The End of the Imperial Game: How Trump's Challenge to Globalism Could Reshape Global Metals and Mining Markets

As the old system of perpetual geopolitical conflict, central bank dominance, and resource extraction for financial elites faces an existential challenge, metals markets may move from speculative volatility toward more stable, production-driven fundamentals creating both risks and opportunities for miners worldwide.

For decades, commodity markets have operated within a framework shaped by geopolitical maneuvering, financial speculation, and the strategic use of resources as tools of control. According to political commentator Susan Kokinda of Promethean Action, this framework is not a modern invention but the direct descendant of the 19th-century British Empire’s “Great Game” — a system in which nations were treated as chess pieces, wars were instruments of economic leverage, and control over critical resources like oil served to maintain the dominance of imperial financial elites centered in London and its allied institutions. In a wide-ranging interview, Kokinda argues that Donald Trump’s foreign and economic policies represent a fundamental break from this model. By seeking to remove flashpoints like Iran from the geopolitical chessboard without pursuing regime-change destruction, by targeting the financial flows that sustain cartels and narco-terrorism, and by prioritizing domestic manufacturing and productive economic growth, Trump is challenging the very architecture that has long influenced commodity pricing and mining investment. If this challenge succeeds in shifting the world toward sovereign nations focused on real economic development rather than extraction and speculation, the effects on global metals and mining markets could be profound and lasting.

From Geopolitical Chessboard to Sovereign Development

Kokinda describes the imperial system as one that profits from keeping nations in conflict. Control over choke points — such as the Strait of Hormuz — allowed elites to manipulate oil prices, create economic chaos, and sustain a central banking model that serves financial interests over national ones. Wars, sanctions, and perpetual instability were features, not bugs, of this arrangement. Trump’s approach to Iran, she argues, aims to end this dynamic. By seeking a deal that removes Iran as a perpetual source of disruption without reducing the country to rubble, the administration is attempting to create space for normal economic relations. A Middle East no longer constantly on the brink of explosion would allow nations to pursue mutually beneficial trade and development rather than being forced into zero-sum geopolitical games. For metals and mining, the implications are significant. Much of the volatility in commodity prices over recent decades has stemmed from geopolitical risk premiums layered on top of physical supply and demand. If the “Great Game” recedes, those artificial premiums could compress. At the same time, a world of sovereign nations pursuing genuine industrial development would generate sustained, organic demand for industrial metals — copper for electrification and infrastructure, steel and aluminum for manufacturing, and a broad suite of critical minerals for advanced technologies.This shift would move markets away from headline-driven spikes and toward fundamentals rooted in productive investment.

De-Dollarization, Gold, and the Monetary Backdrop

One visible manifestation of the eroding imperial system is the rising status of gold in central bank reserves. Kokinda notes that gold has surpassed U.S. Treasuries as the top reserve asset for many central banks. This is not merely a technical shift; it reflects a broader loss of confidence in a dollar-centric financial order maintained by the very institutions that have long dominated global finance. In a multipolar world where nations prioritize sovereignty and physical economic growth over financial speculation, demand for gold and other monetary metals as neutral stores of value is likely to remain structurally elevated. Central banks in emerging economies, no longer content to hold reserves primarily in assets controlled by the old imperial system, have already accelerated purchases. Should Trump’s vision of sovereign development gain traction globally, this trend could accelerate further. For gold mining companies, particularly those with high-quality assets in stable jurisdictions, this environment could support stronger long-term margins even if near-term price volatility persists. However, it would also reward operational efficiency and cost discipline over pure leverage to metal prices.

