Project Vault and the TSX: Which Stocks Should Be on Your Radar?

Trump's $12B Critical Minerals Stockpile (Feb 2026) Targets China Rare Earth Dominance - Top TSX Mining Stocks in Rare Earths, Cobalt, and Lithium Poised for Supply Chain Security Gains

In the wake of escalating geopolitical tensions and supply chain vulnerabilities, the U.S. government's launch of Project Vault on February 2, 2026, marks a pivotal shift in the US critical minerals strategy. This $12 billion initiative, comprising a $10 billion loan from the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) and nearly $2 billion in private-sector investment, establishes the U.S. Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve to stockpile all 60 minerals on the U.S. Geological Survey's 2025 Critical Minerals List. The program aims to buffer American industries against disruptions, particularly from China rare earth dominance, where Beijing controls approximately 60% of global rare earth mining and over 90% of refining capacity.

For Canadian investors, Project Vault underscores opportunities in TSX mining stocks, as Canada emerges as a key ally in diversifying North American supply chain security. With vast reserves of critical minerals like rare earths, cobalt, and lithium, and stable jurisdictions, Canadian producers are well-positioned to supply the U.S. reserve through bilateral frameworks and initiatives like the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE), announced alongside Project Vault. This article explores stocks to watch 2026, focusing on Canadian rare earth stocks, cobalt stocks Canada, and lithium stocks TSX that could benefit from heightened demand and U.S. partnerships.

Understanding Project Vault's Role in Countering China Rare Earth Dominance

Project Vault is designed to mitigate risks from foreign dependencies, especially China's control over critical minerals processing. As of 2024, the U.S. was 100% net-import reliant for 12 critical minerals and over 50% reliant for another 29, with China dominating streams for materials like rare earths, cobalt, and lithium. The initiative allows U.S. companies to secure minerals at fixed prices, reducing volatility and incentivizing allied production.

Complementing this, the U.S. hosted the Critical Minerals Ministerial on February 4, 2026, with 55 countries, leading to bilateral agreements with 11 nations and proposals for a preferential trade bloc with adjustable tariffs and price floors to exclude China. An executive order on January 15, 2026, further directs negotiations for secure supplies of processed critical minerals, with potential trade remedies if deals falter.

Canada's alignment with these efforts—through its own Critical Minerals Strategy and participation in the ministerial—positions TSX mining stocks as prime beneficiaries. As U.S. demand surges for non-Chinese sources, Canadian firms with advanced projects could secure offtake agreements, financing, and market re-ratings.

Rare Earth Stocks TSX: Diversifying Away from China

Rare earth elements (REEs) are a focal point, given China's 60% mining and 90%+ refining dominance, which has led to export restrictions and supply shocks. Project Vault prioritizes the 17 REEs, creating opportunities for rare earth stocks TSX.

• Neo Performance Materials (TSX: NEO): A leader in rare earth processing with a facility in Estonia and Canadian headquarters. Market cap approximately CA$1.2 billion as of February 6, 2026. Neo's focus on high-purity magnets for EVs and wind turbines aligns with U.S. needs, making it a top mining stock to buy for supply chain security.

• Energy Fuels (TSX: EFR): Expanding into rare earths alongside uranium, with capabilities in oxides, metals, and alloys. One of the largest integrated REE producers outside China, with a proposed acquisition of Australian Strategic Materials announced in 2025. Shares surged over 53% in January 2026, yet remain undervalued for long-term growth.

• Avalon Advanced Materials (TSX: AVL): Developing the Nechalacho rare earth project in the Northwest Territories, with a focus on heavy REEs critical for defense and tech. As a Canadian rare earth stock, it stands to gain from U.S. stockpiling.

These rare earth stocks TSX offer exposure to diversified, Western-aligned supply, with potential for U.S. funding ties.

Cobalt Stocks Canada: Addressing Concentrated Risks

Cobalt, vital for EV batteries, faces risks from the Democratic Republic of Congo's 70-75% production share, much controlled by Chinese firms. Project Vault's emphasis on diversified sources boosts cobalt stocks Canada.

• Talon Metals (TSX: TLO): Year-to-date gain of 629.41% as of January 2026, with a market cap of C$725.17 million. The Tamarack nickel-copper-cobalt project in Minnesota (joint venture with Rio Tinto) provides North American supply, ideal for U.S. alliances.

• Fortune Minerals (TSX: FT): Advancing the NICO cobalt-gold-bismuth-copper project in the Northwest Territories. Shares traded at C$0.06 as of February 14, 2026. With a focus on ethical sourcing, it's a stock to watch 2026 for cobalt diversification.

• Sherritt International (TSX: S): A major nickel-cobalt producer with operations in Canada and Cuba. As one of Canada's top cobalt players, it benefits from U.S. efforts to reduce Chinese reliance.

These cobalt stocks Canada could see enhanced offtake and investment as Project Vault prioritizes stable supplies.

Lithium Stocks TSX: Fueling the EV Boom

Lithium demand surges with electrification, but China's 60-65% refining dominance poses risks. Lithium stocks TSX are primed for growth via North American integration.

• Lithium Americas (TSX: LAC): Market cap over C$800 million as of February 13, 2026. The Thacker Pass project in Nevada is North America's largest lithium resource, directly supporting U.S. strategy.

• E3 Lithium (TSX-V: ETL): Advancing the Clearwater project in Alberta with a pre-feasibility net present value of US$3.7 billion. Its brine resource exceeds 21 million tons LCE, positioning it as a key supplier.

• Rock Tech Lithium (TSX-V: RCK): Shares at C$0.96 as of February 13, 2026. Developing hard-rock lithium in Canada and Germany, with converter plans for EV supply chains.

These lithium stocks TSX align with U.S. goals for secure battery materials.

Investment Considerations and Outlook

While Project Vault enhances prospects for these mining stocks to buy, risks include commodity volatility, permitting delays, and execution challenges. Diversify across producers with strong balance sheets and U.S.-aligned projects. As stocks to watch 2026, they offer upside from supply chain security tailwinds.

In conclusion, Project Vault catalyzes a North American minerals renaissance, making TSX mining stocks in rare earths, cobalt, and lithium compelling for investors eyeing geopolitical resilience.

Stay informed, 

CanadianMiningReport.com 

P.S. For expert picks on Canadian critical minerals opportunities and strategies to capitalize on Project Vault, visit TheWealthyMiner.com. Unlock insights tailored for building wealth in the resources sector.