Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: GOLD / TSX: ABX) released its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results after market close on February 5, 2026. The company posted record quarterly operating cash flow of US$2.73 billion and free cash flow of US$1.62 billion, driven by higher realized gold prices and strong execution across its tier-one portfolio. Full-year 2025 attributable gold production totaled 3.26 million ounces, in line with guidance, while copper production reached a record 220,000 tonnes.
The 2026 outlook, however, introduced a note of caution: attributable gold production guidance was set at 2.9–3.25 million ounces, below 2025 levels primarily due to planned maintenance, mine sequencing, and the timing of ramp-ups at several assets. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) guidance was also higher than 2025, reflecting ongoing industry-wide cost pressures.
This detailed analysis examines the February 5, 2026 earnings release, the earnings call transcript, the full financial statements, and what the 2026 guidance means for barrick gold investors and the broader gold mining sector in 2026 and beyond. All data is sourced directly from Barrick’s official disclosures and cross-verified with reputable financial platforms as of February 21, 2026.
Q4 2025 Results: A Quarterly Record Across Key Metrics
Barrick’s Q4 2025 performance was the strongest of the year:
Gold production: 871,000 ounces attributable (up 5% from Q3 2025), the highest quarterly output in 2025.
Copper production: 62,000 tonnes.
Revenue: US$6.00 billion (up 45% from Q3 2025).
Operating cash flow: US$2.73 billion.
Free cash flow: US$1.62 billion — a new quarterly record.
Net earnings: US$2.41 billion (US$1.43 per share), up 88% from Q3.
Adjusted net earnings: US$1.75 billion (US$1.04 per share), up 79% from Q3.
For the full year 2025:
Gold production: 3.26 million ounces (in line with original guidance).
Copper production: 220,000 tonnes (record year).
Revenue: US$16.96 billion.
Operating cash flow: US$7.69 billion.
Free cash flow: US$3.87 billion.
Net earnings per share: US$2.93.
Adjusted net earnings per share: US$2.42.
These figures are taken directly from Barrick Gold’s official “Barrick Reports Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2025 Results” press release and accompanying Management’s Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) filed on February 5, 2026, and available on SEDAR+ and the company’s investor website.
Cost performance remained competitive despite inflationary pressures. Q4 gold all-in sustaining costs were US$1,581 per ounce, while full-year AISC was US$1,637 per ounce. Copper C1 cash costs were also well controlled.
2026 Guidance in Detail: Production, Costs, and Capital Allocation
On the February 5, 2026 earnings call, management provided the following full-year 2026 guidance (based on a gold price assumption of US$4,500/oz and copper price of US$5.50/lb):
Gold production: 2.90 – 3.25 million ounces attributable.
Copper production: 190,000 – 220,000 tonnes.
Gold cost guidance: Cost of sales US$1,870 – $2,070/oz; total cash costs US$1,330 – $1,470/oz; AISC US$1,760 – $1,950/oz.
Copper cost guidance: Cost of sales US$3.05 – $3.35/lb; C1 cash costs US$2.20 – $2.45/lb; AISC US$3.45 – $3.75/lb.
Total attributable capital expenditures: US$2.6 – $3.0 billion (including growth capital).
Management explained that 2026 production is expected to be weighted toward the second half of the year due to scheduled maintenance at several sites and the ramp-up timing at Goldrush (Nevada) and other projects. The lower production range reflects normal mine sequencing rather than any operational issues.
A key highlight from the barrick gold earnings call was the announcement of a new dividend policy targeting 50% of attributable free cash flow, including a 40% increase in the base quarterly dividend to 17.5 cents per share. The company also indicated it would not renew its annual share buyback program, shifting emphasis to the enhanced dividend framework.
CEO Mark Hill stated on the call: “We enter 2026 with momentum, flexibility, and a clear plan forward.” CFO Graham Shuttleworth highlighted the strength of the balance sheet, noting a net cash position of approximately US$2 billion at year-end 2025.
The full earnings call transcript is publicly available on Barrick’s investor relations website and third-party platforms such as Seeking Alpha and Motley Fool (both dated February 5, 2026).
Barrick Gold Stock Forecast and 2026 Outlook
Following the February 5, 2026 release, barrick gold stock experienced initial volatility due to the lighter production guidance, but has remained supported by the record Q4 cash flow, strong balance sheet, and higher prevailing gold prices (spot near US$5,000/oz in February 2026).
As of February 21, 2026, analyst consensus for barrick gold stock forecast (aggregated from MarketBeat, Wall Street Zen, Yahoo Finance, and Bloomberg) shows an average 12-month price target of approximately US$51–$55, with a range from US$40 to US$77. The consensus rating is Hold to Moderate Buy, with several firms maintaining “Buy” ratings citing Barrick’s tier-one asset quality and leverage to gold prices.
Barrick gold stock outlook for 2026 is closely tied to gold prices. With AISC guidance in the US$1,760–$1,950/oz range, each US$100/oz increase in realized gold price above the guidance assumption adds substantial free cash flow. The planned IPO of a minority stake in North American gold assets (targeted for late 2026) is expected to unlock additional shareholder value.
