Weiss Ratings Flags a Potential Gold Buying Opportunity. What Investors Need to Know

Two well-known research shops looked at gold's fall from its January record and came to similar conclusions. Here is what each note says, point by point, and how the supporting data holds up.

Educational content only, not investment advice. Mining stocks are high risk.

By Ben McGregor

Weiss Ratings analyst Sean Brodrick wrote on October 12, 2026 that gold's recent pullback gives buyers a better price than a few months earlier. On October 20, the UBS Chief Investment Office said it views weakness toward $4,000 an ounce as a chance to add gold. Both notes fit a long-term gold price forecast that is higher than today's level, and both accept near-term pressure from rates.

Gold closed at $3,995.81 an ounce on Friday, October 23, 2026, according to GoldPrice.com. This article summarizes each note in its own order and then checks the main figures against independent sources. Canadian gold producers such as Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX: AEM, NYSE: AEM) are tied to these views because their profits rise and fall with the gold price.

Who are Weiss Ratings and UBS, and why do their gold views matter?

Weiss Ratings is a US research firm that rates financial companies and publishes investment newsletters. Brodrick writes about natural resources, and his articles often promote paid subscription services, which readers can weigh when reading his views.

UBS is a large Swiss bank. Its Chief Investment Office, often shortened to CIO, sets the house view that UBS wealth advisers use with clients. A CIO note therefore reflects the official stance of a major global bank.

The two sources reach a broad audience, so their views can influence how individual investors think about gold. That makes it worth checking exactly what each one said.

What did the Weiss Ratings note actually say?

The note was titled "3 Forces Poised to Light a Fire Under Gold" and ran on the Weiss website. Brodrick opened by saying gold and gold miners rallied into August, then fell hard into October as rising bond yields lifted the US dollar. He then listed three forces, in this order.

First, China's buying season. Chinese markets reopened after the Golden Week holiday from October 1 to October 7. Brodrick wrote that Golden Week has historically marked the start of China's peak gold-buying season, and that the World Gold Council confirms stronger sales in this period.

Second, central bank buying. Citing the World Gold Council, he wrote that central banks bought a net 39 tonnes of gold in August. China led with 20 tonnes, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023 and its 22nd straight month of buying. He also listed purchases by Poland, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkey. His view is that central banks are moving reserves away from currencies and government debt.

Third, miner profits. Brodrick wrote that industry all-in sustaining costs averaged $1,785 an ounce in the first quarter, while average margins hit a record $3,076 an ounce. All-in sustaining cost, or AISC, is a miner's total cost per ounce, including the spending that keeps its mines operating. He cited Newmont's $5.35 billion of free cash flow in the first half of 2026, up 83 percent from a year earlier.

He added that the 25 largest holdings in the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF traded at an average trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 16.1. A trailing price-to-earnings ratio divides the share price by the past year's profit per share, so a lower number means a cheaper stock. He called this their cheapest level in at least 41 quarters, and said their second-quarter operating cash flow rose 36 percent.

Brodrick then named the SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM), a fund that holds physical gold, as a simple way to own the metal. He noted its yearly fee of 0.10 percent, compared with 0.40 percent for the larger SPDR Gold Shares fund. On a $100,000 holding, that gap works out to $300 a year. He closed by saying bond yields and the dollar may keep gold choppy in the short run.

What did the UBS note actually say?

The UBS note, dated October 20, 2026, was titled "CIO remains constructive on gold over the next 12 months." It made three groups of points, in this order.

First, the headwinds. UBS said higher real yields and a firm US dollar have weighed on gold. A real yield is a bond's interest rate minus inflation, and a higher real yield makes a metal that pays no interest less attractive. UBS noted that gold lost about 7 percent in September. It said markets still expected a quarter-point Fed rate increase in December, and that the CIO expects hikes in both December and March.

Second, the supports. UBS pointed to strong central bank demand as countries reduce their exposure to US dollar assets. It also cited high government debt and concern about the buying power of currencies. Finally, it noted that gold is no other institution's liability, unlike a bond or a bank deposit.

Third, the forecast. UBS forecast gold rising toward $5,400 an ounce by September 2027. It said pullbacks toward $4,000 can be seen as opportunities for investors to add exposure, and it described gold as a long-term portfolio hedge and diversifier.

