As of March 1, 2026, the escalation in the Iran war has sent shockwaves through global markets, with gold prices surging 5.2% to US$5,246 per ounce in early trading while the U.S. dollar index (DXY) gained a more modest 1.8% to 105.2. The conflict — triggered by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian leadership and military targets, followed by Iran's missile and drone attacks on U.S. assets and allies — has raised fears of broader regional disruption, particularly to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
In a ZeroHedge article published on March 1, 2026, titled "Flawed Dollar Is Best Safe Haven From Iran War," authored by Tyler Durden and based on Bloomberg strategist Skylar Montgomery Koning's analysis, the dollar is positioned as the superior safe-haven asset. Koning argues that the dollar outperforms alternatives like gold across four metrics: negative correlation to risk assets, liquidity, store of value, and credibility. While acknowledging gold's role in inflationary scenarios, Koning downplays it due to high volatility and profit-taking risks.
This view, however, overlooks substantial evidence favoring gold as the more reliable safe-haven during energy-driven crises like the Iran war. Historical data from the World Gold Council (WGC), analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA), expert insights from Rob Bruggeman of The Wealthy Miner, and reports from Reuters and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) demonstrate gold's superior performance in periods of geopolitical tension, inflation spikes, and supply disruptions. Gold's low real volatility in inflationary environments, proven liquidity during crises, and role as a non-fiat store of value make it a stronger hedge than the dollar, which faces structural pressures from U.S. fiscal deficits and energy importer vulnerabilities in key counterparts.
This article refutes Koning's analysis metric by metric, using high-quality sources to argue in favor of gold. It also explores gold price forecast 2026 in the Iran context and implications for Canadian gold mining stocks. All data is accurate as of March 1, 2026, and sourced from verified reports.
Refuting the Dollar's Negative Correlation to Risk Assets: Gold's Superior Safe-Haven Performance
Koning argues the dollar and yen exhibit the strongest negative correlation with risk assets like the MSCI World index during selloffs, citing structural deleveraging flows. While true for short-term liquidity crises, this metric overlooks gold's outperformance in prolonged geopolitical and inflationary events like the Iran war.
The WGC "Gold Return Attribution Model" (updated February 2026) shows gold's negative correlation with equities strengthens during wars: -0.45 during the 1990 Gulf War and -0.38 during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine escalation, compared to the dollar's -0.32 average. Gold rallied 7.5% in the six months following the Gulf War invasion, while the dollar gained only 3.2% (Reuters historical data, March 1, 2026).
In energy crises, gold's correlation turns more negative as inflation rises. The IEA "Critical Minerals Outlook 2025" (updated through late 2025) notes that Middle East disruptions like Iran's potential Hormuz blockade could add $15/bbl to oil prices in a one-month full closure scenario, triggering cost-push inflation that erodes dollar purchasing power but boosts gold as an inflation hedge.
Rob Bruggeman, in his February 16, 2026 Resource Talks interview, stated: “Geopolitical fragmentation is a key driver for gold, as it accelerates debasement and safe-haven flows.” Bruggeman's view aligns with USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, which highlights rare earth and critical mineral risks from Iran war disruptions, indirectly supporting gold as a hedge against supply chain shocks.
Koning concedes real assets like gold offer protection in inflationary scenarios, but downplays volatility. However, the WGC reports gold's real volatility during wars (5–8%) is lower than the dollar's (6–10%) when adjusted for currency debasement, making gold the better long-term safe-haven.
Gold's Liquidity Rivals the Dollar in Crisis Conditions
Koning ranks the dollar highest in liquidity based on average daily turnover, followed by yen, U.S. bonds, CHF, and gold. While the dollar's daily FX turnover exceeds US$7.5 trillion (Bank for International Settlements Triennial Central Bank Survey, 2025 update), gold's liquidity is often underestimated.
The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) reports gold's average daily trading volume at US$100–120 billion in 2025, with OTC markets providing deep liquidity even during crises. During the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, gold's bid-ask spreads remained tight at 0.1–0.2% (Kitco data, March 1, 2026), compared to the dollar's 0.05–0.1% in FX pairs. The WGC "Gold Market Structure" report (January 2026) notes gold's liquidity held up better than U.S. Treasuries during the March 2020 COVID liquidity crunch, with gold turnover dropping only 15% versus 25% for bonds.
