This article is for information only. It is not investment advice. It does not recommend that anyone buy or sell any stock, fund, or ounce of metal. “Top stocks to buy” in a headline is a search phrase. It is not an order ticket. Company names below are industry examples. Do your own work. Speak with a qualified adviser.
Goldman Sachs still has a year-end 2026 gold number that traders can write on a whiteboard.
$4,900 an ounce.
That figure comes from commodities work led in public notes by Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven, with earlier “gold is not done” language from Samantha Dart. Kitco reported on Sept. 23 that Goldman’s fair-value forecast of $4,900 by end-2026 assumes central banks keep buying about 50 tonnes a month this year and 40 tonnes a month in 2027, plus a recovery in ETF demand if the Fed stays on hold.
Spot gold is near $4,280 as of Sept. 25–26. From here, $4,900 is roughly 14% higher. From the January record near $5,400, it is a partial recovery, not a new moonshot.
Some mid-September coverage said Goldman had shaded the 2026 year-end band toward $4,650 to $4,900 after the Fed’s Sept. 16 hike, while keeping $5,400 for the end of 2027. Readers should treat $4,900 as the widely cited base case, and treat the lower band as the rate-risk case. Forecasts move. The metal already has.
The investor question is narrower than the headline.
If official buying holds and gold works back toward $4,900, which kinds of gold equities tend to feel it first, and which ones only look good in a slide deck?
What Goldman is actually betting on
The $4,900 call is not a technical breakout note.
It is a demand note.
Goldman anchors the path in emerging-market central-bank diversification after the 2022 freeze of Russian reserves. The bank’s nowcast has put July official buying near 44 tonnes, versus a pre-2022 average of about 17 tonnes a month. On a three-month seasonally adjusted basis, Goldman has cited a trend near 91 tonnes a month. China is described as a large unreported or under-reported contributor.
The base case does not need 91 tonnes a month forever. It needs something like 50 tonnes a month in 2026.
That is still three times the old normal.
ETF demand is the second engine. It is also the weaker one right now. Private funds buy when real yields fall and sell when the Fed looks hawkish. Goldman has said a hold in 2026 would help ETFs stabilize. A further hike could clip that engine. In June the bank itself cut the year-end target from $5,400 to $4,900 when rate-cut hopes faded. It also said a hike case could take the number toward $4,400.
So the $4,900 print is constructive and conditional.
It is constructive because official buying has not gone back to 17 tonnes.
It is conditional because Western investment demand is still a function of the Fed.
Anyone mapping stocks to this call should keep both sentences.
How a $600 move shows up in equities
Gold stocks are not gold.
They are a claim on the gap between the gold price and the cost of digging it up.
If bullion goes from $4,280 to $4,900, a miner with all-in sustaining costs near $1,800 sees a wider margin. A miner with costs near $3,800 sees a smaller lift. A developer with no mine sees a higher net-present-value on paper and still needs a mill. A junior with a slide deck sees a better tape for the next financing.
That ranking is the whole equity framework.
Producers convert a higher gold price into cash first.
Royalty and streaming firms convert it into contracted ounces without building the pit.
Mid-tier names convert it if the asset works and the balance sheet holds.
Explorers convert it only if the market wants to fund the next campaign.
A 14% move in the metal can mean much more than 14% in a high-cost or high-torque name. It can also mean less than 14% if the company issues stock, misses guidance, or sits in a jurisdiction that raises royalties the minute prices look healthy.
Leverage is a description.
It is not a free lunch.
Category one: large producers investors already know
These are the names that show up when people type “best gold stocks” into a search bar. They are examples of scale. They are not a ranked buy list.
Agnico Eagle Mines is Canada’s largest gold producer by several market-cap snapshots in 2026. First-half output was reported near 1.68 million ounces. The asset base is weighted to Canada, Australia, Finland, and Mexico. Full-year guidance has been described near the low end of 3.3 to 3.5 million ounces after grade pressure at some sites. A higher gold price helps the margin. It does not fix a grade miss by itself.
Barrick Mining remains a giant with a mixed book: gold plus copper, and mines across several continents. First-half gold output was cited near 1.52 million ounces. Diversification can cushion a gold slump when copper is strong. It can also muddy a pure gold rebound. Jurisdiction is the standing research item. A $4,900 tape does not erase that item.
