Tyler Durden’s note this morning put the point in the headline. Cannot wait for new mines. Almonty Industries is tapping Spanish mine waste to get tungsten out while traditional projects are still in line for a permit.
That line is not poetry. It is the market’s new rule.
China still accounts for about four-fifths of mined tungsten. The rest of the world is a set of small bars on the same chart. When Beijing tightened export controls in 2025, Western defence and toolmakers stopped treating that pie chart as trivia. Tungsten is hard. It takes heat. It sits in munitions, cutting tools, and some electronics. You do not swap it for a press release.
Almonty’s week is a case study in how capital now hunts time, not just grade.
What Closed in Spain
On Thursday the company said it had signed a long-term, take-or-pay supply deal with Wolfram Bergbau und Hütten AG, a Sandvik AB unit in Austria. The feed is not a new pit. It is tailings at Los Santos, an open-pit scheelite skarn about 50 kilometres south of Salamanca. The mine has sat on care and maintenance since February 2020.
The contract covers a minimum of about 1,720 tonnes of contained tungsten trioxide recovered by retreating that waste. Sandvik’s side includes a conditional, one-time $3 million payment for the offtake rights. Pricing is index-linked, with a floor, according to chief executive Lewis Black. The customer also shares some of the cost of bringing the plant back.
Almonty’s own words matter. The agreement is meant to deliver concentrate in notably less time than building a traditional mine. For Wolfram, it is documented European-origin feed for a refinery and powder plant at St. Martin im Sulmtal. For Almonty, it is a buyer and a cheque before the restart is finished.
Tailings are not high-grade ore. Mining.com noted the waste is leaner than fresh rock. Prices and the hunger for non-Chinese units have made the lean pile worth running. Tests, the company says, have lifted recoveries. That claim will be proven in tonnes, not in a deck.
What Closed in Rwanda Days Earlier
Monday’s file was Africa. Rwanda is the largest tungsten producer on that continent. A binding deal gives the government a 25% stake in Almonty Rwanda. Almonty keeps 75%. Kigali contributes the Shyorongi exploration block — about 32 square kilometres in Rulindo District — and a processing licence.
The near-term plan is not a greenfield dream. Buy ore, pre-concentrate, and panning tailings from existing licence holders, including small operators. Export or upgrade while a plant is built. Park a mobile unit near tailings dams so not every kilo has to travel on day one. The U.S. State Department introduction under a 2025 U.S.–Rwanda framework is part of the politics. Traceability is the product as much as the metal.
Read the two deals together. Spain is old European waste with a Swedish buyer. Rwanda is African current output plus a state partner. Neither path waits for a decade of new shafts.
Why the Clock Is the Asset
Almonty’s crown asset remains Sangdong in South Korea. The company says processing began mid-year and that Phase II aims at 1.2 million tonnes of tungsten ore in 2027. An oxide plant in Korea is planned at 4,000 tonnes of capacity, then 6,000. Portugal’s Panasqueira is the other operating lever. In July, Almonty said it expanded a pact with Pennsylvania-based Global Tungsten & Powders: 21 years, contracted volumes up about 40%, pricing up about 6.3%. That is a U.S. industrial and defence door.
The company talks about being the leading Western producer after Sangdong Phase II and a Panasqueira extension, as early as 2027. That is a target, not a census. China does not vanish because a Montana-listed firm books offtake.
What does change is who can deliver first. Durden’s piece, and Almonty’s own slides, lean on a U.S. rearmament restock after stockpiles were drawn down. From January 2027, tighter U.S. defence rules on non-Western tungsten are set to bite. Processors want paper that says the ore did not come from the wrong map. Miners who already have a plant, a tailings pile, or a state partner get the first call. Explorers with a pretty drill fence get the second.
Resource nationalism is the other squeeze. The same weeks brought U.S. scrap restrictions, a U.K. mine funding story, a Zimbabwe export ban, and Vietnam weighing curbs. When more governments sit on metal, the unencumbered tonne gets a scarcity premium. That premium is why waste in Spain is a deal and not a cleanup footnote.
The Stock Is Not the Metal
Almonty shares had a wild year. The ZeroHedge clip put the range from about $8.28 to almost $25. A premarket pop on the Sandvik news is not a thesis. One later note said the stock had already given back a chunk of the week on valuation. Bloomberg-tracked analysts, in that roundup, showed nine buy ratings and an average 12-month target near $25.90. Those are other people’s numbers. They move. A sell note sat on the same table.
A take-or-pay contract is better than a handshake. It is still conditional on a plant restart, recoveries, and a customer that remains solvent. Rwanda’s small-scale feed has to be gathered, traced, and shipped. Sangdong has to hit the Phase II rate. None of that is in the $3 million cheque.
What This Means If You Follow Canadian Rock
Canada talks critical minerals every week. Tungsten is on the list. The lesson from Los Santos is rude and useful. The West will pay for metal that can move before a new environmental assessment finishes. Tailings, brownfields, and existing licences beat a perfect PEA that starts production in 2032.
That does not make every junior a winner. It sorts the pile. Companies with permitted waste, an offtake, and a plant have a product. Companies with a story and a winter drill program have an option. Options die in a squeeze. Product gets bid.
Europe wants non-Chinese feed for hard-metal shops. The United States wants a defence chain it can audit. China still pours most of the tonnes. Until that share breaks, every Western restart — Spain, Korea, Portugal, Rwanda — is a race against a calendar, not against a brochure.
Almonty is running that race by treating waste as inventory. Judge it on concentrate shipped, not on who called it a supercycle first.
Disclaimer
Based on Almonty’s Sept. 14, 2026 Rwanda agreement, its Sept. 17, 2026 Sandvik/Wolfram offtake release, contemporaneous Mining.com, Bloomberg, and Dow Jones coverage, and a Sept. 17 ZeroHedge summary. China market-share figures are industry estimates. Analyst targets are third-party views, not this publication’s. Almonty securities are volatile. This is not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock.