How the US-Iran War Could Impact Metals Prices: Near-Term, Mid-Term, and Long-Term Outlook

From Safe-Haven Surge to Supply-Chain Strain: How the US-Iran Conflict Is Reshaping Near-, Mid- and Long-Term Metals Price Trajectories

As of March 9, 2026, the escalating US-Iran conflict—now in its 10th day—has injected unprecedented volatility into global commodity markets, with oil prices surging to levels not seen since October 2023. Goldman's commodities desk, in a March 8, 2026 note, warned of Brent crude potentially exceeding $100 next week if no de-escalation signals emerge, with risks skewed toward "demand destruction" levels if Strait of Hormuz flows remain depressed throughout March. This 17 million barrels per day supply hit—17 times larger than Russia's 2022 peak loss—has broader implications for metals, as energy costs feed through to mining operations, transportation, and industrial demand.

While the immediate focus is on oil's 50%+ surge from December 2025 lows (WTI now above $90), metals markets are responding with a mix of safe-haven buying (gold, silver) and industrial demand fears (copper, aluminum, zinc). Drawing from expert analyses—including Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Citi, and Commerzbank—the following outlines potential price trajectories across near-term (weeks to months), mid-term (months to 1 year), and long-term (beyond 1 year) horizons. Forecasts assume baseline scenarios of partial disruptions (10–50% Strait flows halted for 1–3 months), with upside risks if conflict prolongs or spreads.

Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Commodity prices are highly volatile and influenced by multiple factors; past performance is no guarantee of future results. All figures are as of March 9, 2026, unless noted.

Near-Term (Weeks to Months): Safe-Haven Surge Amid Supply Fears

In the immediate aftermath, metals prices are likely to reflect heightened risk premiums, with gold and silver benefiting from safe-haven flows while industrial metals face energy-cost pressures.

• Gold: Prices have risen 2.3% since the conflict began on February 28, 2026, trading near $5,246/oz as of March 1, 2026. Goldman Sachs' scenarios tie gold upside to oil: A 1-month partial closure (oil +$4/bbl) could lift gold 5–8%; full closure (oil +$15/bbl) 12–18%. J.P. Morgan remains bullish, targeting $6,300 by end-2026, with conflict adding "geopolitical instability" premium. Citi sees potential for $5,500 or new highs if tensions persist. Experts like Fawad Razaqzada at City Index forecast $5,500 short-term, possibly $5,600+ all-time high. Rationale: War boosts haven demand, as in the 1990 Gulf War (gold +15%).

• Silver: More volatile than gold, silver plunged 9.15% to $80.72/oz on March 3, 2026, after hitting highs. J.P. Morgan forecasts $81 average for 2026, but war could push to $100+ if industrial demand holds amid inflation. Commerzbank's Thu Lan Nguyen attributes drops to "inflationary risks" delaying rate cuts. Outlook: 3–8% upside if oil stabilizes, but could crash further if recession fears mount.

• Platinum Group Metals (PGMs): Platinum fell 7.5% to $2,131.30/oz, palladium 4.1% to $1,694.75 on March 3, 2026. Nasda q reports PGMs down on economic fallout fears. Short-term: 5–10% declines if war drags growth, but haven flows could cap losses (platinum's gold ratio at historical lows).

• Copper: Fell 2.3% to $12,804/ton on March 3, 2026. Citi sees potential $4,000/ton bull case if disruptions prolong. UBS raised forecasts $500/ton, to $15,000 by end-March 2027. Near-term: 5–10% upside on supply risks, but recession fears could cap at $13,000.

• Aluminum: Rose 1.7% to $3,194.50/ton on March 3, 2026. Middle East (9% global output) disruptions could justify $3,600/ton (1-month loss) or $4,000 bull case (Citi). Goldman: 1-month full loss = $3,600/ton. StoneX: Europe (20% import dependency) faces highest risk, premiums to elevate. Near-term: 10–15% gains on freight/insurance spikes.

• Zinc/Steel: Zinc -0.51%, lead -0.67% on March 3, 2026 (SHFE). Iran 3% global iron ore; disruptions could hike steel costs (Kallanish). Near-term: 5–8% upside on energy costs, but demand slowdown caps.

Overall, near-term upside skewed to safe-havens (gold +10–20%, silver +5–15%) and energy-sensitive metals (aluminum +10–20%), per J.P. Morgan and Citi.

Mid-Term (Months to 1 Year): Inflation vs. Growth Trade-Off

If conflict persists 1–3 months (Goldman's baseline), inflation from $100+ oil could boost haven metals but hurt industrials.

• Gold/Silver: J.P. Morgan targets gold $6,300 end-2026, with war adding premium. Commerzbank: Inflation delays cuts, capping gold; but prolonged war = new highs. Fitch: Gold $5,600 unless de-escalation. Silver to $100 if industrial holds (Livemint). Mid-term: 15–30% gains if inflation persists, per WGC Gulf War parallels.

• PGMs: Platinum/palladium down on growth fears (Nasdaq). Mid-term: 10–15% declines if recession, but rebound if auto demand holds.

• Copper: UBS $15,000/ton end-March 2027; Citi $4,000 if prolonged. Investing.com: Downside to $12,000 on inflation shock. Mid-term: Flat to -5% if growth slows.

• Aluminum: Citi $4,000 bull case; Goldman $3,600 1-month. StoneX: Europe premiums elevate; China protected short-term. Mid-term: 15–25% gains if disruptions >1 month.

• Zinc/Steel: Energy costs hike steelmaking; mid-term +5–10% if prolonged (Yayan, Kallanish). Eurometal: Higher costs for Gulf exporters.

Allianz: 0.5pp higher inflation if oil $70–80; 1pp if $100+. Mid-term upside for havens, pressure on industrials.

Long-Term (Beyond 1 Year): Recession Risks vs. Diversification Push

If war resolves within months (Seeking Alpha de-escalation view), metals stabilize; prolonged (Allianz 3+ months) could trigger recession, hurting industrials but supporting gold.

• Gold/Silver: J.P. Morgan $6,300 end-2026; prolonged = $10,000 potential (Bruggeman). Long-term: 20–50% gains on uncertainty (Natixis 15% escalation rally).

• PGMs: Auto slowdown hurts; long-term -10–20%.

• Copper: Investing.com stagflation caps; UBS $15,000 end-2027 if supply tightens. Long-term: Flat if recession, +20% if diversification.

• Aluminum: StoneX: Europe premiums persist; Citi $4,000 if prolonged. Long-term: 20–30% if supply fragmented.

• Zinc/Steel: Sunsirs: 1.16M tons/month export loss if prolonged; long-term +10–15% costs.

Chatham House: Limited GDP impact if short; emerging economies vulnerable to high energy. Polaris: War inflationary, hurting metals demand long-term.

In summary, near-term haven gains, mid-term inflation boosts, long-term bifurcation: havens resilient, industrials recession-vulnerable. Investors should monitor de-escalation signals for reversal.