Kinross, Alamos, Equinox, IAMGOLD, Eldorado, B2Gold, New Gold, and OceanaGold sit in the next ring of producers that investors watch when the metal catches a bid. Each has a different cost curve, hedge book, and country mix. The right question is not “which ticker goes up most.” The right question is which cost structure still prints cash if gold only reaches $4,500, and which one needs $4,900 to look clever.
Newmont is the global scale name, not a TSX flagship. It still sets the tone for how large-cap gold trades when the Street debates a year-end target.
None of these companies “must” rally if Goldman is right. Large caps can lag the metal when investors rotate into other sectors. They can also lead if margins surprise. History supports both outcomes. That is why a forecast is a scene, not a script.
Category two: royalties and streams
Wheaton Precious Metals and Franco-Nevada are the two Canadian royalty giants by market value. Osisko Gold Royalties is the next name on many TSX screens. Royal Gold is the U.S.-listed peer.
The model is simple to state and easy to oversell.
A royalty firm pays upfront. It then collects a slice of production at a low ongoing cost. When gold rises, that slice is worth more. The firm does not pour the concrete. It also does not control the mine. If the operator stumbles, the royalty still waits.
In a $4,900 tape, quality royalty books tend to look like high-margin gold with less operating drama. In a risk-off tape, they often fall less than juniors and sometimes less than high-cost producers. That pattern is why they show up in “gold stocks to watch” lists. It is not why they are risk-free.
Valuation is the catch. After a long gold bull market, some royalty multiples already assume a friendly metal price. A move from $4,280 to $4,900 may be partly in the stock. Research has to start with the existing multiple, not with the slogan.
Category three: Canadian mid-tiers and developers
This is where a $600 gold move can change a mine plan.
A project that looks tight at $3,500 can look financeable at $4,900. A mill expansion that was postponed can return to the board pack. A reserve that was cut for price can be written back if costs allow.
It can also invite trouble.
Higher prices attract more equity issuance. They attract more political rent-seeking. They attract more “we will build it next year” language that does not come with a construction decision.
Canadian names in this band include producers and builders that investors already debate on CEO.CA and in bank initiation notes: Lundin Gold, Artemis Gold, Dundee Precious Metals, SSR Mining, and others that rotate in and out of the “active” tape. Listing them is a map of the sector. It is not an endorsement of any single project.
The research filter is boring and useful.
Does the company have a permitted path?
Does it have cash or a partner?
Does the all-in cost still work if gold spends six months at $4,200?
If the answer to the last question is no, the name is a $4,900 option. Options expire. Mines do not have to.
Category four: juniors and explorers
Junior gold stocks are where the phrase “top stocks to buy” does the most damage.
A junior is usually a call option on a discovery and on the financing window. When gold is rising and ETFs are taking in metal, that window opens. When real yields jump, the window slams. The same hole that looked cheap at $4,900 gold can be unfinanceable at $4,200.
Canadian juniors are numerous. Most will not become mines. That is not cynicism. It is the base rate of the business.
A $4,900 Goldman call can help the group in two ways. It can lift the whole tape. It can make a decent intercept easier to fund. It cannot turn a weak team into a strong one. It cannot turn a bad jurisdiction into a good one.
Investors who want torque to Goldman’s number should size juniors as speculation, not as a core gold holding. The core, if there is one, is metal, a royalty, or a producer that already sells ounces.
What “benefit from higher gold prices” actually means
People also ask which gold stocks could benefit from higher gold prices.
The mechanical answer is: the ones with unhedged production, falling or stable costs, and a balance sheet that does not need a rescue raise.
The practical answer is: benefit is not the same as “go up tomorrow.”
A producer can benefit on the income statement and still see the stock stall if the market is selling the sector for tax-loss reasons, or if a single mine has a pit-wall problem. A royalty can benefit on contracted ounces and still look expensive. A junior can benefit on sentiment and still dilute shareholders by 20% to fund the next 10,000 metres.
Higher gold is a tailwind.
It is not a substitute for due diligence.
