Tavi Costa at the Rule Symposium: Why Gold and Copper Miners Are Outperforming Amid the Pullback and Why the Real Opportunity Lies Ahead

Azeria Capital CEO Tavi Costa sees the current gold pullback as a healthy sentiment reset, with mining equities already showing relative strength and copper positioned for a potentially explosive move once the bottoming process completes.

CEO of Azeria Capital Tavi Costa argues that the current gold correction is largely a sentiment and positioning reset, with mining stocks already showing relative strength, while copper is setting up for a potentially explosive move once the bottoming process completes.

Boca Raton, Florida — July 2026

At the 2026 Rule Investment Symposium, Tavi Costa, CEO of Azeria Capital, offered a clear-eyed assessment of the metals markets during a period of heightened volatility. While acknowledging the sharp pullback in gold prices — which briefly dipped below $4,000 — Costa maintained that the core bullish thesis remains intact. He described the recent decline as primarily a function of positioning rather than any fundamental deterioration in the outlook for precious metals or industrial commodities.

Gold: Oversold and Supported by Smart Money Flows

Costa noted that gold has reached some of its most oversold conditions since the 2008 financial crisis when measured by the speed and magnitude of the recent selloff. He pointed to several constructive signals beneath the surface price action. Mining equities, both producers and explorers, have been outperforming gold on a relative basis during the decline. In Costa’s view, this divergence is a positive development, indicating that institutional capital continues to flow into the sector rather than fleeing it. He described this as “smart money” allocating to the mining industry and staying invested — a key requirement for the long-term sustainability of the bull market. While he stopped short of declaring a definitive bottom, Costa believes the worst of the correction is likely behind us. He highlighted collapsing flows into silver ETFs (down approximately 55% over 100 days) as evidence of capitulation, alongside weak sentiment readings. Volatility is expected to persist in the near term as large institutions manage liquidity, but he sees the current environment as part of a healthy bottoming process.

The Dollar Surprise and the Case for Eventual Devaluation

One of the more surprising elements of the recent market action, according to Costa, has been the strength in the U.S. dollar (as measured by the DXY) since the onset of tensions related to Iran. He does not view the recent breakout in the dollar index as structurally meaningful, noting that it has occurred over a relatively short time horizon. Costa has been negative on the dollar since late 2024 and expects a reversal. He argues that sustaining the current dollar-centric system will ultimately require devaluation, given the overvaluation of U.S. assets. In his assessment, a strong dollar is incompatible with the scale of fiscal and monetary imbalances that have built up over time.

Inflation: Real vs. Reported, and the Path for the Fed

Costa drew an important distinction between “real” inflation — the rising cost of goods and services felt by consumers — and government-reported inflation figures. While market-based measures of inflation expectations (such as breakeven rates) have collapsed across various time horizons, he believes actual costs continue to rise. On the Federal Reserve, Costa is skeptical of aggressive rate hikes. He also sees little chance of an open increase in the inflation target under new Chair Kevin Warsh. Instead, he views a change in the methodology used to calculate inflation as the most probable path. Such a shift could allow the Fed to justify rate cuts within the next 6 to 12 months while maintaining credibility.

U.S. Fiscal and Monetary Credibility: A Defining Challenge

In a recent post on X, Costa described restoring fiscal and monetary discipline as one of the central macro themes of the next decade for the United States. He sees a low probability that this will be achieved through conventional means and believes the more likely outcome is an attempt to “inflate our way out” of the imbalances.He highlighted the declining credibility of the U.S. Treasury market as a critical issue, noting that foreign holders are not aggressively selling but are simply failing to keep pace with new issuance. Costa suggested that serious efforts to restore credibility would likely involve increasing gold holdings to back the monetary system — something he believes may already be occurring quietly, given the impracticality of announcing large-scale purchases in advance.

Silver: Volatility as Opportunity

On silver, Costa emphasized that bottoms are a process rather than a single event. While technical support exists around $50, he cautioned against waiting for a perfect entry point, noting that silver has a history of not respecting such levels cleanly. He maintains buy orders around the $50 level to capture potential sharp moves lower during periods of overnight volatility. Longer term, Costa believes silver has the potential to reach triple-digit prices within the next three years, though he is less focused on near-term targets such as $100 in 2026.

Copper: The Asymmetric Setup

Costa remains particularly constructive on copper. He noted that copper has shown relative strength during the broader metals pullback, with both the copper-to-gold and copper-to-silver ratios rising. Copper mining equities have also held up well compared to gold producers. He sees copper as having a strong asymmetric risk-reward profile for a significant upside move once the bottoming process in metals becomes clearer. Drawing parallels to previous breakouts in gold and silver, Costa believes copper could deliver an explosive move higher when sentiment shifts.

Portfolio Positioning: Gradual Accumulation in Precious Metals

Costa described his current personal portfolio as one of the most heavily weighted toward precious metals in his investing career. He took profits in energy positions around the time of the Iran-related developments and has since redeployed capital into gold, silver, and copper. His approach emphasizes discipline: maintaining cash reserves, avoiding leverage, and gradually topping up positions on weakness to reach target allocation sizes. He continues to add to holdings incrementally as new capital becomes available rather than deploying large lump sums at once.

The Road Ahead

Tavi Costa’s outlook reflects a blend of patience and conviction. While near-term volatility in gold, silver, and copper is expected, he sees the current correction as creating better entry points within a still-intact structural bull market for hard assets and the companies that produce them. For mining stock investors, his comments on the relative strength of mining equities during the gold pullback and the potential for copper to lead the next leg higher will likely resonate. The combination of oversold conditions, resilient equity flows, and improving fundamentals in key metals points to a constructive setup as the bottoming process unfolds.