Gold and Silver Near a Major Turning Point, Sprott Money's Bob Thompson Says

In a late-July discussion with Craig Hemke, portfolio manager Bob Thompson argues that extreme pessimism, washed-out technical indicators, and resilient price action above key support levels suggest gold and silver may be approaching an important inflection point.

Precious metals markets have spent much of 2026 in a corrective phase after the strong advances that carried gold and silver to multi-year highs earlier in the year. By late July, sentiment among many investors had grown distinctly cautious. Into that environment, Bob Thompson, senior portfolio manager at Raymond James in Vancouver, joined Craig Hemke on Sprott Money’s monthly wrap-up to make a clear case: gold and silver appear to be approaching a major turning point.Thompson’s argument rests less on precise price targets than on the character of the current market. Extreme pessimism, washed-out technical readings, and the ability of prices to hold critical support despite persistent headwinds are, in his view, the classic ingredients of a durable bottom.

Peak Pessimism as a Contrarian Signal

One of Thompson’s central observations is that markets frequently turn when sentiment reaches an extreme. He pointed to technical measures showing the relative-strength index on certain precious-metals instruments at multi-year lows and strength readings on mining equities compressed to levels rarely seen. Investor enthusiasm, which had been elevated during the earlier rally, has largely drained away.“The least amount of people in the market make the most amount of money,” Thompson noted, referencing the historical tendency for major advances to begin when participation is thin and skepticism is widespread. In his framework, the six months of corrective action and rising pessimism that followed the early-2026 peaks have created conditions closer to a generational opportunity than to the start of a prolonged bear market. This view does not require ignoring negative news. Thompson’s practical advice is to observe the news flow closely while refusing to be dominated by it. The intensity of the negativity itself can become a useful data point.

Technical Resilience Above Key Levels

On the chart, Thompson highlighted that gold has continued to respect a broad support zone in the $3,800–$4,000 area even as hawkish policy signals and a firm dollar periodically weighed on the metal. The ability to absorb adverse headlines without breaking down decisively is, in his reading, constructive. Silver’s behavior has been more volatile, consistent with its smaller market and higher beta. After breaking above long-term resistance near $50 earlier in the cycle, the metal retraced and tested lower levels. Thompson suggested that a final shakeout toward the mid-$40s remained possible as weak hands exited, but he viewed the broader structure as still consistent with a long-term bull market. Once the corrective phase ends, he expects silver’s recovery to be sharper — potentially V-shaped — precisely because the swings in sentiment are more exaggerated.Both metals, in his assessment, are closer to the end of their corrective processes than to the beginning of a new major decline.

Catalysts That Could Drive the Next Move

Thompson identified several potential catalysts that could help shift the narrative. One is the possibility that the most hawkish phase of monetary policy and dollar strength has already been priced. Another is the potential for capital to rotate out of crowded growth and technology themes into under-owned real assets. Mining stocks still represent a tiny fraction of major equity indices, leaving substantial room for institutional reallocation if performance differentials begin to favor the sector. He also framed gold in particular as portfolio insurance against monetary uncertainty, elevated government debt, and the possibility of future financial-system stress. That defensive characteristic becomes more valuable when other asset classes appear extended.

Gold Versus Silver

Thompson draws a distinction between the two metals that many long-term precious-metals investors will recognize. Gold functions primarily as monetary insurance and a store of value. Silver carries both monetary and industrial characteristics, which amplifies its upside in a bull market but also increases its volatility and its sensitivity to shifts in risk appetite. Because silver’s market is smaller, flows that are modest relative to gold can produce outsized percentage moves. Historically this has allowed silver to outperform gold during the strongest phases of precious-metals advances. Thompson’s comments leave room for that pattern to reassert itself once the current corrective phase concludes, while emphasizing that silver demands greater tolerance for drawdowns.

Implications for Investors and Equities

For those considering whether to buy gold or buy silver, Thompson’s message is that current levels — with gold holding above $4,000 and silver retaining historically significant support — offer a reasonable entry zone for long-term holders who can withstand continued volatility. He does not claim to be able to pick the exact bottom. Instead he argues that the risk-reward for patient capital has improved as pessimism has peaked.The same logic extends to the equity side. Gold mining stocks and silver mining stocks have underperformed the metals themselves during the correction, a common pattern. Thompson noted that the junior and senior mining complex contains opportunities for substantial returns when the sector eventually turns, citing historical examples of individual names that delivered multi-bagger performance even in difficult broader markets. Quality selection remains essential; broad exposure through vehicles such as gold ETFs or silver equity funds can provide participation, but individual stock picking has historically driven the largest gains. Canadian mining stocks, junior gold miners, and junior silver miners form a significant part of the opportunity set for investors focused on this theme. The sector’s small overall weighting in global equity markets means that even modest inflows can move prices meaningfully once sentiment shifts.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy Gold and Silver?

Thompson’s answer is implicitly affirmative for investors with a multi-year horizon and the temperament to hold through volatility. He sees the current environment as one in which the corrective phase has largely run its course and the ingredients for the next advance are assembling. That does not eliminate the possibility of further short-term weakness, particularly in silver. It does suggest that the balance of probabilities, in his view, has tilted toward the next major up-leg rather than continued decline. Will gold prices rise again? Thompson’s analysis of sentiment and technical structure points to yes over a meaningful time frame. Can silver outperform gold? History and the metal’s torque characteristics suggest it can during the stronger phases of a precious-metals bull market, provided investors can tolerate the ride.

Conclusion

Bob Thompson’s late-July assessment offers a clear, sentiment-driven framework for the current gold and silver markets. Extreme pessimism, washed-out technical indicators, and the resilience of prices above critical support levels are the signals he is watching. In his experience, these are the conditions from which durable advances are born. Whether the turning point arrives in the coming weeks or requires a final shakeout, the message for long-term precious-metals investors is one of measured opportunity rather than capitulation. Gold continues to serve its role as monetary insurance. Silver retains its dual character and its capacity for outsized moves. And the mining equities that produce both metals remain, in Thompson’s view, among the more neglected corners of the resource market — precisely the environment in which patient capital has historically been rewarded.

Disclaimer: 

 This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold gold, silver, or any related securities, or a prediction of future prices. Precious metals and mining equities involve substantial risk of loss and high volatility. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professional advisors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.