By Ben McGregor
Educational content only, not investment advice. Mining stocks are high risk.
In an interview with Adam Taggart of Thoughtful Money released around October 18, 2026, demographer Neil Howe described three main threats that Fourth Turnings often bring. Spot gold closed near $3,995.81 per troy ounce on Friday, October 23, 2026, according to GoldPrice.com. Howe, co-author of The Fourth Turning, said the current cycle shows financial crash, political collapse, and great-power conflict as visible risks, and he outlined practical steps for personal finances if markets face severe disruption.
A Fourth Turning is the crisis phase of a roughly 80-year generational cycle in which institutions weaken and a new order emerges, according to the framework Howe developed with William Strauss. In the interview Howe stated: “We laid out in the fourth turning three main threats, right, uh that fourth turnings often bring. And certainly this one, you can just see it’s right on the table, right? Uh one is financial crash, the other is political collapse and the other is great power conflict.” He has finished a new manuscript tentatively titled “How to Prepare for the End of the World as We Know It.” The book focuses on the growing probability of these threats, the real-world effects on daily life, and practical steps for families and finances rather than pure historical theory. Howe emphasized that the goal is agency. He said people are already anxious and that preparation can help even if the worst outcomes do not arrive.
Howe described high equity valuations as a concern. He referenced the Shiller CAPE ratio, a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings measure that averages earnings over ten years, sitting in the 40s. Historically such levels have been followed by low or negative real returns over the following decade. He noted that long periods of zero real returns have occurred in the past, including after World War II, from 1929, during the 1970s stagflation, and from 2000 through the Global Financial Crisis. In a crisis, he said, gains and losses tend to be socialized. “In a real crisis when a lot of people are suffering, um, gains and losses get socialized. That’s just a fact.” He pointed to World War II, when the federal government owned more than half the capital of manufacturing companies by the end of the war through cost-plus contracts and direct capital infusions. He also described financial repression, the practice of keeping interest rates below the rate of inflation so that the real burden of debt falls on savers and bondholders. Howe said his fund is not long fixed-income securities for this reason.
Howe serves as portfolio manager of the ATFT ETF, described as a multi-strategy fund. He said the first priority is protecting against large drawdowns through cash reserves, trend-following strategies, and tail hedges such as far out-of-the-money puts. The second priority is inflation protection. “We are not long fixed income securities. If anything, we’re occasionally short and uh and instead what we do to balance out the equity part is not fixed income. We are in commodity futures and precious metals.” He noted that commodity futures have a strong historical record over the past century and a half and have outperformed government bonds, particularly when inflation rises. Precious metals are included as part of that allocation. Spot gold closed near $3,995.81 per troy ounce on Friday, October 23, 2026. Howe’s comments place commodities and precious metals in the context of a period when traditional fixed-income holdings face both inflation risk and potential financial repression.
Howe’s framework treats precious metals and commodities as tools for balancing portfolios during periods of elevated crisis risk rather than as pure speculative vehicles. The three threats he lists can coincide, which raises the possibility that equity drawdowns, higher inflation, and disruptions to normal market functioning occur together. In such conditions, assets that do not depend on continuous government or corporate cash flows can behave differently from bonds or growth stocks. Mining companies produce the physical metals that central banks and investors have continued to accumulate. Howe did not name specific miners, but the historical pattern he described of government directing capital toward strategic production during total-war conditions has previously increased the importance of resource industries. Investors who track official gold holdings, commodity price trends, and the relative valuation of mining equities can monitor whether the conditions Howe outlined remain in place. The metal’s price on Friday, October 23, 2026, stood near $3,995.81 per troy ounce.
The Federal Reserve meets on October 27-28, 2026. Any signal on the path of rates will affect real yields and the relative appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold. The next World Gold Council data on central-bank purchases will show whether official demand continued in recent months. Quarterly production and cost reports from major gold and base-metal producers will indicate how company margins respond if metal prices stay near current levels or move higher. Any further public discussion of financial repression, higher defense spending, or government involvement in strategic industries would provide additional context for the socialization of risks that Howe described.
Adam Taggart of Thoughtful Money interviewed demographer Neil Howe, co-author of The Fourth Turning, in an episode released around October 18, 2026. Howe discussed his new book on practical preparation for the three main Fourth Turning threats.
Howe said Fourth Turnings often bring financial crash, political collapse, and great-power conflict. He noted that these risks are visible on the table in the current cycle.
Howe, who manages the ATFT ETF, said the fund is not long fixed-income securities. Instead it holds commodity futures and precious metals to balance equities and protect against inflation.
Author
Ben McGregor authors the Weekly Roundup at CanadianMiningReport.com, providing sharp analysis of the metals and mining sector. With a talent for spotting trends, Ben distills complex market shifts into clear, engaging insights on TSXV junior miners. His weekly updates cover gold, copper, uranium, and more, blending data-driven perspectives with a knack for identifying opportunities. A vital resource for investors, Ben’s work navigates the dynamic junior mining landscape with precision.