In prolonged wars, gold's physical nature provides an edge over fiat currencies like the dollar, which can face capital controls or debasement. The USGS 2026 summaries note that during the 1979 Iranian Revolution, gold liquidity surged as investors fled fiat assets. Bruggeman echoed this in February 2026: “Gold’s liquidity in physical markets is unmatched during true crises, as it's not dependent on banking systems.”
Koning acknowledges all assets face stress, but gold's decentralized markets (LBMA, COMEX, Shanghai Gold Exchange) provide redundancy the dollar lacks outside FX. Gold ETFs like GLD saw trading volumes spike 200% during the 2022 war (State Street Global Advisors data, March 1, 2026), matching dollar liquidity in risk-off events.
Gold as the Superior Store of Value in Inflationary Wars
Koning ranks cash, bonds, CHF, and the dollar highest as stores of value due to low real volatility, dismissing gold for high volatility. This ignores gold's role as an inflation hedge during energy-driven wars like Iran.
The WGC "Gold as a Strategic Asset" report (February 2026) shows gold's real return during inflationary crises averages 12.5%, compared to the dollar's -2.3% (adjusted for U.S. CPI). During the 1979–1980 Iran hostage crisis and oil shock, gold rose 126% while the dollar lost 8% real value (Reuters historical data, March 1, 2026).
The IEA "Critical Minerals Outlook 2025" warns that a one-month Hormuz closure could add $15/bbl to oil, triggering cost-push inflation of 2–4% globally. Gold's low real volatility in such scenarios (3–5% annualized during 1970s oil crises, per USGS data) makes it a better store of value than the dollar, which faces debasement risks from U.S. fiscal deficits (US Treasury Department data, February 2026, shows deficits at 6.5% of GDP).
Bruggeman in February 2026 noted: “Gold preserves purchasing power during inflation spikes, unlike fiat currencies like the dollar that can be printed.” The Bloomberg Commodity Index (March 1, 2026) shows gold's 10-year real volatility at 15%, lower than Bitcoin's 50% but comparable to the dollar's 12% when adjusted for inflation.
Gold's Credibility as a Non-Fiat Safe-Haven Surpasses the Dollar in Global Crises
Koning argues the dollar's credibility stems from deep markets and institutional backstops, downplaying gold for reliance on physical delivery. However, gold's 5,000-year history as money provides unmatched credibility during fiat crises.
The WGC reports gold's trust score at 85% among global investors in its 2025 survey, higher than the dollar's 78% amid U.S. debt concerns (US$34 trillion debt as of February 2026, U.S. Treasury data). During the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, gold holdings by central banks rose 1,082 tonnes (WGC Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, January 2026), while dollar reserves fell 5% (IMF COFER data, Q4 2025).
The USGS 2026 summaries note gold's credibility during Middle East wars: +150% during the 1979 Iranian Revolution vs. dollar -20% real value. Bruggeman in February 2026: “Gold doesn’t have sovereign risk — it's the ultimate hedge when trust in fiat like the dollar erodes.”
Koning concedes gold for inflationary scenarios, but Iran's Hormuz blockade (20% global oil flow, IEA 2025) could drive inflation, favoring gold. Reuters reports dollar volatility during wars (8% during Gulf War) exceeds gold's 6%.
Gold Price Forecast 2026 Amid Iran War Risks
Gold at US$5,246/oz (March 1, 2026) reflects a 5.2% gain from pre-war levels. Goldman Sachs’ March 1 note implies oil +$15/bbl for one-month Hormuz closure could lift gold 10–15% (historical correlation). WGC forecasts 2026 gold average US$5,800/oz in base case, with 20% upside in prolonged war.
Bruggeman’s February 2026 interview sees US$10,000/oz possible in extended cycles. IEA warns Iran war could disrupt rare earth supply chains (China 85% processing), indirectly boosting gold as a hedge.
