Daniel Rodriguez put a clean marker on the chart. The CEO and director of Mercado Minerals Ltd. (CSE: MERC) says silver has finally found a floor after losing roughly half its value from the January record. He expects the next large move to be higher. He said so in a mid-September conversation that also walked through what his team has been doing in Mexico: a finished 25-hole program at Copalito in Sinaloa, more veins than the first maps showed, a longer strike, and new ground in Durango.
That is a operator’s silver price forecast tied to work in the ground. It is also a useful frame for anyone asking which silver mining stocks could offer the most upside if a silver rebound arrives. The metal near $64 is not the metal that printed near $121 earlier this year. The gap is the whole debate.
This article does not tell you to buy shares. It sets Rodriguez’s call next to the Fed week, the supply story, and a simple screen for silver miners — producers first, then developers and explorers such as Mercado.
The Call, in Plain Terms
Rodriguez’s case has two parts, and both are worth hearing in full.
The first part is the silver market outlook. 2026 opened with a spike that looked like a squeeze. Public recaps put the high near $121. By mid-September spot silver was living in the low-to-mid $64s. Friday, September 11, settled near $64.39 after a violent Thursday and a partial bounce. Monday’s tape still leaned on $63 as support and $68 to $70 as the roof of the recent range. A cut of that size from the high is the “crash” he is answering. His view is that the excess has been paid for and that the silver price outlook 2026 now tilts up from here.
The second part is execution. At Copalito, Mercado reports that drilling increased the number of principal veins from six to eight and stretched known strike from eight kilometres to 11. The company has previously reported early holes with notable silver grades over mineable widths, including a first-hole interval the firm put out as 256 grams per tonne silver over 6.5 metres. New projects in Durango and early work at Zamora are the next layer. Sinaloa security is part of the operating file, as it is for every company that works that belt.
Readers should treat drill results as company-reported geology, not as a reserve. A longer vein field is a real step. It is not a cash-flow statement. The constructive reading is simple. If silver is entering a silver price rebound, a junior that just added scale on a known epithermal system is in a better seat than a junior that has not drilled.
Why the Metal Can Still Work From $64
Silver is both money and wiring. That dual life is why it runs hotter than gold and why it falls harder when the Federal Reserve scares the board.
This week the Fed is the near switch. The September 16 decision comes with hike odds near 90% after August CPI. The 10-year yield is near 5%. Oil is firm. Non-yielding metal gets sold in that mix. A hawkish statement can test $63 and even $60. A softer statement can squeeze the range back toward $68 and $70. Either print can happen before any long silver bull market thesis has time to speak.
The longer silver investment case does not live on Wednesday. It lives on mine supply that cannot jump quickly because most silver is a by-product of lead, zinc, copper, and gold. It lives on industrial silver demand from electronics, vehicles, and solar — with the honest caveat that panel makers keep trying to use fewer ounces per watt. It lives on investment demand that can add or subtract more metal in a quarter than a new shaft can add in a year.
A silver price prediction that ignores the Fed this week is incomplete. A silver outlook that ignores the deficit-and-by-product stack is also incomplete. Rodriguez is betting the stack outlasts the week. That is a reasonable research stance. It is not a guarantee.
Where Upside in Stocks Actually Comes From
If silver climbs, silver mining companies do not all climb the same way.
Large producers can show operating leverage. Costs that sit well below $64 mean extra dollars fall toward earnings. That is why names in the SIL universe can rise two or three times the metal in a strong month and fall as fast when yields spike. Pan American Silver, First Majestic Silver, Endeavour Silver, Fortuna, and Hecla are the names most Canadian accounts already know. Wheaton Precious Metals is a streamer with silver and gold. MAG Silver has long been discussed as a quality-asset story tied to a high-grade Mexican system. Aya Gold & Silver is often framed as a growth producer. None of those lines is a rating.
Mid-tier names with a build or a ramp can offer more percentage torque if the plant works. They also offer more execution risk.