Does the data behind these gold price forecast views hold up?

Most of the figures the two notes rely on check out against primary sources.

Central bank buying: the World Gold Council reported net central bank purchases of 39 tonnes in August 2026, with China buying 20 tonnes in its 22nd straight month. Year-to-date purchases through August totalled 170 tonnes, the Council said. Our earlier article on central bank buying during the gold price decline covers this trend in more detail.

Miner margins: the World Gold Council reported that average AISC was $1,785 an ounce in the first quarter of 2026, up 16 percent from a year earlier. The average AISC margin reached a record $3,076 an ounce, up 134 percent. More recent company data points the same way. Newmont reported a by-product AISC of $1,454 an ounce on October 22, against an average realized gold price of $4,317.

Newmont cash flow: Newmont's second-quarter release showed first-half 2026 free cash flow of $5.349 billion, which matches the Weiss figure.

The September drop: monthly price data from StatMuse shows gold opening September near $4,452 and closing near $4,156. That is a fall of about 7 percent, in line with the UBS figure.

The distance to the targets: gold's record close was $5,405 on January 29, 2026, according to GoldPrice.com. The October 23 close sits about 26 percent below that record. Reaching the UBS target of $5,400 would require a gain of about 35 percent by September 2027.

One figure could not be checked independently. The junior miner price-to-earnings ratio of 16.1 comes from Weiss's own calculation, so readers are relying on Weiss for that number.

What do the rate and dollar figures show right now?

Both notes say rates are the main short-term obstacle, and current data supports that. Earlier this month, the yield on 10-year US government bonds climbed to a level not seen in more than two decades. By October 23, it had slipped to just under 5.0 percent, CNBC reported.

The US dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, hit an 18-month high above 102.5 in mid-October, FXStreet reported. It eased to about 101.8 by October 23. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for buyers who use other currencies.

Fed expectations match the UBS view. Futures markets on October 23 gave close to nine-in-ten odds that rates stay unchanged at the October 27-28 meeting, based on CME FedWatch data reported by FXStreet. For December, CNBC put the odds of a quarter-point increase near 71 percent, which lines up with what UBS expects.

Our article on the macro drivers to watch, from the Fed to Brent crude covers these forces in more depth.

Where do the two notes differ?

The notes agree on the long-term supports but differ in focus. Weiss stresses Chinese demand and miner profits, while UBS stresses reserve diversification and government debt. Weiss does not name a price level in this note. UBS names both a level, $4,000, and a target, $5,400.

Brodrick has taken a more aggressive long-term stance in the past. On January 21, 2026, he raised his gold target to $10,000 an ounce from just over $6,900, a target he had set in October 2024. The October note did not repeat that number.

UBS, for its part, is openly expecting two more rate hikes. That means its forecast assumes gold can rise even while rates move higher. For that to happen, central bank demand and debt concerns would need to outweigh the pull of higher yields.

People also ask: Is gold's pullback a chance to buy, according to these analysts?

Both firms described the decline in positive terms. Weiss said the pullback offers a better price than a few months ago, and UBS said moves toward $4,000 can be seen as chances to add exposure.

Those are the firms' views, not facts about the future. Gold fell further after both notes were published, and it closed below $4,000 on October 23. A forecast can be right about direction and still wrong about timing, which matters for anyone holding the metal or mining shares.

For miners, the gap between price and cost explains why both notes stay positive. Even at $4,000, Agnico Eagle's second-quarter AISC of $1,459 an ounce leaves a wide margin. Our article on five Canadian gold miners and their November catalysts covers those company numbers. Silver views are covered in our article on five Canadian silver miners.

What are the risks in leaning on analyst forecasts?

Forecasts from respected firms still miss. UBS's own note expects two more Fed hikes, and each one would raise the return on cash and bonds. If inflation stays high, gold could stay under pressure for longer than either firm expects.

The source of a view also matters. Weiss newsletters sell subscriptions, so their articles are written partly to attract readers. UBS writes its CIO notes for its own wealth management clients. Neither fact makes a view wrong, but both are worth knowing.

Finally, mining shares carry risks that the metal does not. A mine can lose production to a pit wall failure, a strike or a permit dispute, as several Canadian producers have this year.

