By Ben McGregor | November 5, 2026
Ivanhoe Mines cut its 2027 copper production forecast for the Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo for the second time this year. The company now expects to produce 300,000 to 350,000 tonnes of copper next year. That is down from the previous range of 380,000 to 420,000 tonnes. The midpoint reduction is 75,000 tonnes. The earlier target stood at 500,000 to 540,000 tonnes before a more cautious mine plan emerged in March. Ivanhoe also raised its 2027 cash cost guidance. These updates came after markets closed on Tuesday.
What production and cost changes did Ivanhoe announce?
Ivanhoe raised its 2027 cash cost (C1) guidance to $2.50 to $3.00 per pound from $2.10 to $2.50. The company cited prolonged high diesel prices, lower ore grades and reduced production. Robert Friedland, Ivanhoe’s founder and co-chairman, said in the statement: “The revised production and cost guidance over the short term reflects a disciplined approach to the ongoing turnaround at Kamoa-Kakula, prioritizing operational stability, mining flexibility and the sustainable recovery of annualized copper production to approximately 500,000 tonnes.” The company lowered the expected steady-state annual production capacity of Kamoa-Kakula’s existing Phase 1, 2 and 3 concentrators to 400,000 to 450,000 tonnes. It plans to introduce shallow open-pit mining alongside underground operations.
Why does the Kamoa-Kakula update matter for copper mining stocks?
The downgrade highlights the difficulty of restoring major copper operations even as miners race to bring new supply to market. TD Cowen analyst Craig Hutchison wrote in a note on Tuesday: “The path back to about 500,000 tonnes per year has become longer, more capital intensive and more dependent on future execution.” He downgraded Ivanhoe to hold from buy and cut his target price to C$9 from C$14. Kamoa-Kakula produced 76,401 tonnes of copper in saleable products in the third quarter, up from 64,328 tonnes in the preceding three months. Full-year 2026 output is expected to reach approximately 290,000 tonnes. The company reduced the upper end of its 2026 capital spending forecast by $200 million, deferring that expenditure to 2027. Next year’s spending guidance now stands at $950 million to $1.15 billion, excluding an estimated $100 million to $200 million for open-pit pre-stripping.
What is the longer-term supply outlook for the mine?
Ivanhoe plans to begin stripping waste rock from two high-grade starter pits in the first quarter of 2027. First ore is expected in the third quarter. Production mining on the eastern side of Kakula is now expected to restart in late March 2028 rather than late 2027. The company plans to begin detailed engineering for a Phase 4 concentrator expansion in the first quarter of 2027. The expansion aims to lift annual copper production capacity to approximately 500,000 tonnes. It has not yet received project approval. Ivanhoe estimates construction would take 18 to 24 months after approval. An updated life-of-mine plan is scheduled for March 2027. Copper prices fell 2.1% to $14,034 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange on Tuesday, the lowest level since mid-August.
What to watch next
- March 2027: Ivanhoe’s updated life-of-mine plan for Kamoa-Kakula.
- First quarter 2027: Start of waste stripping on the high-grade starter pits and detailed engineering for Phase 4.
- Late March 2028: Targeted restart of production mining on the eastern side of Kakula.
- Further updates on 2027 cash costs and production as open-pit pre-stripping advances.
- Broader copper price reaction to major mine delays and new project financing elsewhere, such as Hudbay’s C$49.8 million lead investment in Pecoy Copper.
A dated risk is the further delay in the eastern Kakula restart from late 2027 to late March 2028, which lengthens the path back to higher production rates. Execution risk remains elevated until the open-pit and underground recovery steps are demonstrated.
This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Canadian Mining Report and its authors may hold positions in securities mentioned.
Sources
- Ivanhoe Mines statement and production update, November 4, 2026
- Robert Friedland, founder and co-chairman of Ivanhoe Mines, statement
- Craig Hutchison, TD Cowen analyst note, November 4, 2026
- London Metal Exchange copper price data, November 4, 2026
- Coverage of Hudbay Minerals investment in Pecoy Copper
