The AOCE and WB have moderate overall forecasts for the metals in 2025 inline with IMF forecasts for a decline in economic growth and inflation, although we see the probability of a stagflationary scenario as still reasonably high.Read More

The past year was a difficult one overall for the metals, with the main standouts to the upside being a geopolitical risk-driven gain in gold, a China-driven rise in iron ore and a surge in uranium on broadening global support for nuclear power (Figure 1). A jump in global interest rates to near two-decade highs saw recession fears persist all year, and while one still did not actually eru...Read More

This year the post-global health crisis boom was brought to an end by a surge in inflation to forty-year highs, a major rise in global interest rates in an attempt to curb the rising prices and surging geopolitical risk after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While precious metals held up reasonably well as markets turned to them as a risk hedge, by Q2/22 the higher interest rates put an end t...Read More

Chile is the world leader in copper production, at 28.5% of the total in 2020, and this looks set to continue, with the country having the largest global reserves, at 23.0% of total. It is also the global leader for molybdenum, which is often found along with copper, and is a major lithium player, holding 51.1% of global reserves. Read More

Newfoundland has become a gold exploration hotspot over the past few years, with the sector seeing some of its strongest activity ever. While the province remains a small contributor to Canadian gold production, it has a substantial mineral industry well supported by the government, focused on iron ore, copper and nickel, and the surge in exploration suggests that gold output from the...Read More

Nevada is the core of the U.S. gold output, accounting for by far the majority, at 75.4% on average for the past year. The state looks set to remain a dominant player in U.S. gold, as it accounts for 49% of total U.S. reserves, with Alaska slightly ahead with 51% of reserves, but just 8.6% of current production. The U.S. accounts for 6.1% of global gold output, making Nevada one of the largest gol...Read More

The Golden Triangle in northwestern British Columbia has historically been a major site of Canadian gold production, beginning as early as the mid 1800s. There was a wave of production in the 1990s which cooled as the gold price declined, but larger scale production resumed in 2017, and the area has seen surging exploration interest over the past year, given that the region has some of the largest...Read More

In this report we outline the Quebec gold mining industry, including its major producers, and a survey of many of the junior miners focused on the province. Quebec accounts for 34% of Canadian gold production (second to Ontario, with 44%) and remains a major focus for both producers and junior miners.Read More

Red Lake has been one of the most prolific gold mining districts in Canada and the world, with exploration having started in the 1920s, and production, which began in the 1930s, continuing to the present day. The district is known for the high grade of its gold, its infrastructure, and strong institutional support, given the long history of mining in the area.Read More

In the grand pantheon of science mythos, Galileo is the poster child for "the scientist forced to recant by the powers that be." And boy, have TPTB regretted it ever since!But they didn't at the time.The modern analogue isn't an astronomer with a telescope, but a molecular biologist with a model kit. That man, James D. Watson, is someone who cracked one of the great codes of biology (the structure...Read More

Regular readers know we are preparing for a major market shift over the next few years.A move out of expensive sectors like big tech and AI, and into hard assets. A rotation out of hype, and into reality.This thesis is centered on the idea that the world has reached a tipping point with debt. Governments worldwide are up to their necks in it.Central banks and political leaders have only a few opti...Read More

The gold price's extreme rise took a break recently. But even a 10% decline hasn't cooled off expectations for its future.That's why we need to use this pullback to add to our gold portfolio.According to the Financial Times, gold bull markets commonly pull back up to 10% in bull markets. And none of the big financial institutions think gold's run is over. Analysts at giant banks like Goldman Sachs...Read More

It's Veterans' Day, originally called "Armistice Day" to commemorate the end of the Great War (aka World War I) on Nov. 11, 1918. In this regard, it's appropriate to discuss the war. And since this is an investment-oriented letter, we'll address how the U.S. Federal Reserve helped finance it.Below, we'll look at how the 1914-18 conflict reshaped America's system of national finance, and laid found...Read More

After the stellar year we've had in precious metals, a correction was inevitable. Necessary, in fact.And last month, it finally happened.Gold fell about 10% from a high of around $4,400 to $3968.The GDX gold miner ETF slipped from a high of $85 to $68. Almost exactly -20%.Silver fell from around $54 to $47 (-13%), while the SILJ junior silver miner ETF dropped from $27 to $20, a substantial 26% dr...Read More

Did President Autopen just run out of ink?That's a serious question but probably does require some explanation. Recent months have been filled with so-called tell-all books from Biden administration insiders. In trying to boost sales, they write about how Biden's cognitive impairment was a preoccupation around the White House. Staff had to use teleprompters for informal meet-and-greet events. The...Read More

