Educational content only, not investment advice. Mining stocks are high risk.
By Ben McGregor
Sunday, November 8, 2026
Gold spent the week ending November 6 recovering from a one-year low. Reuters' Friday update put spot gold at US$4,074.36 an ounce at 10:54 a.m. Vancouver time, PST. That was down 0.3% on the day but up 5.2% for the week. A dated price like this is separate from any gold price forecast for 2026, and it says little by itself about the Fed or the miners.
Two other sets of papers came out the same week. After a strong US jobs report on Friday, traders raised the odds of a December Federal Reserve rate hike. Two Canadian gold stocks also filed quarterly results: B2Gold (TSX: BTO) on November 4 and IAMGOLD (TSX: IMG) on November 5.
Each one measures a different thing: the gold price is a market reading at one moment, and the Fed odds are traders' bets on one meeting. The miners' results show what their mines earned and spent from July through September.
What did gold's price recovery measure this week?
Reuters filed its update for US closing hours on November 6. Its time stamp was 1:54 p.m. Eastern time, which is 10:54 a.m. Vancouver time, PST, since clocks fell back on November 1.
Spot gold means metal priced for delivery right away, and at that time it stood at US$4,074.36. Earlier in the session it had fallen more than 1% to a low of US$4,033.29.
A futures contract is an exchange deal to buy or sell gold in a set month. December gold futures settled 0.9% lower at US$4,074.90. A settlement is the exchange's official end-of-day price for that contract, so it is a close for December futures only. Reuters gave no final spot close, and this article treats the spot figure as a dated reading.
The gold price recovery shows up against the low: Reuters said gold had dropped to a one-year low of US$3,869.85 on October 30. Friday's reading was about US$205 above that low.
Reuters also put the weekly gain at 5.2%, on track for gold's best week since August. That is the week's gold price rally in one number, as measured at that hour.
Friday itself was a down day, and Reuters linked the dip to the jobs data, which lifted the US dollar 0.7% and pushed 10-year Treasury yields higher. Treasury yields are the interest rates the US government pays when it borrows. A stronger dollar makes gold cost more for buyers who pay in other currencies, Reuters noted.
One trader quoted by Reuters called Friday a test of the week's rally. Reuters also reported that lower prices drew retail buyers in India ahead of the Diwali festival. On oil, Reuters said Brent crude was on track for a sharp weekly drop on expectations of de-escalation in the US-Iran war.
For more on how the low formed, see CMR's earlier report on gold's bounce from its one-year low.
What did the Fed papers say after Friday's jobs report?
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the October jobs report at 5:30 a.m. Vancouver time, PST, on Friday. CNBC reported that employers added 165,000 jobs, against a Dow Jones estimate of 59,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.
The federal funds rate is the Fed's main overnight lending rate between banks. It now sits in a range of 3.75% to 4%. The Fed raised it in September and held it in late October, Reuters reported.
CME Group's FedWatch tool turns prices in fed funds futures into the odds of a rate move. After the jobs report, CNBC said the odds of a quarter-point hike at the December 8 to 9 meeting rose to 76.8%. A quarter point is 25 basis points, and one basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point.
That 76.8% is a market price that can move, and CNBC said the same tool pointed to only one more increase after December. It added that odds of more hikes in 2027 had fallen in recent days.
Two Fed officials spoke on Thursday, November 5, the day before the jobs data. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack spoke first, according to Reuters. "I expect that monetary policy will need to move to a restrictive stance to bring inflation back to 2% in a timely manner," she said.
Hammack said she prefers "more frequent smaller adjustments when possible." Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said inflation is "too high" and that "gradual makes sense."
That is where the uncertainty sits. Reuters wrote that markets broadly expect a December increase, "although what happens after that is less clear." It also said Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has avoided giving guidance on the future path of rates.
So this week's Federal Reserve interest rate outlook came from three kinds of papers: a futures-based tool, two officials' speeches and a news report. None of them is a CMR rate call. For the October meeting itself, see CMR's October 28 report on the Fed decision.
What did IAMGOLD and B2Gold report this week?
These two gold mining stocks appear here because the companies filed results this week. They are not a list of gold stocks to watch, and the order carries no ranking.
Two terms help here. All-in sustaining cost, or AISC, adds a mine's running costs to the spending needed to keep it producing. That spending includes sustaining capital for equipment and mine development. AISC is quoted per ounce sold, while a realized price is the average price a company received for the gold it sold.
