure.Of course, such...Read More

I'll never forget the first time I realized public health in America was about to change forever. It wasn't in D.C. or at some think tank it was live, on the airwaves, during a call with Dr. Marty Makary.This is a voice you might recognize from the dark days of COVID a Johns Hopkins cancer surgeon and best-selling author who stood up for truth when the whole country was being told to sit down...Read More

Picture this scenario for me.You’re watching the financial news, and every talking head is telling you the same thing: “Trump loves oil. Solar is dead. Buy energy stocks, but stick to the traditional ones.”Meanwhile, your electricity bill just jumped 10% this month.Your local utility is warning about rolling blackouts this summer because they can’t keep up with demand.And e...Read More

The only good part of being on LinkedIn is seeing the idiotic posts the alleged "intelligentsia" puts up.There are some people who you'd expect to have a brain, but really don't, especially when it comes to numbers!I've long said innumeracy is a greater danger than illiteracy. And boy, does it show sometimes. Take this meme, that's been floating around:It's supposed to be some snarky hot-take on o...Read More

In August of 2019, former NY Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley launched an attack on President Trump.The attack came in the form of an opinion piece in Bloomberg.In it, he argued that Trump's trade war with China threatened to crash the U.S. economy.So Dudley wrote that the Fed should consider punishing Trump for his bad policies.Here's an excerpt from that 2019 Bloomberg editorial by Dudley (...Read More

Here at the Daily Reckoning, we love contrarian investments.Back in February, we highlighted an idea that fits the bill nicely: buying Brazilian stocks.Specifically, we mentioned the iShares Brazil ETF (EWZ), which was yielding around 8% at the time, and Nubank (NU), a fast-growing digital bank.Brazil had been in a slump since its stock market peaked in 2008. The country's stock market is heavily...Read More

Recently, I was traveling but not on one of my typical visits to a mine, or to an exploration or development project, nor to an investment conference. Instead, I gathered first-hand information about how an iconic American company can drive itself into a ditch, figuratively speaking. And I'll address this in just a moment.But first, some backstory...Panorama of returning 1st Brigade, 10th Mountain...Read More

By now, you've all heard about the tragic incident in Florida last week, where illegal immigrant Harjinder Singh pulled an illegal u-turn in the 18-wheeler he was driving.A minivan with 3 people inside was forced to crash into Singh's trailer and everyone aboard was killed instantly.A dash camera recorded the entire crash, and Singh's cold reaction set the internet ablaze. The driver reacted as if...Read More

After four years of unnecessarily confrontational foreign policy under President Biden, Americans elected Donald Trump in part for his promise to put America first at home and overseas. He promised a war-weary America that he would start no new wars and would get us out of the existing ones. Eight months into his second Administration it appears his promise remains to be fulfilled, as his approval...Read More

Stocks are priced at valuations near the 2000 dot-com extremes.Hot tech IPOs like Circle are doubling and tripling on day 1.Home prices have soared to unaffordable levels.Meme coins and meme stocks are back in vogue.Sports-betting is red hot, with the latest trend being 10-leg parlays with a (tiny) chance to pay off 100x+.Trading on margin (leverage) has reached new records.Speculation is the new...Read More

Jerome Powell doesn't like to surprise the markets. That much we know. The man's a lawyer, not a cowboy. He's not Volcker puffing cigars and shoving rates into the stratosphere. He's not Greenspan mumbling gibberish while the markets hang on every syllable. He's not even Bernanke, that academic deer frozen in the headlights of the 2008 crisis.No, Powell is more like a risk-averse corporate counsel...Read More

The largest gold miner ETF (GDX) is up an impressive 63% so far in 2025.Yet strangely, investors in the fund have been selling aggressively. So far this year they've sold $3.5 billion worth of GDX shares on net.We can track this via ETF.com's fund flows tool:Source: ETF.comAs you can see by the red bars on the chart, investors have been steadily selling shares of GDX all year. There have only been...Read More

Around the U.S., new data centers are sprouting up like weeds.These data centers feed fast-growing demand for AI products and services.We have plentiful access to the NVIDIA chips which power cutting-edge AI applications.The bottleneck is now power generation. There's not nearly enough juice to go around.For example, Elon Musk's xAI recently built their massive Colossus data center near Memphis, T...Read More

Let's discuss what happened in Alaska last week when President Donald Trump met with Russin President Vladimir Putin. The encounter was brief, productive and historic, although one might not realize it based on conventional, ill-informed Western media coverage. Unsurprisingly, most Western media botched their coverage, although for many outlets that is exactly their mission.It helps to know what t...Read More

According to the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, prices rose by 2.7 percent over the past year, and by 3.1 percent when the "volatile" food and housing sectors are removed from the calculation.Markets rose following the release of the CPI since the increase in price inflation was not as high as expected. This led to an increase in expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rat...Read More

It's Assumption Day. And it's hot.Every group is entitled to its own fantasies…its vanities and its lunacies. They are condensed in slogan form, easy for the masses to remember.'Free the Holy Land' was popular for generations. 'Make the World Safe for Democracy' fizzled out fast. As did the 'Thousand Year Reich.'Europe has now settled on 'global climate change' as its cause celebre. Its numb...Read More

In the 1990s, Cisco was the hottest stock in the world. It gained a remarkable 89,000% throughout the decade.Cisco shares peaked in March of 2000 at a $550 billion market cap. That year the company made a $2.7 billion profit. That would give CSCO a P/E ratio of around 200x at its peak.The prices investors were willing to pay for tech growth brought the entire stock market to bubbilicious levels. I...Read More

Tomorrow, President Trump will finally meet face-to-face with President Putin.The summit will take place in Anchorage, Alaska, as covered in detail by our friend Byron King earlier this week.President Trump has stated that his primary goal is to reach a ceasefire agreement. If an agreement isn't reached, Trump told reporters that Russia would face "severe consequences". He is likely referring to f...Read More

For decades, the Ivy League has been treated as a sort of financial Olympus an elite club where money flows like vintage Bordeaux and the only financial hardship is deciding which fund manager gets to manage the latest billion-dollar donation.Harvard, Yale, Princeton... the names alone conjure images of investment portfolios so dense they have their own gravitational pullBut here's the inconvenien...Read More

Last week President Trump made a big move in the currency wars.He appointed Stephen Miran, head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to a vacated seat on the Fed's Board of Governors.I'm going to pull together some important threads. I'll also speculate about what Trump's plans for remaking the Fed might mean for international trade, and how Miran can assist.This could translate into a...Read More