Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities, commodities, or mining equities. All facts, figures, dates, prices, and other information are based on publicly available sources, including the CEO.ca CrashLabs Podcast Episode #16 with Dave Lotan (June 29, 2023) and market data as of April 25, 2026, and are believed to be accurate at the time of writing. However, commodity prices, market conditions, company performance, and economic factors are dynamic and subject to rapid change. Investing in mining stocks involves substantial risk, including the potential for significant loss of principal due to price volatility, operational risks, regulatory changes, and global economic factors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own due diligence, review all relevant regulatory filings (including NI 43-101 technical reports), consult with qualified financial, tax, and legal advisors, and consider their individual risk tolerance, investment objectives, and financial situation before making any investment decisions. No guarantees or assurances of future performance, price appreciation, or achievement of any specific return are implied or expressed. This article complies with SEC regulations regarding forward-looking statements and promotional content. The author and publisher assume no liability for any losses incurred from the use of this information.
Introduction: Dave Lotan’s Prescient Call in June 2023
On June 29, 2023, in Episode #16 of CEO.ca’s CrashLabs podcast, veteran resource investor Dave Lotan made a clear and memorable declaration about the junior mining sector:
“This is a stock pickers’ market.”
At the time, the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) was trading in the $35–$38 range (split-adjusted), gold was hovering around $1,950–$2,000 per ounce, and many junior resource stocks were trading at multi-year lows after a brutal bear market. Sentiment was extremely negative, capital was scarce, and most investors had abandoned the sector.Fast-forward to April 25, 2026: GDXJ has more than tripled, trading above $123. Gold has surged to record highs near $4,800–$4,900 per ounce, and many individual junior gold miners have delivered extraordinary returns. Lotan’s 2023 assessment has proven remarkably accurate: the junior resource sector has indeed been a stock pickers’ market, where careful selection and active investing have significantly outperformed passive index strategies.This retrospective article revisits Dave Lotan’s June 2023 comments, analyzes the performance of junior gold miners since then, and explores the broader lessons on active investing vs passive investing, stock picking vs index funds, and the best strategy in a stock pickers market.
What Dave Lotan Meant by “This Is a Stock Pickers’ Market”
In the 2023 interview, Lotan described a market environment where:
Broad indices (including junior mining ETFs) were not moving meaningfully.
Individual stocks with strong fundamentals, management teams, and high-grade assets were beginning to break out.
Capital was highly selective — only the best projects and teams were attracting funding.
Passive investors (those simply buying ETFs or index funds) were missing the real opportunities, while active stock pickers who did deep fundamental work were finding exceptional value.
Direct quote from Dave Lotan (June 29, 2023):
“This is a stock pickers’ market. You have to do your homework. The easy money has been made in the broad indices. Now it’s about finding the right companies with the right assets, the right management, and the right jurisdiction.”
Lotan emphasized that in such an environment, active stock picking vs ETFs becomes the superior approach because dispersion between winners and losers is extremely wide.
Performance Since June 2023: GDXJ and Individual Juniors
When Lotan made his comment in late June 2023, GDXJ closed the month around $35.66 (split-adjusted). By April 25, 2026, GDXJ has advanced to approximately $123.75 — a gain of roughly 247% in under three years.This impressive move in the junior gold miners ETF masks even greater dispersion at the individual stock level:
Many high-quality Canadian junior gold miners with Tier-1 jurisdiction assets, strong management, and high-grade discoveries have delivered 300–800%+ returns.
Weaker names with poor geology, high dilution, or weak balance sheets have stagnated or declined.
The gap between the best and worst performers has widened dramatically, exactly as Lotan predicted.
This performance gap illustrates the core difference between active vs passive investing returns in a stock pickers market: passive investors in GDXJ have done well, but active stock pickers who focused on quality names have generated significantly higher returns.
Why This Became a Stock Pickers’ Market
Several structural factors created the conditions Lotan identified in 2023:
Bear Market Aftermath: The 2022–early 2023 bear market in resources left many junior miners extremely undervalued, with market capitalizations far below the replacement cost of their assets.
High Interest Rates: Elevated rates made capital expensive, forcing companies to be highly disciplined and investors to be extremely selective.
Commodity Price Recovery: As gold and other metals began their structural bull market, the best projects with low costs and strong fundamentals were the first to attract capital.
Jurisdiction and Management Quality Became Paramount: In a capital-constrained environment, investors rewarded companies with assets in stable jurisdictions (Canada, Australia, Finland) and proven management teams.
Lotan’s insight on stock pickers market meaning:
“In a stock pickers’ market, the dispersion is huge. You have 10% of the stocks doing 80–90% of the performance. The rest go sideways or down. That’s why active stock picking becomes so important.”
Active Investing vs Passive Investing Returns in Resource Markets
The performance of GDXJ versus individual stock selection since June 2023 provides a textbook example of why active investing vs passive investing returns can diverge dramatically in resource sectors:
Passive (GDXJ ETF): Delivered approximately 247% total return.
Active Stock Picking: Top-tier Canadian junior gold miners with strong geology and management have frequently delivered 400–1,000%+ returns over the same period.
Index Funds / Broad ETFs: Many investors who simply bought junior mining ETFs missed the massive outperformance available to those who did deep fundamental work.
This is the essence of a stock pickers market: broad indices move modestly while individual opportunities offer asymmetric upside for those willing to do the work.Best strategy in a stock pickers market:
Deep fundamental analysis of geology, management, share structure, and jurisdiction.
Focus on companies with high-grade resources in Tier-1 jurisdictions.
Strong emphasis on capital efficiency and low dilution.
Patience — the best opportunities often appear during periods of sector apathy.
How to Make Money in a Stock Pickers’ Market
Dave Lotan’s 2023 comments provide a practical roadmap:
Do Your Homework: Spend time understanding the assets, not just the story.
Focus on Quality: Prioritize high-grade deposits, strong management teams, and clean balance sheets.
Be Patient: The best entries often occur when sentiment is negative and capital is scarce.
Avoid Over-Diversification: In a stock pickers’ market, concentrated positions in the very best ideas tend to outperform broad indexing.
Monitor the Macro Backdrop: Gold’s role as a safe haven asset and inflation hedge provides the tailwind for the entire sector.
Can Stock Pickers Beat the Market?
The performance of junior gold miners since June 2023 provides a clear answer: yes, skilled stock pickers can significantly outperform the market and broad ETFs in resource sectors, especially during the transition from bear to bull markets.The key is discipline, deep research, and the ability to identify companies with genuine asymmetric upside rather than chasing hype.
Risks and Balanced Perspective
While stock picking has delivered strong returns in this cycle, it is not without risks. Many juniors still fail, dilution can destroy value, and timing remains difficult. Investors must maintain proper position sizing and diversification even when focusing on high-conviction ideas.
Conclusion: Dave Lotan’s 2023 Call Has Been Validated
Dave Lotan’s June 29, 2023 statement — “This is a stock pickers’ market” — has proven to be one of the most accurate calls of the cycle. The dramatic rise in GDXJ from ~$35–$36 to over $123, combined with even larger gains in the best individual junior gold miners, demonstrates the power of active stock picking vs passive investing returns in resource markets. For investors today, the lesson remains relevant. In an environment where dispersion between winners and losers is wide, careful stock selection — focusing on quality geology, strong management, and Tier-1 jurisdictions — continues to offer the best path to superior returns.As gold maintains its role as a safe haven asset and inflation hedge, and as the commodity supercycle advances, the stock pickers’ market in junior mining is likely to persist. Those who follow Lotan’s disciplined, research-driven approach will be best positioned to capitalize on the opportunities ahead. This article is based on the CEO.ca CrashLabs Podcast Episode #16 with Dave Lotan (June 29, 2023) and publicly available market data as of April 25, 2026. It is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Mining stocks are volatile; conduct your own research and consult professionals.
Author
Ben McGregor authors the Weekly Roundup at CanadianMiningReport.com, providing sharp analysis of the metals and mining sector. With a talent for spotting trends, Ben distills complex market shifts into clear, engaging insights on TSXV junior miners. His weekly updates cover gold, copper, uranium, and more, blending data-driven perspectives with a knack for identifying opportunities. A vital resource for investors, Ben’s work navigates the dynamic junior mining landscape with precision.