IAMGOLD produced 186,900 attributable ounces in the third quarter. Attributable means its ownership share: 70% of the Côté Gold mine in Ontario and 85% of Essakane in Burkina Faso, plus all of Westwood in Quebec.
Revenue was US$856.5 million at a realized price of US$4,277 an ounce. AISC was US$2,184 an ounce including royalties and US$1,836 without them. A royalty is a share of a mine's revenue or margin paid to another party.
IAMGOLD has produced 558,600 attributable ounces so far this year. Its 2026 guidance, meaning the range a company expects to reach, is 720,000 to 820,000 ounces. Reaching the low end takes at least 161,400 ounces in the fourth quarter.
The release also shows how the gold price feeds into costs. IAMGOLD set its guidance using US$4,000 gold, but its realized price so far this year averaged US$4,514. Royalties in its costs came to US$370 an ounce, US$45 above plan.
As a result, IAMGOLD expects AISC including royalties to exceed the top of its guidance range. At Côté, mill costs per tonne fell after the company stopped using an outside crushing contractor. The release also cites higher labour costs to fill vacant mill jobs, and diesel prices tied to the Middle East conflict added to production costs.
IAMGOLD expects about US$380 million of sustaining capital this year. It bought back 7.6 million shares for US$134.7 million in the quarter. On November 5, it also gave notice to buy back half of Franco-Nevada's 7.5% royalty on Côté, for about US$525 million.
B2Gold reported revenue of US$836 million at a realized price of US$4,289 an ounce. It produced 193,321 ounces, and free cash flow, or operating cash flow minus capital spending, was US$48 million.
Its AISC was US$2,602 an ounce in the quarter. B2Gold lowered its AISC guidance for this year to a range of US$2,230 to US$2,410. The earlier range had been US$2,370 to US$2,550. Its AISC includes sustaining capital, corporate costs and mine exploration, and quarterly sustaining capital came to US$133.3 million.
The Goose mine in Nunavut is the test inside those results. Goose produced 39,973 ounces in the quarter and 95,739 so far this year. Its guidance is 170,000 to 200,000 ounces.
Reaching the low end takes about 74,300 ounces in the fourth quarter, or 86% more than the third quarter. B2Gold said the first phase of its crusher upgrade there is done, with the circuit running at 3,200 tonnes a day.
Both realized prices were third-quarter averages. They were about US$203 and US$215 above Friday's spot reading, which shows that a miner's sales reflect a past quarter's prices. For earlier results from three larger producers, see CMR's November 2 market report.
How does a gold price forecast for 2026 differ from Friday's price?
A published gold market outlook answers a different question from a market reading. Research firm Metals Focus projected that gold will average US$4,600 an ounce across all of 2026, Kitco reported on October 19.
That is an annual average, so it includes months that have already passed. By November 8, more than ten of the year's twelve months were over. A gold price prediction for 2026 at this point is largely a record of where prices have been.
The week's papers hold three different 2026 gold numbers. Metals Focus has its US$4,600 forecast average. IAMGOLD planned its costs around US$4,000 gold, while its own sales this year averaged US$4,514.
The first is a research firm's estimate, the second is a planning input and the third is a result. None of them is a route from Friday's US$4,074.36 reading. For a look at how other forecasters frame 2027, see CMR's earlier comparison of two 2027 forecasts.
How I read it. On this evidence, the firmest facts this week are in the company papers. Both miners sold gold at third-quarter averages above US$4,270, and IAMGOLD showed how its royalty costs rise with the gold price. Friday's reading and the 76.8% odds are snapshots of one day.
What could these papers mean for retirement-age investors?
Gold itself pays no income, a point Benjamin Graham made in The Intelligent Investor, Chapter 2. He wrote: "But during all this time the holder of gold has received no income return on his capital, and instead has incurred some annual expense for storage."
That is why interest rates matter to gold. Reuters wrote on Friday that higher rates "raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion." Opportunity cost here means the interest a holder gives up by owning gold instead of a bond or deposit.
A mining company can pay cash in ways gold cannot. B2Gold declared a dividend of US$0.02 a share, payable on December 15 to holders of record on December 2. IAMGOLD pays no dividend now but said it is weighing one for 2027.
A share buyback works differently from a dividend, because the company spends cash buying its own shares from sellers. Holders who keep their shares receive no cash, though each share then stands for a slightly larger part of the company.