Industrial Revival and Demand for Base and Critical Metals

Perhaps the most direct impact on mining markets would come from the revival of productive manufacturing. Kokinda emphasizes that Trump’s economic vision — echoed in statements by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent — prioritizes production over consumption. The goal is to rebuild a middle class where a single blue-collar income can support a family, reversing decades of deindustrialization. Such a revival would require substantial investment in physical infrastructure, energy systems, transportation networks, and advanced manufacturing. Copper, in particular, would see sustained demand growth from grid modernization, data centers, electric vehicles, and industrial expansion. Steel, aluminum, nickel, and a range of specialty metals would benefit from reshoring and new industrial capacity. Unlike the speculative supercycle narratives of recent years, this demand would be anchored in real capital investment rather than financial flows or temporary policy incentives. Mining companies capable of delivering reliable, low-cost supply into this environment would be well positioned. Those reliant on high commodity prices sustained by geopolitical tension or monetary distortion might face greater challenges. Canada, with its rich endowment of critical minerals and established mining sector, could play a significant role in supplying this industrial resurgence — provided regulatory and infrastructure hurdles are addressed.

Supply-Side Realignment and Reduced Artificial Constraints

The imperial system historically influenced not only demand but also supply through sanctions, conflicts, and control over key jurisdictions. By reducing the use of resources as geopolitical weapons, a post-Great Game world could unlock previously constrained supply. Nations previously treated as chess pieces — including major resource holders in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America — might pursue more independent development of their mining sectors. This could increase global supply over time, exerting downward pressure on prices for some commodities even as demand grows from industrial revival. At the same time, the removal of cartel-linked financial flows and narco-influenced instability in key regions could improve the operating environment for legitimate mining investment. Kokinda highlights Trump’s focus on going after the bankers and money launderers behind cartels as a key differentiator from previous administrations. A cleaner financial system would reduce one source of distortion in commodity markets.

Risks and Uncertainties in the Transition

Any transition of this magnitude carries risks. The imperial financial elites and their institutional allies have powerful incentives to resist the erosion of their influence. Kokinda notes the historical pattern of targeting leaders who championed the “American System” of productive economics — from Lincoln and McKinley to Kennedy and, she argues, through attempts on Trump himself. Markets could experience heightened volatility during periods when the old system attempts to reassert control through financial pressure, information operations, or other means. Commodity prices might see sharp but temporary swings as narratives clash with physical realities. Additionally, the shift toward sovereign development is not guaranteed to be smooth or rapid. Institutional inertia, regulatory hurdles, and the time required to rebuild industrial capacity mean that demand growth could lag in some sectors. Mining companies will need to navigate a period of transition where old volatility drivers fade before new, more stable demand patterns fully emerge.

A New Paradigm for Mining Investment

If Susan Kokinda’s analysis proves correct, the coming years could mark a transition in metals and mining markets from a regime dominated by geopolitical engineering and financial speculation toward one grounded in physical economic growth and sovereign decision-making. For investors and industry participants, this would reward a different set of skills and priorities: deep understanding of real supply chains and industrial demand, focus on operational excellence and cost leadership, and the ability to identify projects aligned with genuine economic development rather than narrative-driven capital flows. Gold and monetary metals may continue to benefit from de-dollarization and the search for neutral reserves. Industrial metals could see more durable demand tied to manufacturing revival. Overall, markets may become less prone to extreme geopolitical spikes but more sensitive to genuine progress — or setbacks — in global industrial capacity. The end of the Great Game would not eliminate competition or cyclicality in mining. It would, however, change the rules by which that competition is conducted — shifting the advantage toward those who can deliver real resources into a world increasingly organized around productive capacity rather than financial extraction.Whether this transition fully materializes remains to be seen. But the stakes, as Kokinda frames them, extend far beyond quarterly earnings or spot prices. They touch on the fundamental question of whether the global economy will continue to serve a narrow financial elite or begin to serve the productive potential of nations and their people.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or commodities. All statements regarding geopolitical trends, economic systems, commodity markets, and investment outcomes are forward-looking and involve significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied due to factors including policy changes, geopolitical events, technological developments, and market conditions. Mining and commodity investments involve substantial risk of loss. Investors should conduct their own thorough due diligence, review all public filings and disclosures, and consult qualified financial, legal, and tax advisors before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.