Kitco’s Neils Christensen reported the tape first. Gold had slipped under $4,300 support. TD Securities did not call a top.
Ryan McKay, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, said the next leg can still print above $5,000 an ounce into 2027. He said the metal has held through Federal Reserve hikes. He said investor and central-bank appetite is growing again.
That is one theme. The old rule—higher real yields kill gold—is not the ruling rule. If that break holds, a dip under a broken support line is a flow story, not a funeral.
What McKay actually said
Rising rates should hurt a metal that pays no coupon. McKay said the link is already broken. TD points to geopolitics, de-dollarization, fiscal worry, debasement fear, and sticky inflation as the stronger bid.
Markets, he said, have priced three more Fed hikes. That creates an uneven bet. If the Fed delivers, gold has already lived with the idea. If the Fed misses that bar, McKay said upside can speed up.
The note is not only a policy call. McKay said discretionary macro funds have been rebuilding net-long gold since June. That buying helped through early summer. It stayed firmer than the rate scare implied. CTA and momentum books, in the same shop’s wider comments, had been selling into the September FOMC. Cleaner systematic positioning, if discretionary buying returns, can add a second push.
Positioning is not crowded on his numbers. Discretionary length is still about 30 percent below the 2022 peak and 50 percent below estimated 2016 highs. Room to add is the point. It is also a warning. Light books can still dump on a shock.
The floor he is counting on
Western ETF demand is the visible pipe. TD estimates global gold-backed exchange-traded funds took in about 6.3 million ounces since July. McKay called that early, not finished, even with a tighter Fed.
Official buyers are the other pipe. Using customs data, trade flows, and inventory gaps, TD puts central-bank purchases near 70 tonnes a month on a three-month average. McKay said those buyers can get more opportunistic on dips at or under current prices.
China is the loudest official-plus-private stack. TD said Chinese non-monetary gold imports are running at a record pace this year. The People’s Bank of China has reported purchases for 22 straight months. TD thinks actual official buying is larger than the published line. Chinese gold ETFs have seen persistent inflows. Net positions among the largest traders on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are near the highest since TD began that series in 2017.
None of that is a promise that $4,300 holds tomorrow. It is why McKay treats the slide as temporary if those pipes stay open.
What this is not
It is not Bart Melek’s June forecast cut. That earlier TD note trimmed second-half 2026 averages and still lifted a 2027 path. This Kitco piece is McKay’s September flow argument. Keep the names straight. McKay is the strategist on this call. Christensen is the reporter.
A bank target above $5,000 into 2027 can fail if real yields rip, if ETF metal leaves, or if China stops absorbing. Higher rates can still bite if the “broken link” heals. Miners torque more than bullion on both sides of that bet.
The opportunity
One theme. If gold can rise with hikes because official and long-term investment demand is not finished, then weakness under $4,300 is a positioning gap, not proof the bull run is over.
Watch three tells. Do global gold ETF holdings keep rising after the next Fed meeting? Does the People’s Bank of China keep the purchase streak? Does discretionary length stay well below old peaks while the metal holds a higher low?
Physical metal and the better gold producers are the slow way to sit in that gap. A $5,000 print is TD’s 2027 path. The work is surviving the rate tape until the flows McKay cited show up in the next month of data, not in a slogan.
Disclaimer
Based on Kitco News reporting by Neils Christensen of comments from Ryan McKay, Senior Commodity Strategist at TD Securities, dated September 23, 2026. Forecasts are opinions. Gold and gold stocks are volatile. This is not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell gold, ETFs, or mining shares. Do your own work.