Picture a single country at the center of the world's monetary system.An empire overflowing with unprecedented wealth.Sounds pretty nice. But underneath the shiny surface, all isn't well.These vast riches have discouraged industry at home. The country imports most of its goods.Its elites are living a life of luxury. Building palaces and importing the finest foreign wares.But inflation becomes a pe...Read More

Yesterday, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang dropped a bombshell. He told the Financial Times, "China is going to win the AI race."Via FT.com:Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang has warned that China will beat the US in the artificial intelligence race, thanks to lower energy costs and looser regulations.In the starkest comments yet from the head of the world's most valuable company, Huang told the FT: "Chi...Read More

Ever feel like the world's gone mad, idiocy reigns, and the wise are mocked? Every day, you say?Well then, welcome! You're living in Desiderius Erasmus's world. Only 500 years later.Erasmus of Rotterdam (1466-1536) was the original intellectual troublemaker the man who used humor, reason, and razor-sharp Latin to mock the stupidity of his age while trying to save it from itself.Born illegitimate...Read More

The Big Short is one of my favorite movies (and books).It's a powerful story of investors who bet against the housing bubble, persevered through adversity, and won big.The story focuses on Michael J. Burry, a small but successful hedge fund manager in California. In the movie, Burry is played by actor Christian Bale. There are others featured in The Big Short who bet against the housing market, bu...Read More

According to data collected by the research firm Statista, 29 percent of Americans cannot afford to take a vacation this year. A vacation is not the only thing Americans are struggling to afford. The failure of wages to keep up with price inflation is why household debt hit a record level of 18.4 trillion dollars this year, with the average household owing more than 100,000 dollars.The Federal Res...Read More

Greetings from New Orleans. I'm here for the 51st annual Investment Conference, formerly called the Gold Conference, founded half a century ago by the late Jim Blanchard. If you own gold, it's because Jim fought tooth and nail in the 1960s and 70s to change U.S. law to allow private ownership.And as you've undoubtedly noticed if you own gold - or if you go to buy some right now - the price is up-u...Read More

NBC News with the latest:AI giant Nvidia becomes the first company worth $5 trillion, powered by the AI frenzyThe value of Nvidia alone is now worth more than the GDP of every country on earth, except for the United States and China, according to World Bank data.The Economist says we are in an "astonishing boom…fueled by optimism about artificial intelligence." That optimism has driven up p/...Read More

A disturbing chart is making waves in the financial world.It's a long-term view of job openings (blue) vs the S&P 500 (black). The dotted line shows when ChatGPT launched in November of 2022.Take a look:Digesting this chart gives me heartburn.As you can see, historically job openings and the stock market have moved in parallel. When the economy was good, both metrics moved up. When it was bad,...Read More

Oil prices are falling, but oil stocks are not. That's a great setup for short sellers and a terrible one for buyers.According to data broker Statista, the breakeven price for most U.S. oil producers is between $61 and $70 per barrel. The current oil price is below that today. That means we are in the pain zone for oil producers.The last time we saw oil prices this low was 2021:Longtime natural re...Read More

Investors call copper "Dr. Copper" because this metal has a PhD in economics.In the modern world, copper is foundational.Electronics, wiring, motors, plumbing, cars, appliances. It's in everything.So most of the time, we can tell a lot about the economy by watching the price of copper.And the price just broke out to a new all-time high above $11,200 per ton.Source: Mining.comBut this isn't purely...Read More

Inquiring minds want to know: How's the "Greatest Political Experiment of Our Age" going? Herewith, an update.Historic… Momentous… Crushing…These are just some of the words missing from the mainstream media's "reporting" of Argentina's midterm election yesterday.Defining… Landslide… and Humiliating were also conspicuously absent from the shame-free establishment bullh...Read More

Bubble-like behavior?A friend is a builder in Washington, specializing in high-end houses."I've never seen anything like it. There's just so much money in Washington. We're doing 15 different projects. Every one of them is spectacular."Money is everywhere. Everything is going up. Gold, for example. CNBC:Gold could reach $10,000 by the end of the decade, says Ed Yardeni.Which is another way we coul...Read More

"A government-run grocery store? What a disaster!""I know! By the way, I made 2x on Intel after the government bought in!"These quotes summarize recent comments I've heard about government interventions in private markets.The first, of course, refers to NYC mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani's plan to open city-run grocery stores. The idea is to eliminate greed and profit from the equation, and give...Read More

Last week, I had dinner with Donald Trump, Jr., and I suspect that at least some readers may be interested. So today, I'll tell you about it.And first, yes... I mean that DJT Jr. (see photo), son of the U.S. President of similar name. And no, I don't mean that we were in the same building at the same time, although that's one way to say it. Nor do I mean that we were even in the same dining room a...Read More