What to watch: dated calendar

• October 27-28, 2026: Federal Reserve meeting, with the decision on October 28. UBS expects the next hike in December.
• October 28, 2026: Agnico Eagle third-quarter results after the market closes, an early test of whether miner margins are holding.
• October 29, 2026: US inflation data for September (the PCE price index) and the first estimate of third-quarter GDP, both from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
• November 10, 2026: US consumer price index for October, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• December 8-9, 2026: the next Federal Reserve meeting, where markets expect a possible rate increase.

Frequently asked questions

What did Weiss Ratings say about gold in October 2026?

In an October 12, 2026 note, Sean Brodrick of Weiss Ratings named three forces he sees supporting gold. They were China's peak buying season after Golden Week, central bank purchases, and record miner profit margins.

What is the UBS gold price forecast?

In an October 20, 2026 note, the UBS Chief Investment Office forecast gold rising toward $5,400 an ounce by September 2027. That compares with a closing price of $3,995.81 on October 23, 2026.

Do Weiss Ratings and UBS agree on interest rates?

Both said higher bond yields and a firm US dollar have pressured gold in the short term. UBS went further and said it expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates in December 2026 and March 2027.

Sources

1. Sean Brodrick, "3 Forces Poised to Light a Fire Under Gold," Weiss Ratings, October 12, 2026. https://weissratings.com/en/weiss-ratings-daily/3-forces-poised-to-light-a-fire-under-gold
2. Sean Brodrick, "Why Gold's Headed for $10,000 an Ounce," Weiss Ratings, January 21, 2026. https://weissratings.com/en/weiss-ratings-daily/why-gold-s-headed-for-10-000-an-ounce
3. UBS Editorial Team, "CIO remains constructive on gold over the next 12 months," UBS, October 20, 2026. https://www.ubs.com/us/en/wealth-management/market-news/article.3875359.html
4. World Gold Council, "Central Bank Gold Statistics: Central banks continue summer spree in August," October 2026. https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/10/central-bank-gold-statistics-central-banks-continue-summer-spree-august
5. World Gold Council, "Record gold prices outpace rising mining costs in Q1'26," August 2026. https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/08/record-gold-prices-outpace-rising-mining-costs-q126
6. Newmont, "Newmont Reports Robust Second Quarter 2026 Results," July 23, 2026. https://www.newmont.com/investors/news-release/news-details/2026/Newmont-Reports-Robust-Second-Quarter-2026-Results-Remains-on-Track-to-Achieve-Full-Year-Guidance/default.aspx
7. Newmont, "Newmont Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results," October 22, 2026. https://www.newmont.com/investors/news-release/news-details/2026/Newmont-Reports-Third-Quarter-2026-Results-with-Record-Third-Quarter-Adjusted-Net-Income-Positioned-to-Achieve-Full-Year-Guidance-Provides-Update-on-Red-Chris-Block-Cave-Project/default.aspx
8. StatMuse Money, gold monthly price data, accessed October 24, 2026. https://www.statmuse.com/money/ask/what-is-the-highest-close-for-gold
9. GoldPrice.com, "Gold Price Today," market close for Friday, October 23, 2026. https://www.goldprice.com/gold-price-today
10. CNBC, "10-year Treasury yield drops back to 5% this week," October 23, 2026. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/23/bonds-yields-us-treasurys.html
11. FXStreet, "Dollar Index hits an 18-month high as the energy ceasefire fails," October 12, 2026. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dollar-index-hits-an-18-month-high-as-the-energy-ceasefire-fails-202610121554
12. FinanceFeeds, "Gold Price Today: $3,996 After the Break Below $4,000," October 24, 2026. https://financefeeds.com/gold-price-today-3996-saturday-week-ahead-fed-28-october-silver-year-low-bull-4150-bear-3890/
13. Agnico Eagle, "Agnico Eagle Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results," July 29, 2026. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/agnico-eagle-reports-second-quarter-2026-results--record-quarterly-free-cash-flow-reflects-solid-operational-performance-record-quarterly-shareholder-returns-302837897.html
14. US Bureau of Economic Analysis, release schedule. https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
15. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Consumer Price Index, September 2026," October 14, 2026 (next release date). https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm