Educational content only, not investment advice. Mining stocks are high risk.
By Ben McGregor
The World Bank's October outlook puts its gold yearly average at exactly $4,000 in 2028, and it forecasts a steeper percentage drop for silver. Published on October 28, its gold and silver price prediction describes yearly averages. It does not say how low a given day can go. Silver also faces extra risks from factory demand, although the Bank calls overall precious-metals risks broadly balanced.
That difference matters. The World Bank forecasts high yearly averages that fall from year to year. It does not promise that gold stays above a daily floor.
What does the World Bank's gold and silver price prediction actually measure?
These remain the Bank's estimates; CMR does not adopt them as its own.
The World Bank gold price forecast appears in the October Commodity Markets Outlook and its price table. Those documents separate forecast years from past prices and give the figures in nominal U.S. dollars.
Nominal means the figures have not been adjusted for inflation. The unit is a troy ounce, the weight measure used for precious metals.
The Bank's gold price forecast for 2026 is a yearly average of $4,600 per troy ounce. Its published average for 2027 is $4,250 per troy ounce. For 2028, the Bank's gold average falls to $4,000 per troy ounce.
The silver row follows the same method. The Bank forecasts a 2026 yearly average of $70 per troy ounce. Its silver yearly average for 2027 falls to $62 per troy ounce. The Bank then forecasts a 2028 silver average of $58 per troy ounce.
These are averages across separate calendar years, so they provide no dated path from one trading day to the next. A high price early in a year can sit beside much lower prices later, while both enter the same yearly average.
Kitco's November 5 report described gold as holding above $4,000 and silver as facing a steeper correction. Its body supplied the Bank's yearly averages, including the 2028 gold average of $4,000.
The World Bank is an international development institution that publishes economic research, including the Commodity Markets Outlook. It is neither a mining company nor a seller of gold, and its forecasts are meant to inform economic work.
CMR's earlier World Bank commodity outlook article covers the wider commodity package. Here, the difference that matters is between what the precious-metals table measures and the risks described with it.
Why could gold stay above $4,000 until 2028?
The report gives reasons for high gold averages. It does not show that every day's price stays above that level. Its demand discussion focuses on investment flows and central-bank purchases.
Together, those sources made up about half of global gold demand during the first half of 2026, according to the Bank. The Bank expects both to ease, while still supporting demand over the next two years.
Central banks hold gold within their reserves, while private investment demand reflects metal held as an investment. These buyers differ from jewellery customers, whose demand the report says has fallen sharply since 2023.
That split matters because a strong total can hide weakness among individual groups. High prices may support financial demand during uncertainty while making jewellery harder to afford.
Supply has another side. The Bank expects only small increases in mine production, and more recycling as high prices encourage people to recover metal.
Recycling returns previously used gold to the market, so new mine output is only one source of available supply. The Bank's gold outlook therefore joins continued financial demand with more supply and weaker jewellery buying.
The report also names possible upside surprises, including stronger official purchases and greater global political tensions. Those possibilities help explain its view of balanced risks, despite the falling yearly averages in its main forecast.
What is the gold price prediction for 2028?
The World Bank's gold price forecast for 2028 is a $4,000 yearly average per troy ounce. The table shows a 5.9% drop from the year before.
That percentage compares one yearly forecast with the next. It does not measure the drop from today's price, and it is not a predicted return for someone buying gold now.
When the forecast was made also matters. The report says its data cutoff was October 14, so it leaves out later market news.
The Bank's own revisions show how estimates can move. October cut the 2026 gold average by $100.
That revision took the figure to $4,600 from April's $4,700 estimate. For 2027, the October gold average of $4,250 replaced April's $4,300 estimate.
Friday's CNBC gold print of $4,059.90 sits $540.10 below the 2026 average. Those revisions are smaller than that market gap. They show the Bank changed its view as conditions developed. Neither figure is a closing price for any one day.
Why does silver face bigger risks than gold?
The strongest evidence is the forecast table plus the Bank's account of industrial demand. Industrial demand means metal used to make goods, including solar cells and electronic equipment.
The Bank's silver yearly average falls 11.4% in its 2027 forecast, compared with a 7.6% drop for gold that year. Its 2028 silver average carries a further 6.5% decline.
Silver's factory uses add a problem beyond the investment flows shared with gold. Manufacturers can respond to expensive metal by changing how they make products and using less of it.
The report points to solar panels, which turn sunlight into electricity. It expects better efficiency and a shift toward copper-based metallization, the conductive layer on a solar cell, to cut silver demand in solar manufacturing.
This is sometimes called thrifting: using less metal for the same job. More solar power can be built while each product uses less silver, so more installations do not always mean more silver demand.
Crux Investor, which publishes mining-investment research, makes the same point. More solar panels can be installed even as each panel uses less silver. It also notes that long panel lives and trouble collecting old panels hold back recycling in the near term.
The Bank also points to other sources of demand if solar uses less silver, including electronics, data centres, automotive uses and power infrastructure. The report still allows growth in some factory uses while the tight market loosens.
Supply also enters its explanation. The Bank expects small gains in mine output and more recycling. Together with softer demand, that should loosen the tight physical market over the next two years.
That baseline differs from the weaker case. A faster switch away from silver in solar power, or weaker world growth, could cut factory use by more than the published averages assume. A silver mining company faces more of that factory-demand swing than a gold producer, whose metal is used less in manufacturing.
Silver's recent swings also have a clear comparison. The Bank reports that silver fell 14% during the third quarter, against gold's 5% decline over the same period.
Those figures show a sharper recent drop in silver, but they do not measure every risk ahead. The report says overall precious-metals risks are broadly balanced.