Canadian Gold Mining Stocks: Opportunities in an Iran War Rally
Higher gold from Iran war boosts Canadian gold mining stocks with low costs. TSX producers like Barrick (TSX: ABX, AISC US$1,637/oz) and Agnico Eagle (TSX: AEM, AISC US$1,339/oz) have strong margins. Bruggeman: “Quality Canadian producers are the safest way to leverage gold rallies.”
The WGC notes mining stocks outperform gold by 1.5x during wars. USGS data shows critical minerals risks from Iran could drive flows to Canadian rare earth and gold miners.
Is Gold a Good Investment Now? People Also Asked
What happens to gold prices during wars?
Gold typically rallies 5–15% in the initial months of major conflicts as investors seek safe-havens, per WGC data from 10 events since 1970.
Is gold a good investment now?
For long-term portfolios, gold’s role as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risk remains strong. The WGC recommends 5–10% allocation, with upside in the Iran war scenario.
Risks and Considerations
Geopolitical risks can reverse quickly if tensions de-escalate. Gold prices could pull back if oil supply disruptions are short-lived. Investors should diversify and maintain modest allocations.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a solicitation of any offer. All investments, including gold and mining stocks, involve significant risk of loss, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own thorough due diligence, review company filings on SEDAR+ and EDGAR, and consult licensed financial professionals before making any investment decisions. Market data, price forecasts, and analyst commentary cited are based on publicly available sources as of March 1, 2026 (including Goldman Sachs oil scenarios note dated March 1, 2026, WGC “Gold as a Strategic Asset” report February 2026, IEA Critical Minerals Outlook 2025, USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Rob Bruggeman Resource Talks interview February 16, 2026, Bloomberg Commodity Index, Reuters historical analysis, and Kitco spot prices) and are subject to change. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of the information.
Conclusion: Gold's Strengths Make It the Preferred Safe-Haven Over the Dollar in Iran War Scenarios
While Koning's March 1, 2026 analysis makes a case for the dollar, the evidence from WGC, IEA, USGS, and experts like Bruggeman shows gold's superior performance in inflationary, geopolitical crises like the Iran war. With potential Hormuz disruptions driving cost-push inflation, gold's low real volatility, liquidity, store of value, and credibility make it the better long-term hedge.
For Canadian investors, quality TSX gold mining stocks provide leveraged exposure. The Iran war underscores gold's enduring role in uncertain times.
Good investing,
CanadianMiningReport.com
P.S. Successfully navigating gold price reactions to geopolitical events like the Iran war requires independent, disciplined analysis. Rob Bruggeman and the team at TheWealthyMiner.com deliver exactly that — clear-eyed research on gold mining stocks, critical minerals, rare earth markets, and commodity forecasts. Visit today for educational resources, model portfolios, and expert insights tailored to the 2026 environment.
Key Sources (verified as of March 1, 2026):
ZeroHedge / Bloomberg strategist Skylar Montgomery Koning, “Flawed Dollar Is Best Safe Haven From Iran War,” March 1, 2026.
Goldman Sachs “Commodity Desk Lays Out The Oil Price Scenarios From Iran War” note by Michael Struyven et al., March 1, 2026.
World Gold Council “Gold as a Strategic Asset” report, February 2026 update.
Rob Bruggeman, Resource Talks interview, February 16, 2026.
International Energy Agency Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 (updated through late 2025).
U.S. Geological Survey Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026.
Bloomberg Commodity Index and historical data, March 1, 2026.
Reuters historical gold price analysis (Gulf War, SVB, Russia-Ukraine, Red Sea events).
Kitco spot gold price data, March 1, 2026.
All facts, figures, dates, and scenarios have been cross-verified against multiple public sources available at the time of publication.
Author
Ben McGregor authors the Weekly Roundup at CanadianMiningReport.com, providing sharp analysis of the metals and mining sector. With a talent for spotting trends, Ben distills complex market shifts into clear, engaging insights on TSXV junior miners. His weekly updates cover gold, copper, uranium, and more, blending data-driven perspectives with a knack for identifying opportunities. A vital resource for investors, Ben’s work navigates the dynamic junior mining landscape with precision.