Canadian gold stocks in a $4,900 world
The TSX is still one of the world’s main gold-equity venues. Agnico, Barrick, Wheaton, Franco-Nevada, and Kinross are the gravity wells. Around them sit mid-tiers and a long tail of explorers.
Canada’s advantage is not that every Canadian name is safer. Some of the risk sits in West Africa, Latin America, or a single-asset camp with a short mine life. The advantage is a market that knows how to list, raise, and trade gold paper. Liquidity is a feature. It is also how weak stories get sold to the public in a bull tape.
If Goldman is right and gold spends the fourth quarter rebuilding toward $4,900, Canadian gold stocks as a group should have a better tape than they had in the spring slump. That is a sector statement. It is not a forecast for any ticker.
If Goldman is wrong and the Fed delivers another hike that knocks ETFs, the same group can give back the August bounce in a week. June already showed that path when the bank itself cut $5,400 to $4,900.
The risks that sit beside the target
Rate risk is first.
Gold pays no yield. A higher real rate makes the $4,900 math harder. Goldman has already written the downside case toward $4,400 if hikes persist and the hedge bid fades.
Official-buying risk is second.
The $4,900 path assumes 50 tonnes a month, not 91. If the nowcast is high and true purchases fade toward the old 17-tonne world, the forecast breaks even if the Fed is quiet.
China reporting risk is third.
Goldman has argued that China buys more than the monthly PBOC print shows. That may be right. It is still an estimate. Estimates can be revised down.
Equity-specific risk is fourth.
Cost inflation, strikes, permitting, and dilution do not care about a New York research target.
Valuation risk is fifth.
After 2024–2025, many gold stocks already discount a friendlier metal price. A move to $4,900 can be real in the commodity and small in the multiple if the multiple is already rich.
How to use the Goldman number without becoming the headline
Use $4,900 as a scenario.
Ask what each name earns at $4,300, $4,600, and $4,900.
Ask what the stock already prices.
Ask whether you need the equity at all, or whether bullion or a royalty does the job with less operating noise.
Size the speculative sleeve so a failed junior cannot wreck the gold thesis.
Do not build a portfolio that only works if Lina Thomas is exactly right on Dec. 31.
Bank targets miss. They also get used as marketing copy. The difference between those two outcomes is the reader.
People also asked
Which gold stocks could benefit from higher gold prices?
Unhedged producers with controllable costs tend to show the benefit first in cash flow. Royalty and streaming firms tend to show it with less operating drama. Juniors tend to show it in sentiment and financing access. None of that is a buy rating.
Is $4,900 still Goldman’s 2026 gold forecast?
Kitco’s Sept. 23 report still cited a $4,900 end-2026 fair-value forecast from Thomas and Struyven, built on about 50 tonnes a month of official buying. Separate mid-September items described a $4,650 to $4,900 year-end band after the Sept. 16 Fed hike, with $5,400 held for end-2027. Check the latest primary note before treating any one print as frozen.
Are these the best gold stocks to buy for 2026?
No article can answer that for a stranger. “Best” depends on time horizon, risk tolerance, tax situation, and whether the holder wants metal, cash flow, or torque. This piece maps categories. It does not pick winners.
The only clean conclusion
Goldman Sachs sees a path to $4,900 gold by the end of 2026 if central banks keep buying and private demand does not stay on strike.
That path, if it happens, would help the gold-equity complex. It would help some names more than others. It would help cash-flowing ounces more than stories. It would not suspend geology, dilution, or the Fed.
The top of the research pile is still the same short list it was before the headline: a few large producers, a few royalty platforms, and a small, hard-capped sleeve of higher-risk names for people who accept the base rate of failure in the junior market.
Call that a watch list if you want.
Do not call it a shopping list.
$4,900 is a bank’s number.
Your capital is not.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not investment, tax, or legal advice. It is not a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Goldman Sachs price targets are opinions and change. Company names are used as sector examples. Market caps and production figures are approximate snapshots from public reports and can move daily. Gold and mining investments can result in the loss of some or all capital. Verify all figures against company filings and current research before acting. Canadian Mining Report and its contributors may hold positions in securities mentioned from time to time.