Explorers offer the steepest curve. They do not sell much silver today. They sell the option that a deposit gets bigger while the metal recovers. Mercado sits in that group. A finished 25-hole program that grows vein count and strike is exactly the kind of work that benefits if generalists return to silver stocks. It is also the kind of work that still needs more metres, more metallurgy, and more money. Upside and unfinished business are the same sentence.
A Screen for “Most Upside” That Stays Honest
Ask five questions of every name, including the one whose CEO is making the rebound case.
How much of revenue or in-situ value is actually silver? Many “silver” stocks are gold mines with a credit.
What is the cost and the balance sheet at $64? Cash and a funded plan beat a hope that the next raise is cheap.
Are the ounces in a current technical report? Resources are not reserves. Reserves need a study.
Can you explain the country? Mexico is still the primary-silver heartland. It comes with permit and security files that belong in the model, not in a footnote.
Who will buy the stock if the metal turns? Funds buy liquidity first. Juniors move later and farther — when they move.
Canadian silver stocks that pass the first four tests and also have room to grow ounces are the usual shortlist people research after a washout. Explorers that just posted more strike and more veins belong on a watch list for the fifth test. That is a constructive place to put Copalito. It is not a shortcut around the tests.
How Mercado Fits the Watch List
Mercado is a small Canadian silver explorer with its flagship work at Copalito and a wider Mexican pipeline. The 2026 drill season, as the company describes it, did what early programs are supposed to do. It made the system larger on a map. Six principal veins became eight. Eight kilometres became 11. That is the sort of step that keeps a project alive when silver is under pressure and makes it interesting when silver steadies.
Durango ground and Zamora give the story more than one target. One-asset juniors live or die on a single fence of holes. A second district is optionality. It is also more walking and more cost. The right reading is measured optimism: more shots on goal, still early.
If Rodriguez is right on the metal, the financing climate for Mexican silver explorers improves. That is how junior upside shows up in the real world. Not as a theoretical NAV at $120 silver. As the ability to keep drilling without crushing the share count. Readers should still model dilution. They should also note that a team that just completed a 25-hole program is not sitting on a slide deck alone.
People Also Ask
Should investors buy silver mining stocks? That depends on time, size, and whether you want metal or leverage. Silver mining stocks 2026 can outpace a silver rally if costs are real and the Fed does not keep tightening the screw. They can lag gold stocks if industrial demand wobbles and yields stay high. Explorers can multiply or sit still. This publication does not instruct a purchase. It says a rebound thesis is a reason to build a list and read technical reports, not a reason to buy the open on a headline.
Physical silver and liquid metal ETFs remain the cleanest line for people who only want the price. Stocks are a second decision. Mixing them because a CEO is constructive is how the second decision swallows the first.
What to Watch Through the Fed
Wednesday’s statement and dots. $63 on a close. ETF flows in silver after August’s huge gold-fund month. Any company news that turns metres into a resource update. For Mercado specifically, the market will look for the next technical summary that puts the new veins and the new strike into a single, current report.
A silver price rebound that holds above the recent range would lift the whole complex. The names with fresh metres and a clear silver split would likely be among the first juniors people reopen. That is the modest, positive case. It still waits on the metal and on the work.
Conclusion
Rodriguez is constructive on silver after a drawdown that matches the January-to-September tape. His company used the weak tape to drill, and the drill enlarged the map. That combination is why Copalito belongs in a research pile of silver investment opportunities 2026.
Producers give you cash flow if $64 holds. Explorers give you torque if the rebound he expects shows up. Rank them by ounces, cost, cash, and country. Leave room for the Fed to spoil a week. Leave room for the metal to prove him right over a quarter. Neither room requires a leap. Both require a file.
Disclaimer
This article is for information only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell silver, Mercado Minerals Ltd., or any other security. Company exploration results are as reported by the issuers and should be read with current technical reports. Mineral resources are not mineral reserves and do not have demonstrated economic viability unless stated otherwise. Silver and mining shares are volatile and can result in loss. Speak with a licensed adviser. The author and publisher accept no liability for actions taken on this article. Canadian Mining Report may have commercial relationships with companies mentioned.