The papers behind the gold investment outlook are all dated estimates. A forecast average, a futures-implied probability and a company's planning price can each be revised. None of them promises a level or a payment beyond what a board has declared.
What else are readers asking about gold this week?
Did gold end the week higher?
Reuters' update at 10:54 a.m. Vancouver time, PST, put spot gold up 5.2% for the week. December futures settled at US$4,074.90 on Friday, but this article found no verified final spot close.
Why did gold dip on Friday after a strong week?
Reuters tied the dip to the strong jobs report, a 0.7% rise in the dollar and higher Treasury yields. Reuters said the data reinforced expectations that the Fed could keep rates higher for longer.
Do Canadian gold stocks simply track the gold price?
The two releases show other forces at work. IAMGOLD's royalty costs rose with the gold price, and B2Gold's results hang partly on the Goose mine's fourth quarter. Output, costs and royalties all shape what a miner keeps.
What is scheduled next?
These are dated events in the gold market news calendar, not a ranked list of securities.
- November 9: Barrick Mining (TSX: ABX) plans to release third-quarter results at 6:00 a.m. Eastern time, which is 3:00 a.m. Vancouver time, PST.
- November 10: The BLS calendar lists the October consumer price index, a measure of prices paid by consumers, at 5:30 a.m. Vancouver time, PST.
- November 13: The same calendar lists the October producer price index, a measure of prices received by producers, at 5:30 a.m. Vancouver time, PST.
- December 2: B2Gold's dividend record date, the date that sets who receives the payment. Payment follows on December 15.
- December 8 and 9: The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's rate-setting group, meets. CNBC's 76.8% figure refers to this meeting.
FAQ
Is the 76.8% FedWatch figure a Fed decision?
The 76.8% figure is a market-implied probability from CME Group's FedWatch tool, as CNBC reported on November 6. It comes from fed funds futures prices, while the decision itself belongs to the Fed's rate committee. That committee next meets on December 8 and 9.
Was US$4,074.36 Friday's closing gold price?
Reuters reported spot gold at US$4,074.36 at 10:54 a.m. Vancouver time, PST, on November 6, and this article treats it as a dated reading. The close Reuters did report was for December futures, which settled at US$4,074.90. No final spot close was verified.
Does the US$4,600 Metals Focus figure mean CMR expects that price?
The US$4,600 figure is Metals Focus' projected average gold price for all of 2026, as Kitco reported on October 19. It is a research firm's published forecast, not a CMR view. An annual average also includes months that have already passed.
Sources
- PRECIOUS-Gold drops as strong US payrolls boost dollar, yields, Reuters via Longbridge, November 6, 2026. Web research; Reuters reprint. Source
- B2Gold Reports Q3 2026 Results, Lowers Annual All-In Sustaining Cost Guidance and Remains On-Track to Achieve Production Guidance, B2Gold, November 4, 2026. Web research; primary company release. Source
- IAMGOLD Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results, IAMGOLD, November 5, 2026. Web research; primary company release. Source
- Gold Bounces From a One-Year Low as Dip Buyers Return. Is the Sell-Off Finally Over?, Canadian Mining Report, November 2, 2026. Internal context. Source
- U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs in October, way more than expected; unemployment rate slips to 4.1%, CNBC, November 6, 2026. Web research. Source
- Fed's Hammack, Barkin Favor Gradual Rate-Hike Path to Lower Inflation, Reuters via U.S. News and World Report, November 5, 2026. Web research; Reuters reprint. Source
- Fed Rate Decision Today: Can Gold and Silver Rebound?, Canadian Mining Report, October 28, 2026. Internal context. Source
- Gold declines as Fed holds rates flat likely on tech crash forced selling (market report including Big Gold Q3/26 results), Canadian Mining Report, November 2, 2026. Internal context. Source
- Gold's path to $6,000 and silver's return above $90 depend on renewed investor confidence, Metals Focus, Kitco News, October 19, 2026. Web research. Source
- Gold Price Prediction: UBS Sticks to $5,400 Target for 2027 as Reuters Survey Sees $4,650, Canadian Mining Report, November 2, 2026. Internal context. Source
- The Intelligent Investor, Benjamin Graham, Chapter 2. CMR Research Library, published book.
- Barrick to Report Third Quarter 2026 Results on November 9, Barrick Mining, October 9, 2026. Web research; primary company release. Source
- Schedule of Selected Releases for November 2026, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, updated November 3, 2026. Web research; primary calendar. Source