Longer-term, Barrick’s portfolio of tier-one assets (Nevada Gold Mines, Pueblo Viejo, Loulo-Gounkoto, etc.), copper diversification (Lumwana, Reko Diq), and disciplined capital allocation position it well for sustained performance in a structurally bullish gold environment.
Gold Mine Investment Opportunities and Broader Sector Context
Barrick remains one of the highest-quality gold companies to invest in for investors seeking exposure to the gold mining sector. Its scale, low geopolitical risk relative to many peers, strong balance sheet, and growing dividend policy make it a core holding for many institutional barrick gold investors.
In the broader gold mining stock universe, Barrick’s 2026 guidance provides a useful benchmark. The lighter production outlook is common across the senior gold sector due to mine sequencing and cost pressures, but Barrick’s tier-one assets and financial flexibility give it an edge over smaller or higher-cost producers.
For investors evaluating gold mine investment opportunities, Barrick offers a combination of current cash flow generation, dividend growth, and long-term leverage to gold prices. The company’s February 5, 2026 earnings call reinforced management’s commitment to disciplined capital allocation and shareholder returns.
Is Barrick Gold a Good Investment Right Now?
For long-term, gold-bullish investors with a 24–60 month horizon, Barrick remains a high-quality choice. The record Q4 2025 cash flow, strong balance sheet, enhanced dividend policy, and tier-one asset base provide a solid foundation. The 2026 production guidance is lighter than 2025, but this is largely due to normal mine sequencing rather than operational issues, and higher gold prices provide significant margin cushion.
The stock offers leveraged exposure to gold prices with lower geopolitical risk than many junior or mid-tier producers. However, near-term traders may prefer to wait for a better entry if gold prices pull back or if the market continues to focus on the lighter 2026 guidance.
What is the outlook for Barrick 2026?
Management’s outlook is constructive. The company expects production to be weighted toward H2 2026, with ramp-ups at key assets offsetting maintenance. Financial flexibility remains strong, supporting the new dividend policy and potential growth initiatives. The planned IPO of North American gold assets (targeted for late 2026) is viewed as a potential catalyst for unlocking value.
Overall, Barrick’s 2026 outlook reflects a mature, high-quality operator focused on cash returns and disciplined growth in a favorable gold price environment.
Risks and Considerations for Barrick Gold Investors
Key risks include:
Gold and copper price volatility.
Operational challenges or higher-than-expected costs.
Geopolitical or permitting issues at international assets.
Execution risk on growth projects and the planned IPO.
Barrick’s strong financial position (net cash positive) provides a meaningful buffer against these risks.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a solicitation of any offer. All investments, including barrick gold stock, involve significant risk of loss, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own thorough due diligence, review company filings on SEDAR+ and EDGAR, and consult licensed financial professionals before making any investment decisions. Market data, earnings figures, guidance, and analyst commentary cited are based on publicly available sources as of February 21, 2026 (including Barrick Gold’s official Q4 and Full Year 2025 Results Press Release, MD&A, Financial Statements, and Earnings Call Transcript dated February 5, 2026, Trading Economics, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, MarketBeat, and Seeking Alpha) and are subject to change. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of the information.
Final Thoughts: A High-Quality Operator in a Structurally Bullish Gold Market
Barrick Gold’s Q4 2025 earnings demonstrated the strength of its tier-one portfolio and operational execution, delivering record cash flow in a high-gold-price environment. While the 2026 production guidance was lighter than some hoped, the company’s financial flexibility, enhanced dividend policy, and long-term growth pipeline position it well for sustained performance.
For barrick gold investors, the 2026 outlook reflects a mature, high-quality operator focused on cash returns and disciplined growth. In a structurally supportive gold market, Barrick remains one of the premier ways to gain leveraged exposure with lower geopolitical risk than many peers.
Stay keen,
CanadianMiningReport.com
P.S. Successfully evaluating large-cap gold producers like Barrick alongside critical minerals opportunities requires independent, disciplined analysis. Rob Bruggeman and the team at TheWealthyMiner.com deliver exactly that — clear-eyed research on barrick gold stock, Canadian gold miners, critical minerals, and the broader resource sector. Visit today for educational resources and expert insights tailored to the 2026 mining landscape.
Key Sources (verified as of February 21, 2026):
Barrick Gold Corporation official “Barrick Reports Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2025 Results” press release, MD&A, Financial Statements, and Mine Statistics (February 5, 2026).
Barrick Gold Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript (February 5, 2026, available on Barrick investor site and Seeking Alpha/Motley Fool).
Trading Economics, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, MarketBeat, and Wall Street Zen consensus data (February 2026 updates).
All facts, figures, dates, production numbers, financial metrics, and guidance have been cross-verified against Barrick’s official disclosures and reputable financial data providers.
Author
Ben McGregor authors the Weekly Roundup at CanadianMiningReport.com, providing sharp analysis of the metals and mining sector. With a talent for spotting trends, Ben distills complex market shifts into clear, engaging insights on TSXV junior miners. His weekly updates cover gold, copper, uranium, and more, blending data-driven perspectives with a knack for identifying opportunities. A vital resource for investors, Ben’s work navigates the dynamic junior mining landscape with precision.