Aluminum Leads Base Metals Since War Began - What the Latest Price Action Means for Canadian Mining Investors

Aluminum has surged 14.9% since the Middle East conflict escalated, far outpacing copper (+0.5%) and leaving nickel and zinc in deep oversupply. With LME inventories shifting dramatically and gold holding near $4,880/oz, here's what Canadian-listed miners on the TSX, TSXV, and CSE should watch in the base metals space.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities, commodities, or mining equities. All facts, figures, dates, prices, and other information are based on publicly available sources, including the April 20, 2026 Canadian Mining Report article “Aluminum Leads Metals Since War” and market data as of April 20, 2026, and are believed to be accurate at the time of writing. However, commodity prices, geopolitical developments, inventory levels, and company performance are dynamic and subject to rapid change. Investing in mining stocks involves substantial risk, including the potential for significant loss of principal due to price volatility, operational risks, regulatory changes, and global economic factors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own due diligence, review all relevant regulatory filings (including NI 43-101 technical reports), consult with qualified financial, tax, and legal advisors, and consider their individual risk tolerance, investment objectives, and financial situation before making any investment decisions. No guarantees or assurances of future performance, price appreciation, or achievement of any specific return are implied or expressed. This article complies with SEC regulations regarding forward-looking statements and promotional content. The author and publisher assume no liability for any losses incurred from the use of this information.

Introduction: Base Metals Divergence Since the War Began

The ongoing Middle East conflict has created clear winners and losers among base metals. According to the April 20, 2026 analysis from Canadian Mining Report, aluminum has been the standout performer, rising 14.9% since the war escalated, while copper has remained nearly flat at just +0.5%. Nickel and zinc, meanwhile, continue to face significant oversupply pressures, with inventories rising sharply. This divergence is not random. Supply disruptions tied to the conflict — particularly attacks on smelting capacity in the Middle East and repeated closures or threats to the Strait of Hormuz — have tightened aluminum availability, while copper inventories have actually tripled and nickel/zinc surpluses have worsened. For Canadian investors focused on TSX, TSXV, and CSE-listed mining companies, these shifts have direct implications. Canada is a major player in copper and has growing exposure to critical minerals, while aluminum-related supply chains and energy costs affect many operations. This article breaks down the latest base metals performance, the key drivers, and what it means for Canadian mining stocks in the current environment.

Aluminum’s Strong Performance: Supply Shock in Focus

Aluminum has clearly led base metals since the war began, gaining 14.9%. The primary catalyst has been supply-side pressure from the Middle East conflict. The region accounts for approximately 9% of global aluminum production and 15% of exports. Attacks on smelting capacity have already reduced output, and the market expects this supply reduction to persist for at least a year.LME aluminum inventories have declined 20%, falling from recent highs of 509,000 tonnes to 391,000 tonnes. This tightening has been a major driver of the price rally. Additional factors include China’s output cap, which has nearly been reached. While some Chinese producers are investing in Indonesia to offset domestic limits, the overall global supply picture remains constrained. For Canadian mining investors, this aluminum strength is noteworthy because several TSX/TSXV companies have exposure to aluminum-related projects or benefit indirectly through higher energy and input costs across the sector.

Copper: Nearly Flat but Still Structurally Bullish Long-Term

Copper has been far less impressive since the war began, posting only a modest +0.5% gain. LME copper inventories have tripled since January 2026 lows of 137,000 tonnes, reaching 403,000 tonnes. This inventory build has offset some of the earlier bullish momentum that was driven by expectations of U.S. tariffs and short-term scarcity.However, the longer-term copper supply and demand outlook remains constructive. Global copper demand continues to grow due to electrification, renewable energy infrastructure, data centers, and electric vehicles. New mine supply is limited, with many major projects facing delays or declining grades. Canadian copper mining companies on the TSX and TSXV — particularly those with projects in British Columbia’s Golden Triangle or Quebec — are still well-positioned for the eventual tightening that many analysts expect later in 2026 and into 2027. The near-term inventory overhang has tempered prices, but the structural deficit narrative has not disappeared.

Nickel and Zinc: Oversupply Pressures Dominate

Nickel and zinc have been the clear laggards. Nickel LME inventories have increased six-fold over the past two years, driven by massive capacity additions in Indonesia (largely backed by Chinese investment for stainless steel and battery production). Demand has been weak due to declining Chinese steel production and a slower-than-expected shift in electric vehicle battery chemistry. Zinc inventories have tripled to 115,000 tonnes from 34,000 tonnes in October 2025, with a major surplus expected in 2026 from new Brazilian production and moderate demand tied to steel industry challenges. These oversupply dynamics highlight the importance of project quality and jurisdiction for Canadian-listed base metals companies. Producers or developers with low-cost, high-grade assets in stable jurisdictions are far better positioned to weather periods of surplus than marginal operations elsewhere.

Gold Performance and Mining ETF Strength

While the article focuses on base metals, gold is also referenced for context. Gold has declined approximately 7% since the war began but is currently trading near US$4,880/oz and has posted its third consecutive weekly gain. Mining ETFs have shown impressive relative strength: GDX is up 56.4% and the copper/iron ore-focused PICK ETF is up 54.8% since September 2025, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 (up 10.9%), U.S. tech, and other sectors.This performance underscores that quality mining equities — particularly those with exposure to gold and copper — have been rewarded even amid broader market volatility driven by the conflict and rising U.S. CPI inflation (now at 3.3% in March 2026, up from 2.4% in January).

Implications for Canadian Mining Investors on the TSX, TSXV, and CSE

Canadian-listed mining companies are uniquely exposed to these base metals dynamics:

• Copper exposure remains strategically important. Companies with advanced projects in British Columbia or Quebec benefit from stable jurisdictions and proximity to North American markets, making them attractive in a friend-shoring environment.

• Aluminum-related cost pressures affect many open-pit operations across Canada due to higher energy and input costs. Companies with access to low-cost hydroelectric power (common in Quebec and parts of BC) have a relative advantage.

• Nickel and zinc companies face near-term headwinds from oversupply, but high-grade or specialty projects may still offer selective opportunities.

• Broader mining ETF strength (GDX and PICK) highlights that investors are rewarding quality operators with strong fundamentals and exposure to the metals that are performing best.

The record exploration spending in British Columbia (driven heavily by copper) and continued interest in critical minerals further support the view that Canadian jurisdictions are gaining a strategic premium.

Forward-Looking Outlook

The base metals divergence since the war began reflects short-term supply shocks (favoring aluminum) and longer-term structural surpluses (hurting nickel and zinc). Copper sits in the middle — temporarily weighed down by inventory builds but still structurally bullish due to the energy transition and global electrification trends.For Canadian mining investors, the current environment rewards:

• Quality copper developers and producers with district-scale potential in Tier-1 Canadian districts.

• Companies with low energy-intensity operations or access to renewable power.

• Diversified or gold-focused producers that can benefit from relative strength in precious metals.

The conflict-driven volatility has created both risks and opportunities. Investors who focus on strong balance sheets, low all-in sustaining costs, clean share structures, and clear catalysts are best positioned to navigate the base metals landscape in 2026 and beyond. This article is based on the April 20, 2026 Canadian Mining Report analysis and public market data. It is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Base metals and mining stocks are volatile; conduct your own research and consult professionals.