By Ben McGregor | October 31, 2026
Tavi Costa of Azuria Capital told Investing News on October 29 that gold and silver are retesting levels from his July interview. He described bottoming as a process and named silver miners as his highest-conviction sector for 2027. The interview took place at the New Orleans Investment Conference. Azuria Capital manages funds and recently launched a mining-focused fund offered privately to accredited investors.
What did the conference audience tell Costa about current sentiment?
Costa said the audience appeared fatigued. “I think the sentiment is uh a lot of people are fatigued and asking questions about when the bottom is, which um I have my views on this, but I it feels like a lot of folks are waiting to see more support before stepping back in the market.” He added that most people seemed skeptical this is a bottom and that prices after the correction have further to go. These statements reflect Costa’s observations of conference attendees. They are his opinion, not verified market data.
How does Costa view the bottoming process compared with July?
Costa recalled that bottoming is a process. He noted the market is retesting levels seen around his early-July interview. Gold sits in a very similar place while silver is slightly lower. Copper has continued higher. He said the resilience of copper is meaningful because it is the most cyclical metal. In his view the supply-and-demand issues for gold and silver are comparable, making the catch-up trade more attractive. “I think that the catch-up trade for those two commodities is much more attractive.” Gold and silver miners now look more attractive than copper companies on balance sheets, margins, and valuations. Costa stated that Azuria’s funds hold “probably 65% allocation in silver companies right now.” These are Costa’s views. Verified closing prices on October 30 showed gold at $3,875.65 (down 3.6 percent) and silver near $49.13 (down about 5.8 percent), consistent with his description of retesting similar levels.
What three factors does Costa see weighing on gold?
Costa listed three influences. First, the US dollar has been strong and, in his view, is overbought and potentially near a turning point. Second, long-term rates rose earlier but are starting to roll over; he thinks people underestimate the size of the government. Third, the Federal Reserve shifted from rate cuts to hikes. He believes policymakers are near the end of that stance and that further tightening is limited. “I think that uh we’re getting close to uh transition away from that stance and I don’t think we can tighten conditions much longer and if that’s the case then gold could really benefit here.” These are Costa’s opinions. The Fed held its target range at 3.75–4.00 percent on October 28. Markets have priced elevated odds of a December hike.
How does Costa describe the inflation outlook?
Costa called inflation “sticky, very sticky.” He said people are learning to cope with higher costs and that inflation has a psychological effect on consumers. He expects it to remain. “And as soon as the Fed, you know, sort of show their hands, which right now I think they’re bluffing, uh, that they are looking to bring price stability back, you know, I think hard assets are going to be, you know, the place to be.” This is his opinion based on recent data and his experience growing up in Brazil.
What does Costa mean by the United States becoming an emerging economy?
Costa said the US is running large deficits and now faces questions about who will buy Treasuries. He expects the government to reduce the value of the dollar to improve the trade balance. “I think the US is going to go through that environment we’re going to reduce the weak the dollar the better for the de for the trade balance deficit and that’s going to be one near-term solution.” This is Costa’s view, drawn from patterns he observed in emerging markets.
What is Costa’s position on the bond market?
Costa said he is long call options on the long end of the Treasury market as a hedge to his hard-assets portfolio. He thinks yields can fall further on slower growth. He also believes the government can print money and buy Treasuries if needed and will not default. “They’re not going to lose control. They can literally print money and buy that thing.” He noted this would dilute the currency and create inflation. These are his personal positions and opinions.
How does Costa compare the current decline with 2008?
Costa said he does not compare the move much with 2008. He sees the Fed’s shift from cuts to hikes as the biggest driver. Gold is down about 30 percent from its peak. He sees more upside potential (to $5,000 or $6,000) than further downside (perhaps to $3,800–$4,000). “So, you know, a bigger number to the upside versus a much smaller number to the downside, I think, is my base gaze.” He prefers gradual deployment rather than precise targets. This is Costa’s assessment. Verified data show gold closed October 30 at $3,875.65, roughly 28 percent below its January peak.
Why does Costa believe the mining cycle is not over?
Costa was surprised by limited exploration and M&A. He attributes this to reputational damage from around 2011. Without more spending to shift the supply curve, he sees the cycle lasting longer. “I think this is what is likely to make one of the longest if not the longest mining cycle of history.” He also noted that tech is now more capital-intensive relative to cash flow than mining, a factual observation he cited. These are Costa’s interpretations of industry behavior.
What does copper’s relative strength tell Costa?
Costa said copper’s ability to hold gains while gold and silver fell is important. He believes supply-and-demand imbalances look attractive for all three metals over five to ten years. Institutions appear comfortable buying copper; he expects them to become comfortable with a catch-up in silver and gold. This is his opinion. Copper’s relative resilience is a verified market observation this year.
Did the recent Brazilian election change Costa’s Brazil outlook?
Costa said the election does not change his long-term view. Lula remains president while the upper and lower houses are more conservative. He compared the market reaction to a 2004 pause after strong prior performance. “I think it’s kind of similar if I would guess.” Verified results show Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth term on October 25, 2026, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro. Costa’s comparison is his opinion.
What is Costa’s highest-conviction sector for 2027?
Costa named silver miners. “I’m going to go with uh silver miners.” He cited strong balance sheets, margins, and valuations. He also mentioned some drilling companies. His funds’ 65 percent allocation reflects this view. He expects silver companies to generate substantial free cash flow and potentially pursue buybacks that could squeeze available shares. These are Costa’s convictions and fund positioning.
Why does this matter to a retirement-age reader?
The interview frames the current decline as part of a longer bottoming process rather than a cycle end. For readers who hold or consider gold and silver exposure, Costa’s emphasis on gradual deployment and silver-miner cash flow offers one experienced manager’s checklist. It does not remove near-term rate or dollar risks. Azuria Capital’s new mining fund means Costa’s comments also serve as a description of his firm’s current positioning.
What to watch next
- November 3, 2026: US midterm elections. Results can affect risk appetite into year-end.
- November 6, 2026: US employment report. Strong or weak data will feed December rate pricing.
- December 9, 2026: FOMC rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections.
- Company earnings in early November for major silver producers, which will test the margin and cash-flow picture Costa described.
A dated risk from the last two weeks is the October 30 decline. Gold closed at $3,875.65 (down 3.6 percent) and silver near $49.13 (down about 5.8 percent). The move broke recent support on higher volume. If selling continues into the November data, the bottoming process Costa described could extend further.
This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Canadian Mining Report and its authors may hold positions in securities mentioned.
Sources
- Investing News interview with Tavi Costa of Azuria Capital, filmed October 29, 2026, at the New Orleans Investment Conference (transcript and YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5WcKbZ7SSg)
- GoldPrice.com daily closes for October 30, 2026: https://goldprice.com/gold-price-today/2026-10-30
- Reuters, “Brazil’s Lula wins historic fourth term,” October 25, 2026: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-heads-polls-runoff-between-leftist-lula-bolsonaro-jr-2026-10-25/
- Federal Reserve FOMC calendar, December 8–9, 2026 meeting
- Azuria Capital website regarding private fund offering