CMR's review of silver inventories and market balance gives related background. It addresses the physical market, apart from the difference between yearly forecasts and daily prices examined here.
What do Friday's gold and silver prices add?
CNBC's November 6 market update reported spot gold at $4,059.90 per ounce, down 0.7%. In the same report, spot silver rose 0.2% to $51.88.
Spot refers to the latest market price for metal, unlike a forecast average that covers a whole year. These Friday figures are the latest prices used for this Saturday article.
By CMR's subtraction, Friday's reported silver price was $10.12 below the Bank's published 2027 yearly average. That comparison uses the Bank's $62 estimate for the following calendar year.
A yearly forecast can fall and still sit above a recent spot price. Different starting points produce different comparisons, which is why the year and the type of price matter.
CNBC said Friday's gold weakness came from stronger-than-expected U.S. payrolls, higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar. Its report also showed gold up 4.8% for the week despite that day's decline.
That day's split between the metals does not undo the Bank's case about factory demand. One trading day says little about factory use over several years.
It does show why neither metal's next move follows automatically from the forecast table. CMR's account of gold's rebound from its October low covers that shorter market episode.
What could move prices away from the Bank's averages?
The report points to higher-than-expected U.S. interest rates and a stronger dollar as downside risks. Gold and silver pay no interest, so rising yields increase the income given up by holding metal.
A lasting drop in global political tensions could also reduce demand for assets held as protection when the world looks risky. For silver, slower world growth adds the chance of weaker factory use.
On the other side, rising global political tensions or sharper market swings could lift demand for precious metals. Stronger central-bank gold purchases are another upside risk named in the report.
The Bank also says profit-taking and rapid deleveraging could make demand shocks larger. Deleveraging means cutting back positions paid for with borrowed money, which can add selling when those loans become harder to keep.
How I read it. On this evidence, silver has extra risk from factory demand, on top of the interest-rate pressures it shares with gold. The Bank's balanced overall risk view leaves room for results on either side of its published yearly averages.
What does an annual average mean for retirement spending?
For someone near retirement, the difference becomes clear when metal prices are treated as money for regular bills. A yearly average describes a whole year, while bills arrive on particular dates.
Physical bullion pays no interest, and what it can buy depends on the price when the metal is sold. A stronger market later cannot change what an earlier sale brought in.
A yearly average can also hide the sequence of gains and losses. Two periods with similar averages can present different conditions for someone selling metal for cash along the way.
This is a cash-flow difference. It does not say whether either metal is right for any person. The World Bank's table does not supply a schedule of dependable income or sure sale proceeds.
Which dated releases could test the outlook next?
The dated events below look at inflation, interest-rate policy and factory output that matter for the Bank's assumptions. None is a full test of a years-long commodity forecast.
- November 10, 2026: The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases October's Consumer Price Index. Inflation data matter for the report's interest-rate risk.
- November 17, 2026: The Federal Reserve publishes its industrial production release. Factory output helps show silver's industrial use, although the release does not measure how much silver the world consumes.
- November 25, 2026: The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases October's Personal Income and Outlays. Its spending and price figures add evidence about demand and inflation.
- December 8 to 9, 2026: The Federal Reserve holds its next scheduled policy meeting. Its decision and forecasts can test the interest-rate assumptions that affect both metals.
The more specific silver question remains how quickly manufacturers use less metal, and how other uses make up for that. That evidence comes from industry demand reports and production data, not from one policy meeting.
FAQ
What did the World Bank publish about gold and silver?
Its October 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook published yearly average price forecasts in nominal U.S. dollars. The Bank's 2028 averages are $4,000 per troy ounce for gold and $58 for silver. These are published estimates, not guaranteed market prices.
Does the World Bank forecast a $4,000 floor for gold?
The Bank's published gold average for 2028 is exactly $4,000 per troy ounce. A yearly average allows prices above and below that figure and does not set a daily low.
Why does the report identify extra risks for silver?
Silver faces factory-demand risks alongside the interest-rate and currency pressures affecting precious metals. The Bank points to weaker world growth and a faster switch away from silver in solar manufacturing as possible sources of further weakness.
Sources
- Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, World Bank, October 28, 2026. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstreams/b89c473c-d071-4aa4-9f4d-174281aaf0be/download
- Commodity Prices Set to Increase by 23% in 2026 as Global Shocks Mount, World Bank, October 28, 2026. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2026/10/28/commodity-markets-outlook-october-2026
- Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, Price Forecasts, World Bank, October 2026. https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/2ac43f46629cf90c2ea5b8929a343593-0050012026/related/CMO-October-2026-Forecasts.pdf
- World Bank sees gold holding above $4,000 through 2028, but warns silver faces steeper correction, Kitco News, November 5, 2026. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-11-05/world-bank-sees-gold-holding-above-4000-through-2028-warns-silver-faces
- Who We Are: Our Mission to End Poverty, World Bank Group, accessed November 7, 2026. https://www.worldbank.org/en/who-we-are
- Solar Panel Recycling Bottlenecks Sustain Reliance on Mined Silver, Crux Investor, found via CMR Research Library, October 28, 2026. https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/solar-panel-recycling-bottlenecks-sustain-reliance-on-mined-silver
- Gold drops 1% as strong U.S. payrolls boost dollar, yields, CNBC, November 6, 2026. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/06/gold-eases-on-inflation-worries-from-higher-oil-us-payrolls-data-in-focus.html
- Schedule of Releases for the Consumer Price Index, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, accessed November 7, 2026. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm
- Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, Release Dates, Federal Reserve Board, updated October 16, 2026. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/
- Release Schedule, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, accessed November 7, 2026. https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
- Meeting calendars and information, Federal Reserve Board, updated October 28, 2026. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
